The story below is a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are teaming up this season to cover baseball topics.
As the season’s stretch run approaches, there are usually a few surprises in store.
On this day in 2023, FanGraphs projected the D-backs’ playoff odds at 17.4%, yet they ended up in the World Series. Similarly, in 2021, the Cardinals, who were below .500, had just a 1.4% chance before making a run to a wild-card spot. This proves that as long as there’s a chance, anything is possible.
Which team could make an unexpected surge into October in 2024? According to the latest FanGraphs postseason odds, 15 contenders have strong odds of nearly 40% or better, while seven long-shot contenders have odds ranging from 3% to 20%. To identify the team with potential to claim a playoff spot, seven writers from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com each present a case for one of them.
Teams are ranked by their postseason odds as of Friday’s games.
Postseason odds as of Friday: 15.1%
How they could do it: Peak at the right time
The Giants, despite not being above .500 since late May, have stayed in the NL wild-card mix. They have been playing their best baseball lately, with key players like Matt Chapman and Robbie Ray stepping up. With a favorable schedule ahead, facing teams like Arizona and San Diego, the Giants have a chance to secure a spot in the NL wild-card race.
— Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Postseason odds as of Friday: 14.5%
How they could do it: Key veterans turning back the clock
The Cardinals’ path to the postseason relies on their offense, particularly on veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado stepping up. They also need to boost their power hitting to support their strong pitching staff.
— Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)
Postseason odds as of Friday: 8.5%
How they could do it: Patch holes with capable reinforcements
The Rays, despite selling at the trade deadline, have a deep pool of talent waiting to step up. With key players returning from injury and promising prospects in the mix, the Rays have a chance to defy expectations and make a late push for a playoff spot.
— Andrew Simon (MLB.com)
Postseason odds as of Friday: 6.8%
How they could do it: Tap into some power
The Cubs have a solid rotation but need to improve their power hitting to support their pitching staff. Players like Dansby Swanson and Isaac Paredes need to step up to boost the team’s offensive production.
— Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru (MLB.com)
Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.9%
How they could do it: Lean on their rotation
The Pirates have a strong starting pitching rotation, which could be their key to making a late playoff push. With some improvements in their offense, the Pirates have the potential to compete for a wild-card spot.
— Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)
Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.8%
How they could do it: Get some key hitters going
The Rangers have the pitching talent to make a run but need their key hitters like Adolis García and Marcus Semien to step up offensively. With a strong pitching staff and improved hitting, the Rangers could contend for a playoff spot.
— Theo DeRosa (MLB.com)
Postseason odds as of Friday: 3.7%
How they could do it: Finally win some close games
Despite a positive run differential, the Reds have struggled in one-run games. If they can turn their luck around in close games and get key players performing consistently, the Reds have the talent to make a late playoff push.
— Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com)