Roki Sasaki’s imminent MLB debut should be a cause for celebration as he is set to become one of the game’s most exciting players. The 23-year-old Japanese pitcher has the potential to be a frontline starter for the next six seasons, showcasing his exceptional talent at the highest level of the sport.
However, Sasaki’s entry into the international amateur free agency market could have far-reaching consequences for the 2025 international signing class. The international market, primarily made up of Latin American teenagers, operates on informal agreements and verbal promises, making it a fragile ecosystem that could be disrupted by Sasaki’s arrival.
While there is a possibility that Sasaki may sign before the 2024 international window closes, Commissioner Rob Manfred expects him to sign in the new year to benefit his Japanese team financially. This delay could complicate the process and potentially impact the existing agreements in place for the 2025 signing class.
Each year, MLB teams have a set budget for signing bonuses for international amateur players, with the majority being Latin American teenagers. Sasaki’s unexpected entry into the market challenges the existing system, as teams may need to renegotiate deals to accommodate his signing.
With Sasaki forgoing a significant amount of money to join MLB now, teams interested in him may need to adjust their budget by reworking or backing out of existing agreements. This could lead to a chaotic situation where teams scramble to secure players and renegotiate deals at the last minute.
Despite the potential disruption, some believe that Sasaki’s arrival may not have as drastic of an impact, as maintaining relationships with agents and trainers in Latin America is crucial. It is also possible that Sasaki prioritizes comfort over his final bonus amount, mitigating the need for extensive renegotiations.
Overall, the uncertainty surrounding Sasaki’s signing and its implications for the international amateur market highlights the challenges of a system that lumps players of different backgrounds and career stages together. As teams navigate the complexities of signing bonuses and player agreements, it is clear that Sasaki’s unique situation could have lasting effects on the international baseball landscape.
Sasaki is poised to make a strong case for Cy Young votes in the upcoming year. While most international amateurs are expected to spend 2025 in the Dominican Summer League, the lowest tier of professional affiliated baseball.
There is a notable exception in the case of Shohei Ohtani, who is on track to win his third MVP award. Ohtani’s transition from Japan to the MLB after the 2017 season did not have the same impact on Latin America as Sasaki’s signing, primarily due to the timing and nature of his arrival. However, Ohtani’s involvement in the international amateur system, which was not designed for players of his caliber, raised questions at the time.
Unfortunately, the issues within the international amateur system have not been resolved and have, in fact, worsened over time. Sources have described the current system as “a mess” and “broken.”
Many teams are engaging in negotiations with players as young as 12, despite the minimum signing age requirement of 16. Some of the upcoming international prospects had already verbally agreed to deals as early as spring 2021, coinciding with Sasaki’s debut in NPB. However, due to the existing international bonus regulations, Sasaki’s contract will impact the earnings of other players, despite it not being his fault.
It’s like comparing apples to motorcycles. Every team would prefer to have Sasaki, especially at such a reasonable cost, over any other player in the 2025 class, with no competition. Sasaki is the standout player in this scenario.
As one evaluator aptly stated: “I would choose to sign Sasaki over waiting six years to determine the potential of a player from the 2025 international class.”