College baseball’s regular season gets underway today, which means it’s finally time to think about the Major League Baseball amateur draft.
The Washington Nationals won’t be placed on the clock in an official manner until Sunday, July 13, when MLB kicks off the All-Star Game festivities in Atlanta. Nevertheless, I’ve spent the start of the year compiling my preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects in the class. As always, these are formed through a combination of conversations with scouting and analytical personnel; firsthand observation; and historical analysis. There’s some personal bias baked in as well.
Before getting to the rankings, I’ll note that this draft is viewed as having an obvious top tier that consists of four players: FSU lefty Jamie Arnold, Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, Oklahoma prep infielder Ethan Holliday, and UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner. There are other talented players who could make the leap and join that tier, but for now those four seem to be the cream of the crop.
The rest of the class is messy, with one scout expressing the opinion that, after a certain point early on, you could start drawing names from the hat and come up with an agreeable top 50. I didn’t leave it to chance for this exercise, but the smoothness of the class is something to keep in mind if you don’t see your favorite player represented.
With all the fine print out of the way, let’s get to the rankings. (And remember, a lot can change in five months, so treat this list for what it is: a snapshot in time.)
1. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
The quick hook: Lefty with good stuff and command
If you haven’t watched Arnold, then the best way to visualize his delivery is to stitch together parts from other great southpaws. He combines Clayton Kershaw’s leg kick, complete with hands puppeteering the knee ever higher, with Chris Sale’s longer arm stroke and lower release slot. Forget the anxiety of influence; Arnold has the potential to become someone others model their games after in due time. His arsenal contains three high-quality offerings, including a pair of distinct fastballs: a four-seamer that elicits whiffs and a sinker that induces ground balls, both at elite rates. He also possesses a plus or better slider that he’s shown the capacity for backfooting against right-handed batters and a changeup (though it makes fewer public appearances than Thomas Pynchon). Arnold has a better strike-throwing track record than Hagen Smith, the No. 5 pick and the top left-hander in last year’s draft, and one veteran talent evaluator estimated he’s ahead of where Paul Skenes was at this point in his platform year. That doesn’t mean Arnold will reach Skenes’ heights (remember that Skenes discovered an elite pitch, a sinker, shortly after turning pro), but it makes him the current most compelling candidate to go No. 1.
2. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
The quick hook: Power, discipline, and risk
LaViolette is the most fearsome hitter in the class, having homered 50 times and reached base in 43.3% of his attempts over his first two collegiate seasons. That he did so while receiving ample run in center field makes him sound like a left-handed Aaron Judge, dunnit? Hold that thought. Predictably, LaViolette pairs excellent swing decisions with 70-grade strength, the kind that allows him to hammer opposite-field home runs despite his operation featuring minimal hand movement. The blemish here is that LaViolette is prone to swinging and missing on pitches within the zone, triggering alarms about his bat-to-ball skills. Again, that sounds like Judge … except Judge never struck out more than 22% of the time as a collegiate, let alone the nearly 29% mark LaViolette posted in SEC play. Even if you view the SEC as a High-A equivalent, there’s a real chance strikeout creep leaves him on the wrong side of 30% by the time he reaches the majors. (Strikeouts are socially acceptable more now than ever before, yet only four qualified MLB hitters last season cleared 30%, testifying to how difficult it is to remain productive with that kind of K rate.) There’s no denying LaViolette can walk and bop with the best of them; if he can connect more frequently this spring, he could find himself as the first player off the board come July.
3. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
The quick hook: Good lineage and left-handed power, but some questions persist
Baseball is the Holliday family business. Ethan’s father Matt was a seven-time All-Star; his brother Jackson is a future All-Star; and his uncle Josh has been Oklahoma State’s head coach since 2013. It’s tempting to compare relatives but, in this case, it’s more instructive to contrast them, specifically the scions. Whereas past Jackson possessed bat-to-ball skills and up-the-middle twitchiness, present Ethan trades in size and strength. He’s likely to wind up at third base, and perhaps in the cleanup spot if he fulfills his promise. Therein lies the rub: Ethan remains too prone to whiffing within the zone, as well as too inclined to chase outside of it for anyone’s comfort; his power production over the last two years, meanwhile, has been closer to “good” than “exceptional,” indicating he may not slug his way through it. Jackson made a big leap during his platform season, catapulting from my preseason No. 41 to the No. 1 overall selection in a matter of months. Ethan won’t need to cover as much ground to become the first set of brothers in MLB history to each be selected No. 1 overall, but he’ll need to exhibit some growth to make that dream a reality.
Tyler Bremner, a right-handed pitcher from UC Santa Barbara, is known for his elite changeup, which is one of the best individual offerings in his class. He excels at mixing pitches and getting batters to chase outside of the strike zone with both his changeup and slider. While some evaluators have concerns about how his game will translate to the professional level due to the quality of his competition and in-zone whiff rate, Bremner still deserves a spot in the top four. With the potential to follow in the footsteps of past UCSB top-10 pick Dillon Tate, Bremner has the talent to make a significant impact at the next level.
Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana
Overview: Taylor has been a standout offensive player at Indiana, showcasing a blend of contact, power, and plate discipline. While he has excelled against Big 10 competition, questions linger about his ability to maintain success at higher levels. Additionally, his defensive projection as a left fielder adds pressure for his bat to carry him. Despite these concerns, Taylor’s offensive prowess and potential make him a candidate to break into the top 10 picks.
Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Overview: Irish is a promising left-handed hitter with strong offensive skills and the ability to adjust at the plate. While his hitting ability is a major asset, questions surround his defensive capabilities, as his arm accuracy can be inconsistent. Despite this uncertainty, Irish’s bat is likely to make him a top 30 pick in the draft, even if his position remains undetermined.
Aiva Arquette, SS/3B, Oregon State
Overview: Arquette is a physically imposing infielder with power potential and the ability to play on the left side of the field. His improved strikeout rate and defensive skills bode well for his draft stock, with the potential to move up in the rankings with a strong season. While there are concerns about his walk rate, Arquette’s upside could make him a rising prospect in the draft.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Overview: Summerhill is a center fielder with a strong hit tool and athletic abilities. While he has shown good contact skills and on-base ability, scouts are looking for more power production from his frame. If Summerhill can increase his power output, he has the potential to solidify himself as a mid-first-round prospect in the draft.
Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
Overview: Cannarella is a speedy center fielder who overcame a shoulder injury to maintain a strong offensive performance. While he excels in contact and base stealing, his lack of power may deter some teams from using a first-round pick on him. Despite this concern, Cannarella’s overall skill set and resilience make him a potential first-round selection in the draft.
Cameron Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (IL)
Overview: Appenzeller is an athletic left-handed pitcher with room for growth and improvement. With increasing velocity and a developing repertoire, he has the potential to become a starting pitcher with solid command. Despite his commitment to Tennessee, a strong showing in the spring could lead to Appenzeller forgoing college and entering the draft.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Overview: Hernandez is a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher with potential, but also comes with risks. While some teams may take a chance on him as a mid-rotation starter, his profile is considered more of a gamble in the draft. Understanding the probabilistic nature of the draft, Hernandez’s fate will depend on his health and development leading up to the draft.
Tre Phelps, OF/1B/3B, Georgia, has shown promise with his control despite a long arm action that features elbow creep, as well as his secondary pitches. He clearly has strength and athleticism working in his favor, indicating that he will probably go higher than his current rank suggests.
Phelps’ offensive profile may not be conventional, but it has undeniable appeal given the weak crop of collegiate bats. As a draft-eligible sophomore coming off an impressive freshman campaign, Phelps has showcased good bat-to-ball and barrel-to-ball skills. However, his lack of a true defensive home may present a challenge, as he has bounced between corner spots and may see time at second base in the future. Despite this, Phelps’ hitting abilities make him an intriguing prospect for teams in need of offensive firepower. Dean Curley, a versatile infielder from Tennessee, is a draft-eligible sophomore known for his well-rounded skill set. While his arm is considered a standout tool, Curley lacks any extreme strengths or weaknesses in other areas of his game. He demonstrates a solid ability to make contact and control the strike zone, along with average or better strength and good instincts on the basepaths. There is a possibility that he could handle shortstop initially before transitioning to third base. With the scarcity of high-caliber collegiate hitters in this draft class, Curley has the potential to rise in the rankings with a strong performance, especially during SEC matchups.
Nick Dumesnil, an outfielder from California Baptist, is projected to be a top draft pick despite playing for a smaller school. He excelled in 2024, followed by a solid showing in the Cape Cod League, showcasing his hitting prowess and speed on the bases. While mid-major prospects are often viewed cautiously by MLB teams, Dumesnil’s dynamic skill set and potential to play center field could make him an attractive pick within the first 50 selections.
Quentin Young, a high school player from Oaks Christian in California, comes from a baseball family with a rich legacy. His uncles, Dmitri and Delmon, had lengthy careers in the majors, and Quentin shows promise with his quick bat speed and projectable 6-foot-5 frame. Although he struggles with strikeouts and his defensive position is uncertain, Young’s potential to develop plus power and his commitment to LSU make him a player to watch in the upcoming draft.
Angel Cervantes, a right-handed pitcher from Warren High School in California, is a prep prospect with a full arsenal of pitches. Despite the risks associated with high school pitchers, Cervantes has the potential to be a top 50 pick due to his diverse pitch repertoire, command, and young age. Teams may be tempted to select him early to prevent him from honoring his commitment to UCLA.
Landon Harmon, a right-handed pitcher from East Union High School in Mississippi, is another promising prep player with a projectable future. With a fastball that reaches the upper 90s and a tall, athletic frame, Harmon has the potential to add more velocity and refine his secondary pitches over time. While there are concerns about the development of his off-speed offerings, his raw talent and strike-throwing ability make him an intriguing prospect for teams looking for a high-ceiling pitcher.
Matt Scott, a pitcher from Stanford, is a wildcard in this draft class. Despite his inconsistent collegiate performance and decreased velocity, Scott possesses a tall stature and quality pitch arsenal that could lead to a breakout season. While his future success is uncertain, teams with strong player development programs may be willing to take a chance on Scott’s innate talent and potential for improvement. sentence: Please rewrite the sentence for me.