Last week at Citi Field, the New York Mets introduced Juan Soto, their new franchise player and the proud owner of a record 15-year contract worth $765 million. Soto, who turned only 26 in October, slashed .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 home runs and a career-high 7.9 WAR with the Yankees in 2024. He traded the Bronx for Queens, and was of course asked about that decision at his introductory press conference.
“I don’t think it was the Mets over the Yankees. I think it was five teams that were right there on the table. I don’t think it had anything to do with the Mets over the Yankees,” Soto said. “… The Mets are a great organization and what they’ve done in the past couple of years — showing the ability to keep winning, to keep growing a team, to try to grow a dynasty — it was one of the most important things to me. What I was seeing from the other side was unbelievable. The past and the future this team has, it went a lot into my decision.”
Building a dynasty is a lofty and perhaps unrealistic goal, but what else is the star player supposed to say at his introductory press conference? The expectation was Soto would take the biggest offer, and sure enough he took the contract that offered the most money and also the perks with the most monetary value. Players can’t say it was the money at the press conference though. Introductory press conferences are a time for pandering and Soto pandered well.
That all said, Soto leaving the Yankees for the Mets gives us a chance to examine the two franchises and figure out which has a better chance to win championships (plural) moving forward. Soto is signed through 2039 (!) and we’re not going to look that far into the future. We can’t accurately predict what’s going to happen 15 months into the future in this game, never mind 15 years. We’ll stick to the short-term (let’s call it next 3-5 years) because, ultimately, that is most relevant.
The Yankees won the AL East with a 94-68 record and a plus-47 run differential in 2024, and lost the World Series. The Mets finished third in the NL East at 89-73 with a plus-71 run differential and lost the NLCS. Five games separated the two teams in the standings, and that was with Soto on the Yankees. You cannot simply take Soto’s 7.9 WAR and slide them from the Yankees to the Mets, and say that’s what each team will be in 2025, of course. This sport is much more complicated than that.
Here now is a head-to-head comparison between the Mets and Yankees using four factors that will decide their World Series fates over the next few years.
Current roster
Short-term contention begins with the guys currently on the roster, and seeing as how spring training is still two months away, this is an incomplete assessment. The Yankees will add a bat between now and Opening Day, probably two, and the Mets will bring in another starting pitcher as well as re-sign or replace Pete Alonso. Here, as a snapshot in time, are FanGraphs’ 2025 projections for the two rosters as they currently sit:
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Batting
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29.3 WAR (5th in MLB)
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30.4 WAR (2nd in MLB)
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Pitching
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17.3 WAR (6th)
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14.4 WAR (19th)
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Total
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46.6 WAR (3rd)
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44.8 WAR (5th)
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The completely objective projection system sees the Yankees and Mets as two of the best teams in the game, and as essentially neck-and-neck with their current rosters. You are free to quibble with the individual projections (I’m just the messenger) but that’s what they say. At a quick glance, the two first-base projections (1.6 WAR for Yankees and 2.6 WAR for Mets) seem high.
I think that, on paper, it’s pretty clear the Yankees have the superior rotation, and that was true even before signing Max Fried. The Mets signed Frankie Montas and will give former Yankees closer Clay Holmes a chance to start, which are good value additions, but will only move the needle so much. My one quibble with Mets POBO David Stearns is his apparent unwillingness to spend big on starting pitching. He sticks to short-term deals, which is sensible, but it means you don’t get top starters. Good players win games, not good value. Owner Steve Cohen’s wealth would allow the Mets to go all-in on Corbin Burnes if they wanted.
Anyway, the Yankees have the rotation advantage and the two bullpens are similar. Each team has a lockdown closer (Edwin Díaz and new Yankees closer Devin Williams) and a hodgepodge of talented, albeit not big-name, relievers behind them. Stearns did a wonderful job rebuilding his bullpen on the fly in 2024, something he did annually with the Brewers. The Yankees have perennially built excellent bullpens, mostly on the cheap. It’s been a while since they traded for a big-name reliever like Williams (not since Zack Britton in 2018, really).
A side-by-side comparison of the two offenses, despite what FanGraphs’ projections say, looks one-sided in favor of the Mets.
Here are the regular position players for each team along with their ages for the 2025 season:
Yankees: Second base, right field, catcher, DH, left field
Mets: Alvarez, Soto, Vientos, Lindor
In terms of player performance and potential, Soto is seen as a strong contender compared to Judge due to their ages. The Mets have a younger core with players like Alvarez, Soto, and Vientos, while the Yankees have a solid 20-something core with Chisholm, Volpe, and Wells. The Mets currently have the advantage in terms of lineup and offensive depth.
In regards to farm systems, the Mets have the edge in prospects according to rankings. Both teams have had impactful contributions from their farm systems in the past season.
When it comes to spending, the Mets have shown a willingness to spend more aggressively than the Yankees, with Cohen’s personal wealth playing a significant role in their financial capabilities.
The competition factor also plays a role, with the Mets facing tougher opponents in the NL East compared to the Yankees in the American League.
Overall, the Mets currently have the advantage in terms of lineup, farm system, and spending, making them a strong contender for future success. The Red Sox are showing signs of improvement, but their ownership’s financial constraints are holding them back. On the other hand, the Astros are on a downward trend, the Mariners are struggling to capitalize on opportunities, the AL Central lacks a dominant team, and the Blue Jays often fall short of expectations despite their talented roster. Currently, the National League appears stronger than the American League, and this trend may continue for the next few years.
In terms of overall advantage, the Yankees seem to have the upper hand. The NL boasts some of the best teams in baseball, with three of them competing in the NL East. The Mets face tough competition in a deep division and league, which could make their path to the postseason more challenging than that of their crosstown rivals.
When considering short-term success, the current roster holds more weight than the farm system. In the long run, an owner’s willingness to invest in the team is more crucial than the level of competition within the division and league. The future of a team is unpredictable, with numerous variables at play.
It’s important to note that the offseason is not over, and both the Mets and Yankees will make changes to their rosters before Opening Day. Rosters will continue to evolve over the next few years, making it difficult to predict the outcome. While the Mets may seem better positioned to win a World Series soon, nothing is guaranteed, and the Yankees still have a fighting chance. Ultimately, New York baseball is thriving at the moment.