When it comes to building MLB home run picks, considering factors like weather and pitching matchups is crucial. A cooler day on the East Coast and in the Midwest means ballpark factors should also be taken into account. However, on the West Coast, the weather is looking pristine, with the Angels vs. Guardians game in Los Angeles set to be played on an 80-degree day with winds blowing out at Angel Stadium. Mike Trout, who has homered in three consecutive games, is listed at +360 to hit a home run on Sunday according to the latest MLB home run odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s computer model can help identify value for your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and has a strong track record, currently on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Saturday. These three picks can be parlayed for +15931 odds, potentially paying out $801.55 on a $5 bet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR (+675)
Recency bias can work in your favor with proven hitters like Guerrero. Although he hasn’t homered yet this season, Guerrero has consistently hit at least 26 home runs in each of his last four seasons. With a 63.0% hard-hit contact rate this season, the best of his career, Guerrero is showing signs of heating up.
“Guerrero is starting to show some positive signs with two straight multihit games. Although they were singles, we believe he is due for a home run soon. We set the line at around +500 for Vladdy to homer today,” said SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner. Bet MGM offers the best price at +675 for Guerrero to hit a home run.
Tyler O’Neill HR (+525)
O’Neill, who had a 30-homer season last year, is off to a strong start this season with a .379 average. Despite not hitting a home run since opening day, O’Neill’s matchup against Bubic presents a favorable opportunity. With a projected line of around +350 for O’Neill to go yard, he offers good value according to SportsLine.
Christopher Morel HR (+550)
Morel, who has yet to hit a home run this year, has displayed natural power with 47 home runs over the last two seasons. Despite a high groundball rate this season, his career numbers suggest more power potential. With a projected line of +498 for Morel to hit a home run on Sunday, he presents an intriguing option in his matchup against Kumar Rocker.
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