“In what can only be described as one of the toughest moments in Manchester United’s history, we must confront it with honesty,” stated Ruben Amorim following the Red Devils’ fourth consecutive defeat across all competitions.
The initial 30 minutes of Man Utd’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle to conclude a dismal 2024 were as sobering as anything witnessed at Old Trafford in the post-Fergie era.
A 64-year-old midfield pivot struggled as the Magpies’ impressive pivot effortlessly played around the sluggish veterans to create an early onslaught.
Stability only arrived once Kobbie Mainoo was introduced, but United’s fate was sealed once Amorim had selected his starting lineup.
The new head coach faced a monumental challenge upon his arrival, but few could have predicted a relegation battle in the 2024/25 season. Just two months into the job, Amorim has acknowledged that United are in a tough fight.
With Ipswich Town securing their first home victory of the season against Chelsea, United now have a slim seven-point cushion above the relegation zone. Despite their struggles, it seems unlikely that the Red Devils, under one of Europe’s most promising coaches, are headed for their first relegation since 1974.
This is Manchester United we’re talking about, after all.
Despite their poor form and dim prospects, Opta suggests that the likelihood of United being relegated to the Championship this season is minimal.
In the most recent 10,000 simulations carried out by their supercomputer, the Red Devils were relegated in only 15 instances (0.15%).
At the halfway point of the 2024/25 campaign, they have accumulated 22 points and are on track for 44 points at their current pace, although this projection decreases slightly when evaluating their performance under Amorim. With the Portuguese coach in charge, United are averaging 0.88 points per game, which would result in a 39-point finish for the season.
Both totals would mark United’s worst in Premier League history, with their lowest being 59 points in 2021/22 entering the 2024/25 season.
According to the official Premier League website, teams typically avoid relegation if they reach 36 points, but there have been six instances in a 38-game season where clubs with 39 or more points have been relegated to the second tier. The most recent occurrence was Blackpool in 2010/11, and in more recent seasons, teams have been relegated with much lower points totals. For example, last season, 18th-place Luton Town managed only 26 points.
While relegation seems improbable, the fact that the discussion is even happening midway through the season is a stark reflection of United’s deteriorating situation. Opta predicts that Amorim’s team will finish in 12th place, but a busy January transfer window could change the course of the season.
On 16 January, Southampton will visit Old Trafford with the aim of plunging United into complete despair.