Over the weekend, top teams like Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Juventus all faced setbacks, and the Premier League title contenders also stumbled.
Arsenal settled for a goalless draw against Everton, while Liverpool’s thrilling match against Fulham ended in a draw that felt more like a point gained. Manchester City was close to regaining their title race footing before Manchester United’s victory in the derby.
Chelsea, not keen on being part of the title conversation, managed to secure all three points this weekend, despite a shaky performance against Brentford.
The recent fixtures have had a significant impact on Opta‘s predictions, backed by statistics.
The landscape of the Premier League title race has shifted significantly, with Chelsea surpassing Manchester City in the predictive standings.
Chelsea now has a 5.5% chance of clinching the title. Nicolas Jackson, who scored the decisive goal in Sunday’s match, joked about not paying attention to the table, but Chelsea’s progress could change that mentality if they continue narrowing the gap with Liverpool.
While Chelsea is still most likely to finish third (35.5%), there’s a 5.3% chance of them missing out on the top four. Arsenal is Liverpool’s closest competitor, with a 10.6% chance of finishing above the Reds in Opta’s simulations.
Arsenal’s reliance on set-pieces in their attacking play was evident in their draw with Everton, raising concerns as they struggle to score from open play.
Liverpool continues to find the net, even with ten men. Despite falling behind twice against Fulham, they managed to salvage a point and strengthen their position in the title race.
Liverpool is in a strong position with an 82.0% chance of winning the title, holding a two-point lead over Chelsea and a game in hand against Everton.
Manchester City faces a tough road ahead with only a 1.9% chance of reclaiming the top spot. Their recent poor form has put them far behind in the title race.
Despite their struggles, Pep Guardiola’s job at City is safe, but their title hopes are fading.
|
Rank |
Club |
Probability of winning the Premier League title |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
82.0% |
|
2. |
Arsenal |
10.6% |
|
3. |
Chelsea |
5.5% |
|
4. |
Man City |
1.9% |