Following a subpar season in 2024, Pete Alonso decided to bet on himself during the offseason. His gamble has paid off so far, with Alonso leading the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while also hitting nine home runs and driving in 33 runs. The 30-year-old slugger is poised for a big payday next year and has been a consistent performer in MLB home run picks this season.
Alonso continued his hot streak by hitting another home run on Monday and recording multiple hits in three of his last four games. FanDuel Sportsbook has him listed at +330 in the MLB home run odds for Tuesday’s game in Arizona. But is there enough value in that bet to include him in your MLB HR picks? SportsLine’s computer model, which has been on a roll with top-rated MLB picks this season, can help you find the best value for your MLB home run picks.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has been successful in predicting home run props and is currently up 32.05 units in the last 28 days. SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have shared their projections for some of the most popular MLB HR prop bets for Tuesday. These three picks can also be combined for a parlay with +8108 odds, potentially resulting in a significant payout.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+350)
For our FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks and parlays, we’re backing Schwarber at +285. However, you can find this line for as high as +350, which is still a good value considering other sportsbooks have him priced at +240. Schwarber currently leads the National League with 11 home runs and has a favorable matchup against Rays starter Drew Rasmussen. Additionally, the weather conditions in the game are conducive to hitting home runs.
“If you can get Schwarber at +300 or higher against a right-handed pitcher, there is almost always value in betting on him to hit a home run,” said SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner. “We have set the line at +270 for Schwarber to hit a HR today.” Take advantage of the added value at DraftKings, where you can instantly receive $200 with a $5 bet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+425)
Guerrero had a slow start to the season in terms of power after signing a lucrative contract extension. However, he has found his stride recently, hitting three of his four home runs in the last nine games. Guerrero has had success against Angels lefty Tyler Anderson in the past, going 6-for-11 in his career against him.
“Tyler Anderson has given up six home runs despite only allowing 10 earned runs this season,” Fetner noted. “We have set the line at +350 for Guerrero to hit a HR today.” While FanDuel has this priced at +420 for our MLB HR parlay, DraftKings is offering the best odds for this bet.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+310)
Tatis, another standout player with a baseball lineage, is making a case for the NL MVP early in the season. He boasts impressive batting statistics and has a favorable matchup against Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who has struggled with giving up home runs in his recent starts.
“Tatis is hitting .371 with all 8 of his HRs against RHPs this season despite being a right-handed hitter,” Fetner explained. “Tatis is facing Clarke Schmidt who just had his start pushed back as he is dealing with an injury. According to baseball savant, Schmidt ranks in just the 6th percentile in fastball run value, while Tatis excels against fastballs. Tatis has a prime opportunity to hit a home run today.” The model sets the line at +280 for Tatis to go yard today, with FanDuel offering the best odds and a $200 bonus bet for a $5 wager.
More MLB picks for Tuesday
Check out the model’s MLB HR prop picks for various players on Tuesday and get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
If you’re looking for more MLB insights, consider today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who has a strong track record in baseball picks. Additionally, Jason La Canfora has been successful in MLB money line picks and already has a pick locked in for Tuesday’s games.
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