The Houston Astros will look to bounce back from Friday’s shutout loss when they take on the Royals in Kansas City on Saturday. Houston managed just three hits in the first game of the series, with Royals starter Seth Lugo pitching eight strong innings before Lucas Erceg closed out the win. Framber Valdez will look to return the favor on Saturday, while Kansas City will counter with Michael Wacha. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
The Astros are -137 money line favorites (bet $137 to win $100), according to the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Royals are +116 (bet $100 to win $116) home underdogs. To see expert picks for every top MLB game, as well as which way the model is leaning after thousands of simulations, make sure to visit SportsLine.
Valdez (4.50 ERA) has gotten off to something of a rocky start this season. His strikeout rate is roughly in line with last season’s, but his walk rate has jumped nearly 2%. He gave up 2 runs over six innings of work in his last outing against the San Diego Padres. Wacha (4.15 ERA) has also been a bit unsteady, with his ERA nearly a run higher than it’s been over the last three seasons. In his last start, he gave up 2 runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers. Valdez and Wacha are both set at 4.5 strikeouts at DraftKings. Valdez’s Over is +105 and his Under is -135, while Wacha’s Over is +125 and his Under is -165.
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is favorite to homer at +450, followed by first baseman Christian Walker at +500. Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez is the Royal with the shortest odds at +550, while superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is +700.
Now, let’s take a closer look at the SportsLine model’s projections for Friday’s Astros-Royals matchup.
HOUSTON ASTROS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS | 4/26 | 7:10 p.m. ET
Money line
Pick: Astros -137
Houston wins in 57% of simulations
Run line
Pick: Royals +1.5 (-150)
Kansas City covers in 62% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-103)
The Over hits in 44.2% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Projected score: Astros 4.5, Royals 3.8
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