The Favorites
Candidates whose longest current odds are +1000 or shorter
Please don’t bet on the No. 2 overall pick. Alex Sarr (+1000) shot 19.1% from the floor at Summer League. Do you know how hard that is to do as a center? Sarr has long-term upside. He cannot create his own shot at the moment. This is a counting stats award. The Wizards have no one to create shots for him. I’m more optimistic about Matas Buzelis (+1000) providing value as a rookie, but I can’t see him actually winning this trophy. Again, think counting stats. The Bulls traded for Josh Giddey to give him the ball. Zach LaVine, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic are still here. He’s not going to accumulate numbers.
I don’t think the odds are long enough to justify a Stephon Castle (+1000) bet. If he’s a league-average 3-point shooter as a rookie he probably wins the award. There’s just no real evidence that he’s going to be there so soon. He’s barely even an average free-throw shooter at this stage, and that’s going to pose problems in an offense with a Hall of Fame point guard (Chris Paul) and one who swung the team’s entire plus-minus whenever he played last season (Tre Jones). The touches probably won’t be there for a 3-point shooter who hits below 30% of his attempts to accumulate the needed stats.
There will likely be a moment in which a Reed Sheppard (+700) bet makes some sense. I don’t think it will in the preseason. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are ahead of him in the backcourt pecking order. Amen Thompson is as well, though he isn’t as easily positionally classified. Green and Alperen Sengun, at least as of this writing, are both playing for contracts, so it’s hard to know how stat-focused either of them will be, and Ime Udoka is extremely demanding of young players. Sheppard is going to have to prove that he can hang on the floor defensively. He’ll do so eventually. Though unconventional, he generates value through turnover-generation, and the Rockets have the personnel to cover his deficiencies. They badly need his shooting. It just seems more likely that he’s acclimated over time and takes on a bigger role as the season progresses. Check in on him around Dec. 1, especially if you’re dubious of any other candidate taking a commanding early lead.
Zach Edey (+550) is the only player in this tier that I’d feel comfortable making a preseason bet on. We’re relatively certain he’s going to start. Jonas Valanciunas set a blueprint for how the Grizzlies plan to use this type of player, and if Edey can replicate his numbers he’s going to be in the thick of this thing. He’s an old rookie at 22, so the learning curve will be shorter, and while there are certainly playoff question marks on defense, his pure size and the role clarity he gains by standing next to Jaren Jackson Jr. means he’s going to rack up blocks.
This may sound like a risky choice, but the truth is that Edey is the only rookie in this class who offers certainty in both role and production. Everyone else is still a question mark.
In the middle of the pack, my top pick is Bub Carrington at +1600. Playing for Washington gives him an advantage as he doesn’t need to rely on others to set him up. He has the freedom to take shots and showcase his skills on a team focused on developing its youth. Another candidate worth considering is Rob Dillingham at +1700, with the potential to shine as a rookie bench scorer for a team like the Timberwolves. However, his competition with Terrance Shannon Jr. might hinder their chances.
In the long shots category, team dynamics play a crucial role in determining a player’s success. Yves Missi at +20000 could surprise with the Pelicans given their need for a center. Isaiah Collier at +8000 has the opportunity to shine if he can stand out among veteran guards in Utah. Kyshawn George at +8000 benefits from the Wizards’ focus on developing their young talent, similar to Carrington. When looking beyond the top rookie prospects, it’s essential to keep an eye on the preseason to spot any unexpected standouts. Occasionally, one or two rookies will emerge as dark horse candidates for rookie honors. Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes despite not being lottery picks. While they couldn’t contend with the strong rookie class of last year, this year presents a more open field. If you notice any rookies making waves in preseason games, especially in situations where they have the opportunity to put up impressive numbers, it might be worth considering them as potential breakout candidates. Keep an eye out for any early buzz surrounding these under-the-radar rookies and consider taking a preseason flyer on them.