There’s no such thing as an easy bet, but the Eastern Conference undeniably occupies the junior varsity slot in the 2024-25 over/under market. Everyone is trying to win in the West. In the East? Nope. We have four well-defined tiers within the conference that at least offer us a baseline:
Of course, the fact that we know this means that the market knows it as well. We probably aren’t going to see as many teams wildly mispriced here, for example, but we can at least use this knowledge to give ourselves a bit of a head start. We can guess, for example, that Eastern Conference playoff teams will have slightly better records than their Western Conference counterparts because they have more games against the lightweights at the bottom of the standings.
So let’s dive into these Eastern Conference over-unders using these tiers as a starting point. We’ll be using the lines at Caesars Sportsbook, and teams will be listed in order of their projection.
*Pythagorean Wins represent the number of games a team would be expected to win based on their point-differential
Boston Celtics
|
2023-24 Wins
|
64
|
|
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins
|
69
|
|
2023-24 Win total line
|
58.5
|
The pick: Under 58.5
This is immediately the under with the greatest chance of making me look bad. Boston won 64 games a year ago, but in truth the Celtics were far better. Their point-differential suggests that they played at the quality of a 69-win team, and remember, they had the No. 1 seed seweed up months before the playoffs began. They weren’t even going full-throttle all season.
But repeating that degree of success is just so unlikely. Only two teams have ever repeated 64-win seasons. One of them had Michael Jordan. The other had Stephen Curry. The Celtics posted the fourth-best net rating in NBA history last season, but only Jordan’s Bulls and Curry’s Warriors have ever had top-25 net ratings in consecutive seasons. Even reaching the 59 wins needed to hit this over in consecutive seasons is a rarity. Technically nobody has done it since Curry’s Warriors did so from 2015-17, but the Milwaukee Bucks hit the necessary winning percentage in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons before the latter was shut down due to COVID. That team had Giannis Antetokounmpo, who won MVP in both of those seasons. This is obviously a trend even within our small sample. Curry and Jordan were also multiple-time MVPs. The Celtics don’t have someone like that.
So many things need to go right for a team to win 59 games. It’s not just a matter of quality. Everyone needs to stay healthy. Everyone needs to shoot at or near career-best levels. Everyone needs to want to win that many regular-season games instead of simply coasting to the postseason. It takes a degree of luck. Boston is already starting this season without Kristaps Porzingis. That’s fairly significant when you remember that Al Horford is 38. There are valid front-court questions here, though Xavier Tillman is sorely underrated. The Celtics might still be the best team in the NBA. They are certainly the Eastern Conference favorite. But that’s not what we’re measuring here. As a regular-season team, I’m expecting a bit of regression.
New York Knicks
|
2023-24 Wins
|
50 |
|
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins
|
55 |
|
2023-24 Win total line
|
53.5 |
The pick: Over 53.5
Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks teams have gone over their projected total in three out of his four seasons in New York. For his New York tenure overall, they have won 28 games more than their preseason projections. Thibodeau’s Bulls teams went under in his last three seasons, but remember, those were the Derrick Rose injury years. Without Rose in those seasons, Chicago went 105-80, which would obviously qualify as exceeding expectations. You can certainly argue that Thibodeau’s tactics wear on teams when the postseason arrives. There is no denying how effective his approach is in the regular season. He plays his best players more than any other coach in basketball. Nobody out-efforts his teams. They don’t leave wins on the table.
The question here is primarily depth-related. In theory, there is redundancy here. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby do similar things. If one goes down, the other mitigates the loss. Precious Achiuwa is obviously inferior to Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’s a big man that can shoot well enough to keep defenses honest, so losing Towns for a meaningful period wouldn’t necessarily force the Knicks to drastically change their playing style. But after the Towns and Bridges trades, this roster is fairly thin. Until Mitchell Robinson returns mid-season, they have six reliable rotation players: Towns, Bridges, Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Deuce McBride. Lose two of them and suddenly things start to look iffy. But so long as they’re healthy, the Knicks are going to be a regular-season monster. Thibodeau’s style meshed with a roster that will likely compete for the No. 1 offensive ranking equals a juggernaut.
Philadelphia 76ers
|
2023-24 Wins
|
47 |
|
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins
|
47 |
|
2023-24 Win total line
|
53.5 |
The pick: Over 53.5
You’re afraid to take a Joel Embiid over. I get it. Consider the following: Embiid’s teams have won 62.5% of their regular-season games since the beginning of the 2017-18 season. That includes the games he’s missed, and it translates to over 51 wins in an 82-game season. If typical Embiid health patterns hold, you’re going to wind up in this range. So it comes down to this: do you think this team has enough of an advantage over a typical Embiid roster to bridge that three-win gap?
I believe the answer to that question is yes. The raw roster quality speaks for itself. This is a true three-star outfit, and Embiid fits flawlessly with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. The three are simultaneously distinct and compatible. None of them do the same things.
