The following players are overvalued compared to ADP — not necessarily “busts” as they can still retain value. Go here for sleepers.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte, 2B
Marte now carries a top-30 ADP after coming off a career best season, so proceed with caution. He hasn’t reached double-digit stolen bases since 2019 (when he had 10), and he’s missed an average of 34 games over the last four seasons. Marte was legitimately awesome in 2024, posting a 151 wRC+ that ranked top 10 in baseball. But he owns a career 118 wRC+, and OOPSY projects Marte to come back down to 25 home runs in 2025 (over an optimistic 147 games played).
Marte is due for regression at the plate, and he doesn’t run much. His Yahoo ADP was outside 100 in 2024, and he’ll now be 31 years old. Fade Marte’s ADP.
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
The A’s aren’t loaded with players with high ADPs, and the change in venues will be favorable for their hitters. Mason Miller’s new ADP is risky given his injury history, but he also might be the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now (and he easily led all relievers in K-BB% last season). Enter Severino, who’s the Athletics’ new ace and highest drafted SP. He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home last season but a 5.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP when not in the extremely pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
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Severino now will be pitching in a smaller park and in warmer weather with the move to Sacramento (where the A’s will share parks with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliates). There are better late-round fliers for those searching for SP help in deeper leagues.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF
Acuña is set to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season while recovering from his second ACL surgery. He’s reportedly looked great at the plate during Atlanta’s camp, but fantasy managers should be concerned about Acuña openly stating he plans on “taking it easy” on the base paths after returning. Atlanta is trying to avoid Acuña having to deal with lingering discomfort that followed him throughout the 2022 season following his first ACL procedure, when he posted a 115 wRC+. Acuña was also quietly pedestrian over 50 games at the plate (105 wRC+) before suffering his knee injury last season.
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Most projection systems remain extremely bullish, calling for 35+ steals over 120ish games. Other systems manually changed after Acuña’s quote painted a more pessimistic outcome.
Acuña is one season removed from going 40/70, so there’s obvious upside, but there’s real risk of him running significantly less in 2025. He’s a fade as a borderline top-30 pick in Yahoo drafts.
Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, SP
Eflin has benefitted greatly from pitching at Tropicana Field over the last two years, including posting a 1.94 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP there last season. He recorded a 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP outside of pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay. Tropicana Field has increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, while Oriole Park has decreased Ks by 8% over that span. Baltimore is also moving in its left-field fences in 2025, so Eflin will have a full season in a tougher environment.
Gunnar Henderson also carries some risk given his high ADP (7.7), modest SB projections, second half drop in production and entering the season with an intercostal injury.
Boston Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, RP
Hendriks has struggled this spring while competing to be Boston’s closer. Aroldis Chapman has had control issues, but he’s striking batters out and was a top 10 reliever after the All-Star break last season. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock are also capable options of securing the Red Sox’s closer’s role. Hendriks’ last productive season was back in 2022, and his previous velocity looks unlikely to return.
Chicago Cubs: Seiya Suzuki, OF
Suzuki owns a legit 129 wRC+ over three years in the majors, but he’s also missed an average of 35 games each season. He’ll turn 31 years old this summer, and Suzuki’s batting average is at risk of falling in 2025. His .282 BA last year came with a .255 expected BA, which was one of the biggest differences in MLB. Suzuki’s .370 BABIP was the highest in baseball, and it also would’ve led the league in 2022 and 2023, which is especially surprising for a right-handed corner outfielder who usually puts balls in the air.
Suzuki is being drafted next to Luis Robert Jr. in Yahoo leagues, but the latter’s projections are dramatically better.
Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B
A depleted White Sox roster gives few options here, and it also hurts Vaughn’s counting stats. He managed just 55 runs scored and 70 RBI over 619 plate appearances last season. Vaughn is a fine floor pick if you need to fill first base, but he’s never reached 70 runs scored or surpassed 80 RBI or 21 homers during his career. Vaughn has three career stolen bases.
The Chicago White Sox’s lineup could worsen if Luis Robert Jr. is traded. The team is projected to once again score the fewest runs in baseball in 2025. Jesús Tinoco had an impressive 2.03 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP after joining the Marlins last season, while Anthony Bender has also shown flashes of dominance when healthy, providing Miami with alternatives. However, save opportunities may be scarce for the Marlins as they are projected to win only 62 games this season.
In terms of fantasy baseball, Brice Turang of the Milwaukee Brewers was a breakout player last year but is projected to regress in steals and power. Similarly, Trevor Megill’s performance declined in the second half of last season, making him a fantasy fade option. The Brewers have several potential ninth-inning replacements, including Craig Yoho.
Royce Lewis of the Minnesota Twins has shown potential in the past but has been plagued by injuries, making him a risky pick in fantasy drafts. Mark Vientos of the New York Mets had a strong power performance last season but saw his strikeout rate increase significantly in the second half.
Max Fried of the New York Yankees is being drafted as a top-level starter despite moving to a park that may not favor him as much as his previous one. Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies is another player whose draft position may be too high given his modest strikeout rate.
Bryan Reynolds of the Pittsburgh Pirates is a safe option but may lack the upside of other players in his ADP range. Willy Adames of the San Francisco Giants had a career year last season but may not be able to replicate those numbers this year. Robert Suárez of the San Diego Padres is the closer but faces competition from other strong relievers on the team. Adames’ run production benefited from hitting mostly cleanup, but his RBI total was largely due to historic opportunities. He had the most plate appearances with runners in scoring position since 2012 and tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the most three-run homers in a season in MLB history. Adames excelled with runners in scoring position, posting a 1.073 OPS, but struggled with a .694 OPS with the bases empty.
Additionally, Adames signed with the San Francisco Giants in the offseason, moving to a more favorable pitcher’s park. The Giants have lower home run rates for right-handed batters compared to the Milwaukee Brewers. Adames will have to adjust to the different air density in San Francisco, which may impact his ability to hit home runs. The Giants have not had a 30-homer hitter since 2004, highlighting the challenges of hitting in their ballpark.
Furthermore, Adames has never been a big stolen base threat, and he joins a San Francisco team that was the least likely to attempt stolen bases last season. His move to the Giants may limit his stolen base opportunities compared to his previous teams. Furthermore, his defensive performance has been subpar over the past two seasons, raising the possibility that up-and-coming talent Alan Roden could potentially take over George Springer’s position in the future.
In terms of the Washington Nationals, CJ Abrams, a 24-year-old shortstop, has room for improvement after struggling with a .203 batting average and a disappointing 64 wRC+ in the latter half of the previous season. With counting stats continuing to be a concern for the Nationals, Abrams also possesses a lackluster Statcast page and a career 94 wRC+. While his stolen bases are a positive attribute, there are other players available later in drafts who offer similar skills. In Yahoo leagues, Abrams is being selected alongside players like Oneil Cruz, Jacob deGrom, and Wyatt Langford, but other options like James Wood may be more favorable choices. following sentence:
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