In the coming month or two, Juan Soto is expected to sign a lucrative contract that could potentially make him one of the wealthiest players in baseball. However, it remains uncertain whether his new deal will break any existing records.
Currently, Shohei Ohtani holds the title for the largest contract in sports history, signing a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. This deal not only shattered the previous record held by Mike Trout but exceeded it by a significant margin. The difference between Ohtani’s contract and Trout’s $426 million deal could fit an entire Nolan Arenado contract.
Soto was anticipated to land a mega-deal once he hit free agency this offseason. However, Ohtani’s massive contract now casts a shadow over the negotiations. The question remains whether Soto will come close to Ohtani’s groundbreaking deal or if Ohtani’s contract will remain an outlier.
Here are some key factors to consider about Soto’s potential deal and why his case differs from Ohtani’s. While both players are exceptional hitters, their similarities end there.
Will: Age is a Crucial Factor
Despite both Soto and Ohtani making their MLB debuts in 2018, Soto, who is 26 years old, is over three years younger than Ohtani was at the time of his free agency. Ohtani rose to stardom in Japan before joining MLB at 23, whereas Soto quickly ascended through the Washington Nationals’ minor league system as a teenager.
The three-year age gap is significant as it means a potential bidder for Soto will get three more years of his prime performance if they secure his services.
Assuming Soto could command an average annual value of $45 million, similar to Aaron Judge’s $40 million deal, and extending it through his age-40 season could result in a 15-year, $675 million contract, surpassing Ohtani’s current deal.
Won’t: Comparison with Ohtani’s Deferred Contract
Ohtani’s $700 million contract is deceiving as he deferred $680 million of that amount until after the contract ends. This means the actual value of the deal is viewed as a 10-year, $460 million contract by MLB standards. Soto, represented by Scott Boras, is unlikely to entertain similar deferrals, potentially resulting in a more expensive deal for teams.
Will: Potential Bidding War in New York
Soto’s trade to the New York Yankees ahead of free agency positions him well for a potential bidding war between New York teams. Joining the Yankees gave him the opportunity to showcase his talent and impact on the team’s success. Other teams like the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and New York Mets are also in contention for Soto’s services, with the Mets being an intriguing option due to their wealthy owner, Steve Cohen.
A competitive bidding process between New York teams could significantly boost Soto’s contract value, especially given Cohen’s willingness to invest in a winning team.
Won’t: Ohtani’s International Fame
Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers was influenced by his status as an international icon, particularly in Japan. His fame and marketability significantly contributed to the value he brought to the team through sponsorships and advertisements. In contrast, Soto lacks the same level of international recognition and revenue potential.
Will: Soto’s Health and Performance
Soto has demonstrated consistent health and performance since his MLB debut in 2019, minimizing concerns about potential injuries. His plate discipline, a key strength, is expected to age well, further adding to his value as a player.
On the other hand, Ohtani’s value extends beyond his baseball skills, making him a valuable asset both on and off the field.
The impending contract negotiation with Soto will be closely watched, with the potential to set a new benchmark in MLB contracts. While Ohtani’s deal currently stands as the pinnacle, Soto’s unique circumstances could lead to a groundbreaking contract this offseason.