The New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge started the season on fire, hitting six home runs in his first seven games. While he’s still hitting well, he hasn’t hit a homer in five consecutive games leading up to Friday’s MLB schedule. Despite this, sportsbooks are still offering short odds on Judge hitting a home run on Friday at FanDuel Sportsbook. San Francisco Giants’ pitcher Robbie Ray, who has allowed three home runs in his first two starts, will try to keep Judge from going deep in their upcoming matchup.
With every MLB team in action on Friday night, there are numerous opportunities to create MLB home run parlays. Whether you’re interested in MLB home run props or other betting options, SportsLine’s reliable computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks. The model has been on a hot streak, accurately predicting a home run prop in three out of four days this week, resulting in a +5.5u return overall since Monday. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have unveiled their projections for some of the most popular MLB HR props on Friday. By parlaying these three picks, you could secure odds of +22540 and potentially win $1,132.03 on a $5 bet at DraftKings.
Tyler Soderstrom HR (+500)
At 23 years old, Tyler Soderstrom has had a fantastic start to the season, batting .354 with six home runs and 10 RBIs in his first 13 games. Despite being tied with Judge and Kyle Schwarber for home runs so far, Soderstrom is available at a more affordable price than those star players. All six of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, and he has another matchup against a righty on Friday. Mets’ pitcher Griffin Canning has performed well, but he allowed the second-most home runs in the majors last year.
“We have Soderstrom at +330 to hit a HR in the model, and we like both the matchup against Canning for Soderstrom and the forecast having the wind blowing out,” said SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner. You can find the best price for a Soderstrom home run today at Bet365.
Kerry Carpenter HR (+460)
SportsLine’s model successfully predicted one Carpenter home run this week, foreseeing his homer against the Yankees on Tuesday. Detroit Tigers’ left fielder Kerry Carpenter currently leads the team with four home runs, all of which have come in his last six games. Carpenter will face Twins’ pitcher David Festa, who was called up from Triple-A St. Paul due to a Pablo Lopez hamstring injury. Festa has given up six runs in just 8.1 innings in his first two starts in the minors this season.
“Carpenter surprisingly has hit 2 of his 4 HRs this season against LHPs including when we bet on him Tuesday against the Yankees. This is a good sign, as it means he is less likely to be pinch hit for when facing a lefty reliever,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +340 for Carpenter to homer against the Twins and David Festa, who is making his first MLB start this season after getting shelled in Spring Training.”
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Friday, all from the model on a 34-19 roll.
James Wood HR (+700)
The Washington Nationals have won four of their last five games, with James Wood playing a significant role in their recent success. Wood has hit three home runs in his last three games, all against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wood had a standout performance on Tuesday with two home runs and five RBIs against the Dodgers. While he has struggled against right-handed pitchers this season, the model believes there is still value in betting on him hitting a home run at his current price.
“We are perhaps getting a good price on Wood this game because he has struggled against RHPs compared to LHPs, but last season Wood hit 8 of his 9 HRs against RHPs and had a .858 OPS against righties, so we expect some positive regression from his .580 OPS against RHPs to start the season,” Fetner said. The model sets the line around +420, creating value on these odds at Bet365.
You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 42-20 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 42-20 roll.
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