The Timberwolves, Warriors, Clippers and Grizzlies are all tied at 46-32 with four games left to determine seeds 5-8 in the NBA Play-In tournament and all four teams are in action on Tuesday. The top six seeds in each conference avoid the NBA Play-In Tournament, so how should Tuesday’s seeding implications affect how you view some of their top options when making NBA player props? Grizzlies Ja Morant has scored at least 30 points in back-to-back games and he’s +200 at FanDuel Sportsbook to score at least 30 points against the Hornets (+15.), so could those odds hold value for Tuesday NBA props?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Stephen Curry Over 3.5 rebounds (-150)
Curry hasn’t had more than three rebounds in any of his last three games, but he’s still averaging 4.3 assists per game, which is also what the model projects him for on Tuesday. The Warriors play the Suns in a critical game for the Warriors for seeding and for Phoenix to have any hopes of making the postseason. Curry has gone Over this number in two of three games against the Suns this season and the Warriors are 8.5-point road favorites, which plays to Curry’s advantage based on his season trends.
“The Warriors are also heavy favorites so there’s probably a concern that Curry won’t play his usual minutes,” Oh said. “But the Over is 16-6 when the Warriors are favored by at least -7 with a 4.5 rebound average. His road average is also way higher at 4.8 vs. just 3.8 at home and the Over is 62% on the road (56% at home).” Curry’s Over is -150 on BetMGM, while other sportsbooks have juiced the price to as high as -172.
Seth Curry Over 8.5 points (-115)
Steph isn’t the only Curry the model projects value for on Tuesday. Seth, the younger of the Curry brothers, is projected for 11.2 points by the model for Tuesday as he’s averaging 11.7 points over his last three contests. Curry has at least nine points in each of those three games while averaging 23.7 minutes per game. He only played 18 minutes against the Bulls on Sunday, yet, the Hornets guard still covered this Over. Given Charlotte’s injury situation, the model likes his chances at increased playing time and opportunities to score from deep on Tuesday.
“Curry may have to play 30+ minutes,” Oh said. “Memphis’ defense allows +2% higher 3-point shooting on the road than they do at home and except for Detroit on April 5, their other opponents in Memphis road games have shot sky high from 3-point range (42, 42, 40, 50, 39, 49%).” BetMGM is offering the best price at -115 odds.
Jordan Poole Over 0.5 steals (-105)
The model gives Poole a 65% chance of recording a steal, which provides solid value at a -110 price, which implies a 52.4% chance. The Wizards guard has played just 24.4 minutes per game over his last 10 contests compared to 29.6 minutes per game overall this season and he’s gone without a steal in back-to-back games, which has altered the odds entering Tuesday’s matchup against the Pacers to provide value to the model. Both the Pacers and Wizards play at a top-eight pace in the league, so there should be additional possessions and opportunities for Poole to poke away just one steal to cover this number.
“I’m going to go with his overall 21-13, 61.8% Over rate on the road and 5-0 (1.8 average) in his last five vs. Indiana,” Oh said. “The Over is also 5-1 when the Wizards are +16.5 or more underdogs and they are massive +18.5 dogs right now.” Bet365 is offering this at -105 odds.
Derrick White Over 1.5 steals + blocks (-135)
The Celtics guard has gone Over this number in two of his last four games and is averaging 1.9 steals + blocks per game this season. The model projects him at just Under one steal and one block each in this game, and finds the best value in playing the combination together rather than one alone.
“We are getting buy low value because he only has one steal and zero blocks his last two games, but I only see that as a classic ‘he’s due’ situation,” Oh said. “Before his last two games, he was on a nice 13-5 Over run. The Over is 5-3 in his last eight games vs the Knicks and 6-0 in close games where the spread is 3 points or less this season.” He is listed at -135 odds on Bet365.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 assists (+100)
The majority of other major betting apps have dropped Randle’s Over 4.5 assists to minus-money odds, so this is one to act quickly on from DraftKings Sportsbook before they may join the other books. Randle has gone over this number in three of his last five games and he had exactly four assists in the two games he didn’t go Over. The chance to get this number at even-money odds is strong value for the model, which is projecting Randle at 4.9 assists on Tuesday for the Timberwolves on the road against the Bucks. Randle is also averaging 4.7 assists per game this season.
“We have some buy low value because he’s come Under his last two games, but he had four exactly in those games and was 9-5 Over this line prior to the last two,” Oh said.
His road Over is significantly lower at 35.3% compared to his home Over of 52%. However, Milwaukee games tend to be faster paced and higher scoring when played at home, with an average total of 231 compared to 224 on the road.
If you’re looking for more NBA picks for tonight, you’ve already checked out the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, you can access NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.