All three players, Maxey, Embiid, and the rest of the roster, do not interfere with each other’s abilities on the court. Maxey and Embiid excel in their pick-and-roll plays, causing a nightmare for defenses due to their speed contrast. Maxey’s youth and shot-creation skills make him a stable presence for Philadelphia when Embiid is not playing. The roster also boasts redundancy and upside, especially with wings like Kelly Oubre, Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, and Guerschon Yabusele. Andre Drummond serves as a reliable backup for Embiid, with his experience as a starter. The team’s potential for success is high, with the best version capable of winning 60 games and a median version hovering in the low 50s. The K.J. Martin contract is likely to be traded for a mid-season upgrade, making this team a strong candidate for various bets, except for the best overall record. The issue lies in Orlando’s heavy reliance on Jonathan Isaac for their top-three defense, despite his history of being injury-prone. While the Magic saw significant defensive improvement with Isaac on the floor last season, his track record of missed games raises concerns. The team’s offense also presents challenges, with a lack of a reliable ball-handler and dependence on young forwards for shot creation. Until they address these issues, particularly at point guard, it’s risky to bet on an Orlando over.
As for the Indiana Pacers, the over 47.5 line seems reasonable given their young roster and potential for growth. Despite injuries to key players like Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam last season, the Pacers were close to hitting this mark. With a strong offensive performance and the potential for full seasons from their key players, they have a good chance of surpassing this total.
On the other hand, the Miami Heat may struggle to reach the under 45.5 line due to concerns about Jimmy Butler’s health and the team’s inconsistent offensive performance. While they have promising young players and some improvements on offense, their historical reliance on Butler for success raises doubts about their ability to consistently perform without him.
Lastly, the Atlanta Hawks may face challenges in surpassing the under 36.5 line after losing a key shot creator in the Dejounte Murray trade. With questions surrounding their shooting and defensive abilities, particularly with a young roster, the Hawks may struggle to maintain their offensive success from last season. Unless they address their shooting deficiencies and defensive shortcomings, it’s unlikely they’ll exceed this total. The Atlanta Hawks were better a year ago when Trae Young was out, but Jamal Murray’s shot-creation made that possible. Without him, they will struggle to score when Young sits and will also struggle defensively.
The Toronto Raptors had a rough season last year, but they were tanking to preserve a protected pick that they ultimately lost. Now that they are free from that obligation, they have the potential to be decent, especially with the young talent they have on their roster.
The Charlotte Hornets have some promising young talent, including LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams. With a new ownership group in place, organizational improvements are expected, and they should be able to surpass the 29.5-win mark.
The Chicago Bulls lost key players like DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso, which will have a significant impact on their defense. Without Caruso, their defense may struggle, and they will rely heavily on Zach LaVine.
The Detroit Pistons may struggle to score due to their lack of shooting ability. With several young players who are not strong shooters, they will need to improve in that area to have success this season. Detroit is in the process of building around certain players who are essential to the team and need to receive significant playing time. Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been brought in to contribute, but they both have a preference for creating their own shots rather than providing spacing for their teammates. This dynamic doesn’t necessarily support the development of the young ball-handlers on the team who need more low-maintenance spacers. The Pistons’ defense has the potential to improve with the presence of Thompson, a standout player on that end of the court. However, the team still has a long way to go as they ranked 25th in defense last season and are one of the youngest squads in the NBA. The current mix of talent on the roster is intriguing, with several promising prospects, but they don’t seem to mesh well together. The addition of veterans to complement the young core also doesn’t seem to align with the team’s overall direction. It may take some major roster changes in the coming years for the Pistons to find more cohesion and success.
As for the Washington Wizards, they are facing a challenging season ahead. Tyus Jones is expected to shine as he takes on the starting point guard role in a strong Phoenix offense, while the Wizards will struggle in his absence. The team is incorporating a lottery pick in Bub Carrington and has confirmed Jordan Poole as a starter for the upcoming season. The departure of key players like Deni Avdija and the uncertainty surrounding Malcolm Brogdon’s health further complicates the Wizards’ situation. The addition of Alex Sarr, who had a rough performance in a Summer League game, highlights the team’s reliance on young and inexperienced players. Saddiq Bey’s absence due to injury adds to the challenges the Wizards will face this season. Overall, the Wizards are in a rebuilding phase with little to be optimistic about, aside from some promising performances from Bilal Coulibaly last season.
On the other hand, the Brooklyn Nets have made a deliberate choice to focus on the future by trading for future draft picks and signaling their willingness to embrace a losing season. With primary shot creators like Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons, who each have their own unique strengths and weaknesses, the Nets are prioritizing player development over immediate success. The team’s defensive efforts will be led by players like Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Cam Johnson, but the overall emphasis is on building for the long term rather than competing for wins in the short term. The Nets’ strategic approach to roster construction suggests that they are willing to endure a period of struggle in order to secure a brighter future through high draft picks and player development. sentence: Please submit your assignment before the deadline.
Rewritten: Make sure to turn in your assignment by the due date.