The 2024 MLB trade deadline is one week and four days away, but the action has already begun. Luis Arraez was traded more than two months ago now, and in recent weeks we’ve seen other deals involving Aaron Civale and Hunter Harvey. There will be more trades between now and then. Many more, I assure you.
After the trade deadline, we’ll rush to judgment and anoint winners and losers. There’s value in evaluating things based only on what we know at the time. There’s also value in looking back and seeing how things played out, and that’s what we’re going to do now. We’re going to get in the time machine, go back five years, and look at what happened at the 2019 deadline.
Five years isn’t that long ago in the grand scheme of things but it is an eternity in baseball years. The Wild Card Game was still a thing in 2019, so there were fewer postseason spots and also a greater incentive to win the division. I miss the Wild Card Game, honestly. It was Game 7 without the fuss of Games 1-6.
Anyway, let’s go back and examine the 2019 trade deadline, shall we? Here are the biggest moves, the not-so-big moves, and a five-years-too-late scolding of the teams that didn’t do enough.
The last-minute blockbuster
Astros get: RHP Zack Greinke and $24 million
Diamondbacks get: 1B/OF Seth Beer, RHP JB Bukauskas, RHP Corbin Martin, UTIL Josh Rojas
The biggest trade of the 2019 deadline came in after the buzzer. The trade was reported after the deadline — it was completed with the league before the clock ran out, of course — and it was a blockbuster. The Astros added Greinke, who to that point had made 23 starts with a 2.90 ERA, to a stacked rotation that already included Gerrit Cole and peak Justin Verlander.
“A little reminiscent of the (Verlander trade in 2017) and obviously with a hard deadline this year, it was important we get something done,” then-GM Jeff Luhnow said after the trade (via MLB.com). “… For us, Zack Greinke was at the very top of our list in terms of players that we thought could impact our chances to win the World Series this year and could really fit in well on this club for the next couple of years while we still have our entire offensive unit together.”
Houston had a comfortable 7.5-game division lead on the morning of the trade deadline. Adding Greinke was not about winning the AL West or getting to the postseason. The Astros brought in Greinke to put them over the top in October. To give them a fearsome 1-2-3 rotation punch with Cole and Verlander. Three Hall of Fame talents, all of whom were at the top of their game at the time.
A rotation addition was necessary too. Cole and Verlander were great, obviously, and Wade Miley was a fine No. 3. Otherwise, the Astros had cycled through No. 4 and 5 types all season. Cole, Verlander, and Miley led the team in starts. Brad Peacock was fourth with 15 starts. Greinke’s 10 regular season starts were the fifth most on the club. He halted the revolving door.
In those 10 regular season starts, Greinke pitched to a 3.02 ERA, and the Astros cruised to the division title. His postseason was a bit more uneven: 4.68 ERA in five starts, though he was excellent in Game 7 of the World Series. Greinke held the Nationals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings on only 80 pitches, and exited with a one-run lead. He did his job that night. The bullpen did not.
Greinke had two years remaining on his contract at the time of the trade and 2020-21 didn’t go quite as well: 4.12 ERA and 2.3 WAR in 238 innings. Solid production, but not a frontline starter. The priority was elevating the 2019 team and Greinke did that even though the Astros fell short in the World Series. The next two seasons were something to worry about later.
For the D-backs, the trade was as much about clearing payroll as accumulating talent. They were 16.5 games behind the Dodgers at the deadline and 3.5 games behind the second wild-card spot, though there were four teams ahead of them. Simply put, the club was not playing well. The D-backs lost 21 of their 38 games leading up to the trade deadline.
The four players Arizona received in the trade were all solid prospects, and all four would eventually play in the big leagues with the D-backs, though only Rojas had staying power. The Diamondbacks covered $24 million of the $77 million or so remaining on Greinke’s contract, so all told, the trade netted them four young players and $53 million in savings spread across 2019-21.
“I know where we are relative to the standings.”
“We haven’t been performing very well recently,” stated D-backs GM Mike Hazen following the trade. “But we were able to address some long-term needs and spread out those needs without impacting our position player group. We believe that this team still has a chance to compete.”
