It’s that time of the year again, when hope springs eternal and all of a baseball season’s possibilities seem within reach. It’s time, then, to harness that unchecked optimism and divine which players are bound for bigger and better things this season.
Below, I’ve selected one player for each MLB club who I believe could be in line for a “breakout” season. The quotations are necessary because let’s face it: there are levels to this. One player’s breakout effort might entail making the All-Star Game; another’s might be solidifying their place on the 26-player roster. By including a player in this piece, I’m stating only that I expect them to perform better than they have before.
Before we get to my picks, I have a few other housekeeping items to address.
First, I’ve altered the usual format. Whereas I used to list players in alphabetical order of their team name, this time I’m doing that within three tiers that align with my confidence level in each pick. Here’s a quick way to think of these tiers:
- High confidence: I would’ve picked these 10 players even if I didn’t have a mandate to select one individual per team.
- Medium confidence: I may have picked some of these players regardless, but I don’t feel as strongly about them.
- Low confidence: Hey, I had to pick someone from these teams.
Second, this is not your generic, predictable breakout players piece. You are not going to find players who are/were considered top prospects. (If you want that, check out my top-50 prospect list.) You are not going to find former Rookie of the Year Award recipients. You are not going to find players who have earned Most Valuable Player or Cy Young Award consideration. In my opinion, it would be a waste of your time and mine, as well as an insult to the spirit of the exercise, to include those kinds of players. So I don’t.
Instead, this piece is tailored for the seamhead sickos. If that means my hit rate is a little lower than it would be otherwise, so be it; if I wanted to be right more often, I’d have passed on baseball analysis for meteorology.
Besides, I do OK in that respect, averaging around 10 to 12 correct calls a year. In the past, those hits have included the likes of Spencer Strider, Steven Kwan, Ketel Marte, Kyle Bradish, and Drew Rasmussen. Last year alone, I hit on Jordan Westburg (an All-Star), Justin Martínez, Austin Wells (third-place Rookie of the Year finisher), Josh H. Smith (Silver Slugger winner), and Jeremiah Estrada.
Who will join those successes this year? Let’s find out.
High confidence
Rays: LHP Mason Montgomery
After years spent hoping Montgomery’s command would improve enough for him to function as a starter, the Rays accepted the inevitable last summer and shifted him to the bullpen. I think Montgomery has the talent to still make an impact. (Ditto for Hunter Bigge, an underappreciated part of the Isaac Paredes return.) He has two good offerings, a mid-90s fastball and a slider that plays up in relief. Montgomery’s fastball, the key to his game, thrives becase of both its innate life (he generates more than 18 inches of induced vertical break) and the deception gained from his mechanics; not only does he pitch off a tall front side with some serious back leg hinging, he releases from a high slot and with crossfire action. That layering of shape and form creates a challenging optical illusion, particularly when he elevates up in and above the zone. If you want examples of how well this profile can work, check out Alex Vesia of the Dodgers and Erik Sabrowski of the Guardians. Or you can just wait and see what Montgomery brings to the table this year.
Yankees: RHP Fernando Cruz
Cruz is a holdover from last year’s list. While it’s generally a bad sign when a player repeats, I’m justifying his selection here (over, say, infielder Oswaldo Cabrera) because I think the change of scenery will help him flourish. I have to imagine the Yankees are going to have Cruz ditch his ineffective cutter, the pitch responsible for nine of his 15 home runs allowed the last two seasons. Simultaneously, I expect Cruz to ramp up the usage of his splitter, in the spirit of how the Yankees had Tommy Kahnle spam his changeup. (Said splitter has held opponents to a .353 OPS over the last two years.) Should those tweaks occur, Cruz could emerge as a high-leverage weapon for Aaron Boone and the defending American League champs.
Twins: RHP Zebby Matthews
The last two springs have seen me pick Louie Varland as Minnesota’s breakout player. Both times, I reasoned that his sky-high home run rate had to regress to the mean. It felt like easy money. And, like most easy money schemes, it didn’t work out. Nevertheless, this year I’m applying the same logic to a different pitcher. I refuse to believe Matthews, armed with a great slider and a strikeout rate north of 10 per nine across four levels last year, will keep surrendering 2.63 home runs per nine innings. If he does, then it might be time a closer look at what’s going on in Minnesota.
Astros: INF Shay Whitcomb
Whitcomb took a marked step forward last season in his second run at Triple-A. He improved both his walk and strikeout rates (dicing the latter from 31.1% to 19.8%), and he did so while boosting his slugging. His gains appeared legitimate under the hood, with his quality of approach and contact measures both swinging in the right direction. On those grounds alone, I think Whitcomb would merit inclusion.
However, his command has held him back thus far. If he can improve in that area, Strowd has the potential to be a key contributor out of the Orioles bullpen. His impressive repertoire gives him a high ceiling, and if he can put it all together, he could be a breakout player in 2025.
