The Friday NBA schedule features a seven-game slate. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns have failed to meet their preseason expectations, as the Suns are currently a half-game out of even making the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed and a half-game out of climbing into the top six and avoiding the Play-In. The Timberwolves (-7.5, 224.5) have a relatively clean injury report, so their high-profile players like Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert could be attractive options for NBA player props on betting sites. Edwards scored 44 points against the Suns on March 2 and has +680 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook to score 40 points again on Friday.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Nikola Jokic Over 2.5 steals + blocks (+120)
Jokic has gone Over this number in two of his last three games and a matchup against the Jazz has all the ingredients of this happening again. The Jazz have been blocked more than any team the league (6.3 per game) and have the most turnovers (16.8 per game) in the NBA. Jokic had four steals in their last meeting on Jan. 30 and Denver being 17.5-point favorites favors his chances at the Over, according to Oh. Bet365 currently offers the best odds at +120.
“Likely blowouts don’t correlate to Unders with Jokic,” Oh told SportsLine. “Over the last few seasons as -11.5 or better favorites, Jokic is 14-5 over this number.”
Kevin Durant Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+100)
The model projects Durant at 1.8 steals + blocks for Friday, and the chance to get even money makes it even more attractive. Durant has gone Under this number in five of his last six games, but he’s gone Over it in six of his last nine against the Timberwolves while averaging 2.3 during that span. The 15-time All-Star is averaging 2.1 steals + blocks this season and Oh sees value in Durant returning to his season-long and previous norms against the Timberwolves. He’s minus-money odds on other betting apps, so +100 odds at Bet365 is the best place to make this wager.
“He has no steals in his last four games and sometimes that’s just a matter of luck of where the ball bounces on a tip and who gets credited by the official scorekeeper,” Oh said. “Eyeballing his game log, a four-game no-steal stretch is already his longest in recent seasons, so he is due to break out tonight.”
Stephen Curry Over 1.5 steals + blocks points (+100)
Curry (pelvic contusion) has missed the last two games, but he appears to be on the right side of questionable for a Friday return, according to coach Steve Kerr’s comments. The Warriors need their superstar back after dropping two straight without him in the lineup and falling to seventh in the Western Conference. Curry had three steals on Monday against the Nuggets and the Warriors will play the Pelicans, who rank 18th in turnovers per game (14.1).
“After missing two games, Curry has a good chance of returning and with the Warriors dropping their last two in ugly fashion, I am expecting (hoping) that he not only returns, but he is good to go for nearly his normal minutes,” Oh said. “Based on these assumptions, we project Curry for 1.6 steals + blocks with plus-money value on a line Under his projection and at his average.”
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
Cade Cunningham (calf) is out again for the Pistons, which translates to another huge opportunity for Hardaway. The 33-year-old small forward had 12 points, two rebounds and four assists without Cunningham on Tuesday and he’s gone Over this total in four of his last five games without Cunningham. The model projects Hardaway Jr. at 17.1 PRA and sees strong value in getting this number early. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -105.
“He has gone Over this number in 73.5% (25-9) at home with an average of 15.3 and without Cunningham, this should be a better-than-average game statistically,” Oh proclaimed. “I don’t expect this line to last long but I’d take this up to 14.5 and certainly at 13.5.”
Scottie Barnes Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
The model projects Barnes to finish with 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists to finish Over this number with relative ease. Much of that is due to RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, and Ochai Agbaji all out, putting more responsibility on Barnes. He’s gone Over this number in three of his last four games and Barnes is averaging a 33.3 PRA this season while going Over 29.5 in 70.7% of his games (41-17) heading into a matchup against the Hornets. Some sportsbooks have moved this number to 30.5 already, but DraftKings Sportsbook is still offering it at 29.5.
“Charlotte’s defense provides a get-right spot for Barnes as the Hornets allow a fairly high 56% on twos and six of Charlotte’s last eight opponents have shot at least 39% on threes,” Oh told SportsLine. “Charlotte has gotten outrebounded by double digits in two of their last three and Toronto is crushing the boards (+20, +12) in their last two games.”
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday.
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