Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman are the biggest names of the MLB offseason, but perhaps the most interesting is Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese flamethrower who might or might not become available to teams stateside this winter.
For years, the Chiba Lotte Marines star has loomed as the next great import from Nippon Professional Baseball, following in the footsteps of Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Ichiro Suzuki. The date of his arrival, however, is unknown.
Why? Let’s get into that.
Who is Roki Sasaki?
Sasaki is perhaps the most exciting pitching prospect to ever come out of Japan. A native of Rikuzentakata in the Iwate prefecture, he was on MLB teams’ radars when he was in high school before he opted to declare for the NPB draft, in which the Marines won his draft rights in 2019.
Sasaki has since dominated the league, posting a career 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings across four seasons. He doesn’t have the greatest numbers ever by an NPB pitcher (that title probably belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, now of the Los Angeles Dodgers), but Sasaki might be even more intriguing because of an arsenal that Japanese hitters are surely sick of facing.
When did people start learning about Sasaki?
Sasaki was great for a while in Japan, but he started drawing international eyeballs in April 2022, when he threw a 19-strikeout perfect game. It’s not hyperbole to call it the most impressive pitching performance ever.
Sasaki followed that by throwing eight perfect innings and 14 strikeouts in his next start before he was taken out due to workload concerns. That’s when a lot of MLB fans started trying to figure out when he could move stateside.
More attention came during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, in which Sasaki was a member of Team Japan’s vaunted pitching staff that led the country to victory. Sasaki started the semifinal game against Mexico, giving up five hits and three runs and recording three strikeouts against a lineup of mostly MLB hitters.
What can we expect from Sasaki in MLB?
Sasaki is an exciting prospect, but he’s not a perfect prospect.
We can compare Sasaki and Yamamoto. While Sasaki has a bigger frame than Yamamoto, can throw harder than Yamamoto, and has a splitter that outshines Yamamoto’s, Yamamoto came over as the more complete pitcher thanks to his command and more well-rounded arsenal. Sasaki might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect, but he still needs to show that he can put it all together against MLB’s hitters.
Odds are he will, but he might need a year or two in MLB before he really dominates. Any MLB team would gladly give him that runway, but at the same time, it might be best for him to stay in Japan a bit longer.
More concerning were Sasaki’s velocity dip and injury issues this year, as he saw his fastball lose a tick and missed a few starts due to arm discomfort. These are significant red flags, considering that starting pitchers who throw 100 rarely make it more than a few years in MLB before needing major surgery.
What kind of stuff are we talking about?
Let’s start by noting that Sasaki has tied Ohtani as the hardest-throwing pitcher in the history of Japan, with his fastest pitch coming in at 102.5 mph. Sasaki showed up to the WBC and threw 26 of 29 pitches faster than 100 mph. No starting pitcher in MLB throws that hard that consistently.
We can easily grade that fastball an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. The other 80 in Sasaki’s arsenal would be his splitter, which is usually his strikeout pitch and might be the best pitch of its type in the world.
After that, well, Sasaki has found most of his success as a two-pitch pitcher. That’s hard to do as a starter, but he has repeatedly overwhelmed hitters with his fastball-splitter duo. That said, he worked on his slider this season with encouraging results, and any MLB team is going to want him to continue that process.
So he’s going to get a huge amount of money?
Nope, a few million dollars at most. Think “26th overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft” money.
Wait, what?
The key thing with Sasaki is that he is 23 years old. When Yamamoto came to MLB and got $325 million from the Dodgers, he was 25. Those two years are very important.
Because Sasaki is younger than 25, he is bound by the same international free agent rules that govern the young players in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and everywhere else that isn’t the U.S. If a team wants to sign him, they must do so using money out of their international bonus pools, which topped out at a little more than $7 million for the more favored teams this season.
After signing, Sasaki’s status will be basically the same as that of any other prospect. He could go to the minors (but almost certainly won’t), and his team will have six years of control, with arbitration coming after three years.
If Roki Sasaki joins MLB this offseason, he will be eligible for free agency after his age-28 season in 2030. The reason for him to come over now is the potential to build his baseball career by facing the best hitters in the world sooner. However, whether he will be posted is uncertain as it depends on his contract with the Marines. If posted, he will have a 45-day window to negotiate with MLB clubs. The favorites to sign him are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been preparing for his potential arrival. Other teams like the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs could also be contenders. Ultimately, the decision will be up to Sasaki and what he is looking for in his MLB career.
Sasaki: The Potential MLB Ace
Sasaki is a generational flame-throwing pitcher who would command a hefty price tag of around $300 million if he were an MLB free agent today. However, if he is posted by his NPB team, he could be the biggest steal in baseball, offering six years of potential ace-level performance for the salary of a fifth starter.
The timing of his arrival in the MLB remains uncertain, but whenever it happens, it will undoubtedly be a major offseason headline. The Dodgers are likely to be in the mix for his services, whether it’s in 2024 or 2026.