If you’ve followed the NBA for even a modicum of time, you’ve surely heard any number of pundits and fans alike talking about a particular player taking “the leap.” It means different things for different players. For some, it’s a leap bad to serviceable, or from serviceable to good, or from good to great, or, finally, from a star to superstar.
It’s signals more than just natural improvement. It’s a leap. And the 10 players below feel poised to take it in the 2024-25 season.
Does this even need to be explained? Wembanyama is poised to be the league’s best defender and one of the 10-15 best players overall in his second season. If that isn’t a leap, what is?
Go look at the success he and the Spurs had with Tre Jones as his point guard. Nothing special. Just highly functional stuff. Getting Wemby the ball at the right spot at the right time. Do that, and he’s going to do his thing. Who did the Spurs sign this summer? Chris Paul. Even at nearly 40 years old, point guard play isn’t going to get much more functional than Paul.
For Wemby, Defensive Player of the Year and even All-NBA feel like near certainties. MVP votes are not out of the question. The Spurs are slow playing this and giving him room to explore his vast skill ranges, but his feel for the game is obvious. He knows how to play. He’s not doing stuff just to do it. His passing has gone to another level already, and this season he should start moving closer to understanding his particular shot spots and how best to reach them. He’ll probably be in for another massive leap in year three. But year two is going to be quite a show.
Already one of the best defenders in the league, Holmgren’s leap, if it happens, will come on the offensive end — where he can become a higher-volume 3-point shooter (his 4.3 attempts per game could justifiably jump to six or even seven) and someone who creates more for himself rather than existing almost entirely as a roller and spacer.
It remains to be seen how much OKC positions him to do the latter. Obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to control things and Jalen Williams carries a lot of creative weight, but he Thunder move. The ball pops. They cut. By virtue of the activity Holmgren will find himself in more and more leveraged situations, and attacking those with his handle and ability to get to his own shot could turn him into a 20 PPG guy in relatively short order.
A lot of people laughed at the Hornets for taking Miller with the second pick in 2023 over Scoot Henderson (I was one of them). If their respective rookie seasons are any indication of what’s to come, Charlotte will be having the last laugh as Miller was superb in his first NBA campaign at 17 PPG on 37% 3-point shooting. It wasn’t the most efficient shooting season, and that’s where Miller makes the leap in year two.
Miller is a natural midrange scorer, but he is also a capable high-flying finisher if he takes the step of playing through contact, and he can stretch some of those long twos back beyond the arc. Last season, Miller took just under seven 3s per game; this season he could, and probably should, be taking closer to 10 triples on a nightly basis. A slight shift in the shot diet and Miller is going to be an easy 20 PPG guy. He might hit that number this season on what feels like an inevitable progression toward being the best player on the team.
Shaedon Sharpe is probably the guy in Portland who looks, on paper, more poised for a traditional leap into greater prominence as a 20 PPG scorer, but Henderson, by virtue of how underwhelming his rookie season was, has so much room for improvement that even a few steps forward is going to feel like a leap.
Henderson is a good bet to take more than a few steps. First, he shot 82% from the free-throw line, which suggests his shooting in general should be able to at least sustain, if not improve upon, the 35% clip that he registered from 3-point land after the All-Star break last season. Over his final seven games he put up over 19 points and nine assists on 42% 3-point shooting.
Small sample, yes, but Henderson’s raw ability is unquestionable and now that we’ve seen some basis of skill development, from leveled-up passing to pull-up jumpers and range shooting, Henderson feels ripe for potentially the biggest second-year leap of anyone on this list.
Johnson has already broken out, averaging 16 points, eight boards and almost four assists last season. Now comes the leap into, dare I say, fringe All-Star territory? He has that kind of ability, and he won’t be lacking for opportunity. The Hawks love him, and rightfully so. Reports have indicated he was their only untouchable player this summer.
Atlanta’s wing chart is saturated but Johnson is penciled in at the four. He’s going to become a pretty regular 20-point scorer, if not a nightly one. Paired with Trae Young, he has all the makings of what John Collins was becoming before his developing 3-point shot disappeared and his place in the Atlanta offense followed. He can jump out of the gym and shoot from deep. He can really pass, too. He’s the kind of long, athletic defender everyone covets. Johnson just needs to stay healthy.
If he continues on this trajectory, his stock is bound to skyrocket. Kuminga’s true potential often goes underappreciated, as he has yet to fully showcase his abilities for the Warriors. However, the team sees something special in him, evident by their decision to prioritize him over big-name trades. With an impressive average of 16 PPG last season, along with unmatched athleticism and ideal size for his position, Kuminga’s ceiling is incredibly high. He is a much better shooter than his previous 32% 3-point accuracy suggests; all he needs is the confidence and rhythm to excel. This season, he is expected to have a consistent role without interruptions to his playing time. As one of the few players offering an athletic advantage for the Warriors, Kuminga must elevate his game for the team to reach the playoffs. It’s likely he will achieve close to 20 PPG with improved efficiency and defensive impact that align with his physical abilities.
Podziemski, known for shooting over 38% from beyond the arc last season, is set to increase his 3-point attempts at the Warriors’ request. As a first-team All-Rookie player, he played a significant role in the team’s decision not to trade for Lauri Markkanen. With a potential rise from nine points per game to 15 or more, Podziemski will have a more prominent position this season, especially with Klay Thompson absent. He has already identified missed shooting opportunities from the previous season and is prepared to create more scoring chances for himself. Despite limited samples, Podziemski has shown impressive off-the-dribble shooting skills, making him a valuable asset on the court.
The Houston Rockets have several players poised for a leap in their performance, including Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Jalen Green, and Alperen Sengun. However, Smith stands out as the team’s most well-rounded player to watch. With notable improvements in shooting efficiency from his first to second year, Smith’s confidence and self-creation abilities have grown significantly. A potential increase from 13 to around 17 PPG is feasible for Smith, given his defensive contributions and overall impact on the court.
George, known for his scoring abilities, needs to enhance his efficiency and decision-making to secure his role as the Jazz’s future point guard. With the opportunity to take a significant leap this season, George’s talent suggests he will capitalize on the chance. A boost in shooting percentage and 3-point accuracy could see him reach 16-18 PPG, up from 13. Beyond statistics, George’s court presence and ability to create opportunities for his teammates set him apart as a valuable asset for the team. His sophomore campaign is expected to be impressive as he continues to develop his game.
Nembhard’s breakout performance began in the playoffs, where he showcased his shooting skills and defensive prowess. As he transitions to a more prominent role this season, Nembhard is likely to attract more attention with increased playing time and consistent scoring. Drawing comparisons to players like Goran Dragic and Immanuel Quickley, Nembhard has the potential to become a starting point guard in the future. text to make it more concise:
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