Heading into the season, many believed the National League Central would be the most competitive division, top to bottom, in baseball. And while the Brewers have led most of the season and pushed the lead up to 7.5 games at one point, this is easily the closest division when we loop in all five teams. The Cubs are in last place at 8.5 games out. That’s the same margin the Phillies have over the second-place Braves in the NL East.
Is it as simple as the Brewers just holding on here? Or should we be looking in another direction. Let’s do an odds breakdown.
Here is where things stand:
- Brewers, 55-42, -320
- Cardinals, 50-46, 4.5 games back, +430
- Pirates, 48-48, 6.5 GB, +1500
- Reds, 47-50, 8 GB, +1400
- Cubs, 47-51, 8.5 GB, +2400
Brewers -320
Did they leave the door open with a rough close to the first half? The Brewers lost seven of their last 10 and I’m sure the people who had them missing the playoffs are pining for another option.
The rotation could be a problem, but they are very adept at piecing it together and getting by, just as they have been for years. Some things won’t work (Dallas Keuchel), but others will (Tobias Myers). They seem to always manage to put together a vaunted bullpen and star closer Devin Williams is nearly back from an injury that has kept him out all season to this point.
Offensively, they get on base, run a lot and score runs. Getting on base and running doesn’t slump as much as power, so it seems like a good bet the Brewers will continue to be a quality offense.
I did not think the Brewers were going to be good. After several weeks in first, I figured they’d backslide eventually. They carried it through 87 games before having trouble in the last 10. They’ve been great in a lot bigger sample than they haven’t. If they were tied in the division or even trailing, I could see people picking against them, but with this cushion it’s tough to do so.
Cardinals +430
Here’s your case for picking St. Louis: Since May 11, the Cardinals have the best record in the National League at 35-22. That’s a full-season pace of 99 wins. If they keep playing like a 99-win team, they can run the Brewers down. They have six head-to-head matchups against Milwaukee remaining, too.
They are doing this with Paul Goldschmidt hitting .230/.291/.373 (93 OPS+) and Nolan Arenado slugging just .381. Willson Contreras missed a big chunk of time after having his arm broken by a swing.
Basically, they are 14th of 15 NL teams in runs scored and there’s hope for them to improve, even greatly improve.
Pirates +1500
I have touted the Pirates as a team that could make a Diamondbacks-like postseason run and they are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot right now. They closed the first half hot, winning six of their last seven games.
Unfortunately, the Pirates have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule (after the Rays, Guardians and Marlins) in all of baseball. Now, they just won two of three in Milwaukee and it’s possible to navigate a really hard schedule in baseball a bit more easily than, say, football or basketball, but it’s still a tough road.
The Jared Jones injury is concerning, but assuming he doesn’t hit heavy setbacks, having a three-headed monster of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jones leading that rotation is a big plus for the Pirates. They have talent at the back-end of the bullpen, too. Offensively, Bryan Reynolds is playing like a star again while Oneil Cruz is liable to get scorching hot at times, but they could use some more power in there.
Hopefully the front office seizes on the attention Skenes and company are garnering and gets them some help by the trade deadline.
Reds +1400
The Reds were expected contenders but have been injury-ravaged and inconsistent. They’ve taken two of three from the Phillies and swept both the Dodgers and Yankees. Yet they are still three games under .500. They even have a losing home record.
If they get right, there’s enough talent here to make a playoff run. They are within striking range at three games out of a wild-card berth, but the division is a tall order at eight games out and in fourth place.
The path to the unlikely Central title here lies in feasting on the rest of the division. The Reds face the Brewers seven times, the Cardinals six times and the Pirates seven times.
Cubs +2400
In the last two and a half months of the season, an 8.5-game deficit can be workable. We’ve seen it before, but it’s a big ask. Also, that comeback generally doesn’t include also leaping over three other teams. It’s a Herculean task.
What the Cubs have is a good rotation and position players who just feel like they should be collectively better. They have the weakest remaining schedule of everyone here and won eight of their last 11 going to the break, including an impressive sweep in Baltimore against the first-place Orioles.
There was the possibility of trading a few key players — though they don’t have a ton that would work — but sitting just 3.5 games back in the wild-card race could take that off the table.
I’m just not seeing a climb in the division at all, though. Similar to the Reds, they’d have to beat up on everyone head to head.
The Play
As the odds indicate here, the Brewers are overwhelmingly likely to win the division.
Based on the simulations, SportsLine predicts the event to occur in 91.8% of cases, while FanGraphs puts the likelihood at 70%. However, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome makes it difficult to confidently bet on it with the given odds. As a result, the safest option is to refrain from placing a bet. While personally leaning towards the Brewers winning, the level of certainty is nowhere near the percentages suggested by the simulations. There is a possibility of unexpected outcomes, such as the Cardinals or Pirates emerging victorious. While not recommending bets on the Reds or Cubs, it is acknowledged that differing opinions may exist. The situation remains unpredictable, so it is advisable to keep an eye on developments.