Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don reveals the key pitchers — with depressed ADPs — he wants to draft this season.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves
Schwellenbach was a second-round draft pick, but he’s pitched like a top prospect since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. He experienced a big jump in innings last year, but Schwellenbach was especially impressive over the second half, when he posted a 2.73 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 23.3 K-BB% that would’ve ranked fifth on the season. Schwellenbach offers six different pitches and owned a Chase% and BB% in the top five percentiles last season.
Schwellenbach will also benefit from pitching for the Braves for several reasons; Atlanta starters recorded 29% more wins than Detroit’s SPs last season despite both staffs finishing with similar ERAs (3.58 vs. 3.69). The Braves’ offense comically underperformed and/or got injured last season, so run support should be even greater.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2025 MLB season]
Schwellenbach is the SP29 in early “expert consensus ranks,” but he’s a top-15 starter on my board.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pfaadt’s 4.71 ERA last season ranked bottom-five among qualified starters, but it also came with a 3.65 SIERA that ranked No. 21 — ahead of new teammate, Corbin Burnes. Only one qualified starting pitcher owned a lower LOB% (64.5) than Pfaadt last year, and that should regress in 2025. Pfaadt started to pitch like an ace after the All-Star break, although his bloated 5.93 ERA in the second half certainly doesn’t show it (thanks to a .368 BABIP that led the league by a mile).
Pfaadt’s 22.1 K-BB% after the All-Star break would’ve ranked sixth-best among starters for the season. His 29.4% CSW ranked top 15 in the second half, one spot behind Paul Skenes. Chase Field remains a slightly favorable hitter’s park, but it’s decreased homers by 14% over the last three seasons (the fifth-most). The Diamondbacks may be due for some regression, but their offense scored 40+ more runs than the next best team last year.
Pfaadt is the SP54 in ECR, but he’s a top-40 SP on my board.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Lodolo was 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 20.5 K-BB% that ranked top-20 among starters before suffering a finger injury during his 12th start of the season last year. He posted a 7.38 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his final 50.0 innings after returning, when the injury still affected his ability to grip his curveball (even after the blister healed).
Lodolo hasn’t proven he can stay healthy, but he’s now another year removed from the leg injury, and none have involved his arm. Great American Ballpark is without question a hurdle, but his LOB% should regress, and this is a former top-10 pick with elite stuff (especially when he can properly grip the baseball). Lodolo’s career 4.52 ERA comes with a 3.53 SIERA. He matched Paul Skenes’ CSW last year while pitching injured.
Lodolo is the SP67 in ECR, but he has top-20 starter upside. Go get him.
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
Schmidt is ranked down as the SP65 despite posting a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP during his second year as a starter last season. Injuries limited his workload, but he finished the year healthy. Schmidt recorded a 26.3 K% that would’ve ranked top 15 had he qualified, and only five starters — Blake Snell, Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease — had a higher ZoneSwing% and at least a 44% ground ball rate. Schmidt’s CSW would’ve also ranked top 15 among qualified starters, just behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yankee Stadium boosts home runs (and walks), but it plays neutral overall. New York’s SPs led baseball in wins last season, recording 60% more than the White Sox’s starting staff. Schmidt’s ERA will likely rise this season, but he’s still someone to target at an incredible discount.
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
Arrighetti’s 4.53 ERA was accompanied by a 3.93 SIERA as a rookie last season. He suffered a few blowup outings, but Arrighetti also struck out 11 or more batters three times over a five-start stretch in August. He posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and the seventh-best CSW (just behind Tarik Skubal) after the All-Star break. Helped by elite extension, Arrighetti had four different pitches induce a 10%+ SwStr%.
Arrighetti is laughably the SP72 in early ECR, but he’s a top-50 starter on my board (with upside for more).
The sentence is missing, please provide the sentence you would like me to rewrite.