Fantasy baseball is a game of opinions. We’re not always going to agree, and that’s good. That’s why we play this game for six months a year.
Last week, we tackled some polarizing pitchers. Today we look at some polarizing hitters.
Shohei Ohtani (Util), Dodgers, & Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF), Braves
I have Ohtani on my fade list, but see it for what it’s worth — a very mild fade. In a world that tabs Ohtani as the automatic No. 1 pick, I prefer him at 2 or 3. The steals from last year are a horrible bet to repeat. It’s not worth it to Ohtani’s health maintenance. He never stole more than 26 bases before 2024, and part of the spike last year was the novelty of the 50-50 chase.
Ohtani and the Dodgers are smart. It’s not about beating the Rockies or the Reds in May, it’s about being prepared to defend the ring in October.
My call: Regression is not fun, but it sure feels inevitable. So there that is. And don’t forget how often Ohtani was hurt in Anaheim. The Dodgers are ready for six months of load management. They’re already in the playoffs. That’s not a scenario for someone I can take first overall.
On Acuña, he’s also going to curb the running — and he openly admits it. You know the rule on player and team quotes — be careful with the sunshine stuff, but believe every negative thing they tell you. That’s where the truth serum is.
My call: Acuña’s had two major injuries in his career and for preservation, the bags need to be traded in. Oh, he’ll run some. But given that he won’t be ready Opening Day and he’s already talking about maintenance and game-changes needed, I won’t touch the market price of a low-30s ADP.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs
Look, Tucker has always been great since he became a regular. But last year was going to be his signature year, his Sgt. Pepper season. Just about any stat will get you to the same conclusion, but let’s use the 181 OPS+ as the back-of-napkin illustration. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani beat it, among league qualifiers. No one else did.
So Tucker’s “all grownsed up now,” as they say at the Apollo. But now he’s on the Cubs, not the Astros. My friend Gene McCaffrey had a great take — an open question — about Tucker and this curious trade:
I’m not ranking him higher until I understand why the Astros traded him. The idea in baseball is to *have* players like Kyle Tucker, not trade them. The Astros surely know this and traded him anyway. Reading between the lines, and I could be wrong, I think they were mighty mad that he missed three months after a HBP. I saw the play, he didn’t even look like he was going to leave the game. After he finally came back he only attempted one steal.
Tucker’s always been a high-percentage stealer but maybe he’s another hitting star who decides to bag it. Or maybe 2024 was an aberration after the injury, I don’t know. He’s playing for his next contract, which matters to some. I’ll admit I worry a bit on guys after they receive the big paydays, especially if the team context changes (Colton and the Wolfman got on this early and they’ve made a mint off those fades). But basically everyone is trying. It’s not like Tucker ever looked half-committed out there.
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My call: So, I’m afraid to draft Tucker and I’m afraid to not draft him. Maybe the Cubs are my own personal version of a scary movie, I’m always expecting something bad to happen. That is not a tangible reason, I know. I still pine for what six months of Kyle Tucker 2024 would have added up to.
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox
The funny thing is, the 2024 breakout was always hiding in plain sight. He just needed a full season of commitment. The slash lines from the last two years are nearly identical. The work on the bases, same stuff. The power seemed to bloom (13 more homers), but his slugging only bumped 10 points. When career years happen in the early 20s, we say “To the moon!” When they pop in the later 20s, we get suspicious.
My call: I suspect the best approach is to ask “Who is Duran this year?” and not chase Duran 2024. I don’t think he’s a massive overpay, just a mild one with an ADP in the low 20s. The park is a gift and the lineup looks delightful. Boston might even be the divisional favorites given the awful spring the Yankees are having. But I think the market has slightly overreacted, so Duran is another mild fade for me.
Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies
When I was examining outfielders around the holidays, Castellanos struck me as the most obvious fade in the world. The career arc is moving downward, and while player growth and development isn’t always linear, skill deterioration almost always is. Now it’s an age-33 season. Alas, a lot of industry folks I respect are picking Castellanos as the boring-vet value play, and while I don’t bang the drum for the Ibañez All-Stars as much as I used to, they’re playing to my emotions.
My call: I drafted Castellanos once this year, just in case they’re right. I’ll fade him the rest of the spring, just in case I’m right. At least the park and the lineup provide buoyancy.
Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, Rockies
He’s not the biggest name on this list but he might fit the conceit of the column the best. Toglia conked 21 homers in 116 games, we can’t unsee that.
He also recorded 147 strikeouts and had a batting average of .218, which is hard to ignore. His performance at home versus on the road was peculiar, with 17 of his home runs coming away from Coors Field and a higher OPS on the road. The Rockies should consider giving Toglia some time to develop before making any decisions. Now, shifting the focus to McCaffrey, who famously stated that “Colorado is a club that can’t wait to get its best team off the field.”
This can be interpreted as a polite way of saying “impatient.”
In the past, first base was a haven for fantasy baseball enthusiasts. However, it has become more challenging in recent years. It is essential to explore the lower tier of first basemen and identify a suitable candidate. If Toglia isn’t your top choice, perhaps consider Tyler Soderstrom or Ryan Mountcastle. How does Carlos Santana continue to perform at his age? Currently, Soderstrom stands out to me in the market, but I had my eyes on Toglia for a best-ball draft, anticipating a fluctuating performance but ultimately a strong power output by the season’s end.
My prediction: Batters with a high strikeout rate and a tendency for fly balls experience significant highs and lows. It remains to be seen if the Rockies will allow Toglia to progress naturally. After all, he’s not blocking the next Todd Helton. Take the time to assess his potential. This advice also applies to fantasy managers, considering his ADP is beyond the 200th pick.