UFC Vegas 106 is set to take place this weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025) at the UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This marks the first time in over five weeks that UFC returns to the APEX. The ESPN+ will stream the main event featuring Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales, with Morales aiming to move closer to the Welterweight champion, Jack Della Maddalena.
The co-main event will be Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato. Bellato, coming off a draw with Jim Crute, will face Craig, who is coming off a fight with Bo Nickal.
Other matchups on the main card include Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos, Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus, and Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa.
The preliminary undercard will feature Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo, Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises, and Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro.
Let’s take a look at the money lines for the “Burns vs. Morales” fight and the other bouts on the card…
UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Money Line Odds
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Gilbert Burns (+500) vs. Michael Morales (-850)
Burns is now considered a gatekeeper in his career and faces an uphill battle as a significant underdog against the undefeated Morales.
Burns has faced tough competition in his recent fights, including losses to Sean Brady, Belal Muhammad, and a finish by new champion Jack Della Maddalena. His wins since then have come against Stephen Thompson, Neil Magny, and Jorge Masvidal.
Morales, on the other hand, has shown promise with wins over Neil Magny and Jake Matthews. This fight poses a significant challenge for the young fighter.
The odds may suggest a lopsided matchup, but there is a chance Morales could stumble in his first main event. Burns’ experience and toughness could play a factor in the fight.
While Morales has impressive striking stats, Burns has shown resilience on his feet. The matchup could be closer than expected.
The odds reflect respect for Burns’ durability with the round total set at 3.5. It’s a tough call between the over and under given the circumstances.
DraftKings offers enticing betting options for this fight, including Morales’ moneyline and method of victory. A more conservative bet would be Morales to win and Over 2.5 rounds.
I believe Morales is excellent, but Burns remains formidable. I’m not expecting an exciting fight, but my best bet is to go with Sodiq Yussuf on the moneyline (+105). Dustin Stoltzfus is facing Nursulton Ruziboev, and my best bet is to go with over 1.5 rounds (-110). Julian Erosa is up against Melquizael Costa, and I think Erosa is a live dog in this fight. The round total for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, and I believe their grappling might lead to a decision. Costa’s strong defense makes it unlikely for Erosa to replicate his success against Elkins. Therefore, the best bet is to go for over 2.5 rounds (+120).
del Valle secured a victory on the Contender Series to improve his professional record to 8-0. Most of his fights have taken place in Fury FC.
Matthews, a fellow Contender Series graduate, had a 1-1 record on the show before moving to the UFC. In his UFC bouts, he has been defeated by Dennis Buzukja and Jose Delgado.
Matthews seems to be facing tough opponents in the UFC and has shown vulnerability in his fights. He has absorbed a high rate of significant strikes per minute. del Valle has a good chance of causing damage and potentially finishing Matthews before the fight goes the distance.
Top pick: Under 2.5 rounds (+105)
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Luana Santos (-175) vs. Tainara Lisboa (+145)
Santos had her three-fight win streak at the start of her UFC career halted in Australia last August when she suffered a unanimous decision loss to Casey O’Neill. Prior to that, she had victories over Mariya Agapova and Juliana Miller.
Tainara Lisboa has begun her UFC career with a 2-0 record, defeating Ravena Oliveira and Jessica-Rose Clark (by submission). However, her last fight took place in October 2023.
At 34, Lisboa is older than the 25-year-old Santos.
Lisboa relies on her grappling skills, but Santos has shown strong takedown defense. Santos is expected to control the fight on the feet and secure a decision victory over the older and less active Lisboa.
Top pick: Luana Santos moneyline (-175)
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