The D-backs acquired veteran Mike Leake from the Mariners to replace Greinke’s innings and continued to push forward after the deadline, finishing the season with an 85-77 record, just four games out of a wild-card spot. While it’s uncertain if they would have made the postseason with Greinke, the team showed resilience.
The cash savings from the trade were reinvested into the roster, resulting in the signing of Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85 million contract. However, Bumgarner struggled with a 5.23 ERA before being released in April the following year. Overall, the trade of Greinke did not pan out as expected for the D-backs.
On the other hand, the Nationals made significant strides after acquiring Daniel Hudson from the Blue Jays. Hudson played a crucial role in their postseason run, culminating in a World Series title. The unexpected success of the trade showcased the Nationals’ ability to turn their season around and make a championship-winning move.
In contrast, the Cubs’ acquisition of Nick Castellanos did not propel them into the postseason despite his impressive performance. The team’s lackluster performance after the trade underscored the challenges they faced in making a postseason push. The Tigers, on the other hand, did not benefit significantly from the trade, as the players they received did not have a major impact on their team. Castellanos accumulated 1.8 WAR in 51 games with the Cubs, while Lange has a total of 1.4 WAR in parts of four seasons with Detroit.
In a challenge trade, the Marlins acquired SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Zac Gallen. This rare prospect-for-prospect trade saw each team address their respective weaknesses by trading from positions of depth.
Since the trade, Gallen has emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball with the Diamondbacks, receiving Cy Young votes and consistently outperforming the league average. Chisholm has shown promise but has dealt with injuries and position changes, making him a potential trade asset for the Marlins as they continue to rebuild.
Another notable trade from the 2019 deadline saw Cleveland acquire LHP Logan Allen, LHP Scott Moss, OF Yasiel Puig, OF Franmil Reyes, and 3B Victor Nova in exchange for RHP Trevor Bauer. This trade allowed Cleveland to bolster their offense while parting ways with Bauer, who was becoming a source of frustration for the team.
These trades demonstrate the dynamics of buying and selling at the same time, as teams look to address their needs and build for the future through strategic player acquisitions and trades. Do you remember when Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer to the Reds in exchange for a package of five players? The Reds got Bauer to help them contend in 2020. Cleveland used the trade to bolster their Major League club and organizational depth. San Diego added a top-flight prospect in Taylor Trammell. After the trade, Cleveland’s offense improved but they still missed the postseason. Bauer went on to win the NL Cy Young with the Reds in 2020. The Reds received a compensatory draft pick after Bauer left in free agency. Trammell was traded to the Mariners in a later deal. Overall, the trade had mixed results for all parties involved. Bailey and Roark teamed up for a total of 13 starts, posting a 4.42 ERA for the A’s in the 2019 season. This was a significant improvement over the previous starters – Tanner Anderson, Aaron Brooks, Marco Estrada, and Daniel Mengden – who had a combined ERA of 5.90 in 37 starts. Despite the contribution of Bailey and Roark, the A’s fell short in the postseason, losing to the Rays in the Wild Card Game. Neither Hannah nor Merrell have made it to the major leagues.
The Marlins and Rays have a history of making frequent trades, with nine trades between the two teams since 2019. One notable trade involved sending Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards to Tampa in exchange for Ryne Stanek and Jesús Sánchez. Anderson excelled as a reliever for a few years but is often remembered for his performance in the 2020 World Series. Richards was later traded to the Brewers, while Stanek did not work out with the Marlins. Sánchez remains with Miami, showing promise as a platoon bat.
In another trade, catcher Martín Maldonado moved from the Royals to the Cubs and then to the Astros in quick succession. Despite his limited offensive contributions, Maldonado was highly regarded by Astros pitchers. The Astros also acquired Aaron Sanchez, who played a key role in a combined no-hitter in his first appearance with the team.
Looking back at the 2019 trade deadline, several teams missed out on addressing key needs. The Dodgers, despite their strong position, did not bolster their bullpen and paid the price in the postseason. The Twins lacked a reliable starter but failed to make a move, resulting in a playoff sweep. The Yankees, who needed rotation help, also stayed quiet at the deadline and faced consequences in the postseason.
Overall, the 2019 season saw a mix of successful and missed opportunities in the trade market, shaping the outcomes for several MLB teams. sentence: “The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog.”
Rewritten sentence: “The fast brown fox leaps over the sluggish dog.”