For the Minnesota Twins, Monday night was the collapse within the collapse — the inception collapse. Minnesota blew a three-run lead to the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field (CLE 4, MIN 3) and lost for the 18th time in their last 27 games. The Twins still sit in the third AL wild-card spot, though their lead is down to 1 1/2 games, the smallest since July 23.
“Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking,” Twins ace Pablo López said after allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings in Monday’s loss (via MLB.com). “Now it’s to the point where you’ve got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow.”
The surging Detroit Tigers — 23-10 in their last 33 games after Monday’s four-run comeback (DET 7, KC 6) — are two behind the Twins in the loss column, though Minnesota has the tiebreaker, so it’s really more like a three-game lead. The Seattle Mariners are only two back as well, but again, the Twins have the tiebreaker. Catching the team that doesn’t win the AL East, whoever it ends up being, for the top wild-card spot is unlikely at this point. For the Twins, the focus is on holding off the Tigers and Mariners.
According to FanGraphs, Minnesota’s postseason odds sit at a healthy 76.4%, though they were 95.4% as recently as Sept. 5, and this is the time of year when the needle can move a lot in a short period of time. The Twins have exhausted much of their cushion and are, essentially, playing postseason games now. These next two weeks will define their season.
What’s going wrong with the Twins? Well, everything, really, but here’s a closer look at the things that have put Minnesota in a position where they have to sweat the wild-card standings.
The bullpen is letting leads get away
Five times in these last 18 losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later, and on two other occasions the score was tied in the seventh inning or later. That includes Monday night, when Griffin Jax surrendered the game-winning two-run home run to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. A devastating swing for the Twins, this was:
“It’s pretty heartbreaking,” Jax said about blowing Monday’s game (via MLB.com).
The Twins went 70-53 to start the season and, in those 123 games, their bullpen pitched to a 3.84 ERA (12th in baseball) and was tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41). In the 27 games since, the bullpen has a 5.47 ERA (28th in baseball) and is dead last with minus-2.75 win probability added. It is not close either:
30. Minnesota Twins: minus-2.75 bullpen win probability since Aug. 18
29. Pittsburgh Pirates: minus-1.28
28. Toronto Blue Jays: minus-1.16
Minnesota’s bullpen has been, by far, the worst in baseball during this 27-game collapse. In a postseason race this late in the season, blown late-inning leads are an absolute killer. They hurt you in the standings and they’re demoralizing. I know baseball players are conditioned to have short memories, but geez, so many blown leads in such a short period of time is tough.
Monday was the Twins’ 17th game in the last 18 days and Jax suggested they’re worn down — “We’re kind of running on fumes as a staff,” he said (via The Athletic). I’m not sure what to say to that other than they better find a second wind and fast. It’s mid-September. Every pitching staff is on fumes. Cleveland’s relievers have made 554 appearances, 28 more than any other team, yet their bullpen managed to throw 6 1/3 scoreless innings Monday. Minnesota’s relief crew just needs to be better.
The rotation behind López has stunk
The Twins entered the season with questionable rotation depth after Sonny Gray (and Kenta Maeda) left as a free agent and they replaced him with no one in particular, but Simeon Woods Richardson really stepped up earlier this year, particularly once Chris Paddack and Joe Ryan went down with long-term injuries. He had a 3.27 ERA in his first 17 starts.
Lately though, it’s been a real slog, both for Woods Richardson and the rotation has a whole. Woods Richardson has pitched to a 5.85 ERA in his last nine starts and six times in those nine starts he failed to complete five innings. That includes each of his last four starts, which ties back into the bullpen being gassed. The rotation work has been inadequate of late:
|
IP per GS
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5.41 (6th in MLB)
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4.90 (21st in MLB)
|
|
ERA
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4.22 (18th)
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4.55 (22nd)
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|
WHIP
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1.16 (3rd)
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1.30 (22nd)
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K/BB
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4.23 (2nd)
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3.07 (12nd)
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WPA
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+1.89 (15th)
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-0.52 (24th)
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More baserunners, fewer innings, more blowouts. López has been excellent lately.
The team’s pitching staff has been carried by López, who boasts an impressive 1.11 ERA over the last 27 games, with four scoreless starts. In contrast, the rest of the rotation has struggled, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start. This has left the team relying heavily on López while the other starters perform at a lower level.
To address the pitching woes, the Minnesota Twins claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin will provide depth and flexibility to the pitching staff, with the potential to pitch multiple innings and serve as a swingman out of the bullpen. The addition of Irvin highlights the team’s need for reinforcements in the pitching department.
On the offensive side, the Twins have been struggling to score runs, failing to surpass three runs in six of their last ten games. The team’s batting average has dipped to .236 during this rough stretch, putting pressure on the hitters to step up. Despite some key players returning from injuries, such as Buxton and Correa, the lineup as a whole has underperformed, with several players failing to meet expectations.
While the Twins have shown resilience in clutch situations, hitting well with runners on base and in scoring position, they have struggled to generate offense with the bases empty. The team’s inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities has been a major factor in their recent struggles. With the return of key players and improved performances from underperforming hitters, the Twins aim to boost their offensive production and provide much-needed support for their pitching staff.
In conclusion, the Minnesota Twins are facing challenges on both the pitching and hitting fronts, but they remain in contention for a postseason spot. With a focus on improving performance across the board, the team looks to overcome their recent struggles and solidify their position in the playoff race. sentence using different words:
“The dog ran playfully through the park.”
“The playful dog sprinted happily in the park.”