The Thursday NBA schedule has a six-game slate, highlighted by a pair of matchups between playoff contenders. Grizzlies vs. Heat will pit a Memphis team on a four-game losing streak against a Miami squad on a six-game winning streak. Despite that, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and co. are 5.5-point favorites, per the NBA odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the headline contest to target for NBA player props is Lakers vs. Warriors (+1.5, 230) at 10 p.m. ET. LeBron James and Stephen Curry will renew their rivalry, while Luka Doncic will play his first game against Golden State since joining L.A. Doncic has an over/under of 28.5 points on multiple betting apps, with player prop odds of -102 for the Over and -130 for the Under. Should you include him in Thursday NBA prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
LeBron James Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-150)
James has hit multiple 3-pointers in back-to-back games, and there’s something about facing the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history in Curry that brings out the best of James. He’s a career 39.6% shooter versus Golden State, which is his third-highest versus any team. Also, in his last six games versus the Warriors, the NBA’s all-time leading scorer has gone Over 1.5 made 3-pointers four times, averaging 2.3 makes over that stretch.
“Lebron is a different shooter at home than he is on the road,” Oh said as the Lakers will host on Thursday. “On the road he averages just 1.7 with 14-19, 42.4% over 1.5, but at home he’s at 2.6 per game and 23-8, 74.2% over.” Bet365 offers the best odds at -150 while other sportsbooks have this number at -162 or more.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 assists (-122)
Antetokounmpo is averaging 6.0 assists per game but will have increased playmaking opportunities with Damian Lillard (calf) still out. The two-time MVP has averaged 7.7 assists over his last three games and gets to face a 76ers defense which allows opponents to convert like no other. The Sixers allow the highest field goal percentage in the NBA, so Milwaukee’s bevy of shooters should push Antetokounmpo to at least seven assists.
“With Dame out and poor shooting from other players [Antetokounmpo’s] assists were actually down in the first 3 games in this recent stretch without Lillard (4, 3, and 5), but since then he’s picked it up with 7, 5 and 11 in his last game,” Oh stated, with the best odds of -122 being at FanDuel.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+135)
When playing 30-plus minutes in a game, Caldwell-Pope is averaging 2.0 steals plus blocks, and 30 minutes is what he’s seen, on average, recently. He’s averaging 30.5 minutes over his last 16 games and gets to face a Wizards team which is extremely giving when it comes to opponent steals. Washington allows 9.2 steals per game, which is the third-most in the NBA.
“His average of 1.8, a projection of nearly 1.9, and 30+ minutes in 3 of his last 4 games (24 in the 4th) make this a strong +$$$ on a line under his average and projection,” Oh said of Caldwell-Pope. Many betting sites have this as a plus-money prop but the best odds are at bet365.
Alec Burks Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
The model liked Burks’ Over due to the increase in playing time he’s set to receive with Miami on the second night of a back-to-back. Andrew Wiggins (hamstring), Nikola Jokic (hand) and Terry Rozier (stomach) are all out, and those three combine to average over 80 minutes per game, so Burks will be one of the Miami players asked to help fill that void. The Heat playing the Grizzlies should help Burks hit the Over as Memphis’ style of play is conducive to players filling up the box score as the Grizzlies play at the NBA’s fastest pace. Fanatics currently has the best odds at -115.
“The over 12.5 is 13-4 this season when he plays at least 20 minutes (8-3 when just 20 to 26 min) and 4-6 when he plays 16-19 min (0-18 when he plays 15 or less),” Oh revealed of Burks.
Deni Avdija Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+105)
Outside of Avdija, six other Trail Blazers average over 25 minutes per game, and four of them are listed as either questionable, doubtful or out for Thursday’s game versus Toronto. Avdija has been an ironman as of late, logging 37.1 minutes over his last 11 games, and he’s averaged 1.8 steals alone over his last six outings. He also has the perfect opponent to help him reach the Over, as the Raptors allow the second-most blocks per game and the fifth-most steals per game. Getting this play at +105 odds on bet365 Sportsbook is strong value, according to Oh.
“He’s been such an all-around PRA beast recently, and with Jerami Grant (doubtful) and Anfernee Simons (GTD) on the injury list, his lines in those stats are sky high,” Oh noted. “But he’s basically a lock to play 37+ minutes and we are projecting him for 1.7.”
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