Royals: OF Matt Mika
Mika has flown under the radar in the Royals system, but he has quietly put together some solid performances in the minors. He has a good approach at the plate, with a knack for making solid contact and getting on base. His power numbers may not jump off the page, but he has the potential to develop more pop as he continues to mature. With the Royals in a rebuilding phase, Mika could get a chance to prove himself at the big league level sooner rather than later. Keep an eye on him as a potential breakout candidate in 2025.
Unfortunately, his struggles with command have kept him from reaching the big leagues as he approaches his 28th birthday. Despite my doubts about his ability to improve in that area, I believe he has the talent to overcome his obstacles and find success, much like Justin Martínez did last year.
Braves: RHP Amos Willingham
The Braves have a tough roster to crack, but Willingham, with his impressive arsenal of pitches, could find a role in the bullpen. While he may not make the Opening Day roster, I see him contributing throughout the season and potentially securing a more permanent spot.
Padres: OF Tirso Ornelas
Ornelas has the potential to surprise if given the opportunity for regular playing time. Despite some areas for improvement, his skills against right-handed pitchers and solid bat-to-ball ability could make him a valuable asset. He has the chance to replicate the success of David Peralta from last season.
Royals: INF Nick Loftin
Loftin has shown promise with his hitting skills and defensive versatility, but he will need to prove himself soon to avoid being labeled as a Quad-A player. Despite a rough season last year, I believe he has more to offer and could bounce back with a strong performance.
Red Sox: RHP Luis Guerrero
Guerrero’s east-to-west pitching style and impressive secondary pitches could earn him more opportunities in the majors this season. While he may start in the minors, I expect him to make a significant impact in Boston at some point during the year.
Rangers: RHP Daniel Robert
As one of the older players in this group, Robert has a chance to solidify his role in the Rangers’ bullpen. His ability to miss bats and control contact make him a valuable asset, and I anticipate seeing more of him in the big leagues this season.
Cardinals: INF Thomas Saggese
Saggese has the potential for a better big-league career than his prospect status suggests, with a well-rounded profile that includes hitting, defense, and baserunning skills. Despite a disappointing season last year, I believe he has what it takes to succeed at the highest level.
Mariners: 1B Tyler Locklear
Locklear’s swing decisions and strength give him a chance to excel, despite some concerns about his tendency to strike out. With a crowded depth chart at first base, he may need to wait for an opportunity, but I expect him to get his chance to prove himself in the majors.
Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert
Reifert’s impressive strikeout rates and high-grade slider make him a candidate to make the Nationals’ roster, despite not yet playing in Triple-A. His talent could earn him a spot on the team and a chance to showcase his skills in the big leagues. If Reifert’s command issues remain manageable, he could be a breakout player this year, similar to Ryan Fernandez or Justin Slaten in previous seasons.
For the Guardians, outfielder Johnathan Rodríguez has impressive bat speed and power, especially against left-handed pitchers, but his overall game is lacking. Despite his weaknesses, there is potential for him to secure a platoon role if given the chance.
Marlins’ Eric Wagaman may not fit the typical breakout profile, but his opportunity in Miami’s lineup could lead to success due to his hitting abilities and the team’s lack of spending on upgrades.
Diamondbacks’ Tim Tawa has proven himself against minor-league pitching, but his defensive and contact issues may hold him back in the majors. Despite his flaws, his strength could earn him a shot in Arizona’s lineup.
Giants’ Wade Meckler struggled in his debut but has the potential to improve and earn a starting role, especially if the team makes moves at the deadline.
White Sox’s Bryan Ramos has youth on his side and could capitalize on his strengths to establish himself in the big leagues, despite some inconsistencies in his game.
Blue Jays’ Josh Kasevich’s contact skills are impressive, but his lack of power may limit his potential. If given the opportunity, he could surprise with his effectiveness.
Angels’ Ryan Zeferjahn has promising pitches but struggles with command. With few standout candidates, he has a chance to break out if he can improve his control.
Athletics’ Denzel Clarke possesses great power and speed, making him a high-risk, high-reward player who could excel in the right circumstances. In this world full of imperfections, one of the challenges faced by Clarke is his tendency to miss time due to injuries. Additionally, he has a high strikeout rate, having struck out 30% of the time last year, which limits his offensive potential. While Clarke has not yet played in Triple-A, the Athletics have a history of fast-tracking prospects when necessary, and they may do the same for him if he performs well, especially since he would still be playing in a Triple-A park.
As for the Reds, pitcher Connor Phillips had a tough year in 2024, struggling with his command and walking 60 batters in just over 78 innings at Triple-A. It may be time for the Reds to consider moving him to the bullpen, where his strong stuff could make him a valuable relief pitcher.
On the Phillies side, outfielder Cal Stevenson has faced challenges in his career, moving between the majors and minors over the past few seasons. While he excels in contact and on-base skills, as well as average speed, his lack of power and defensive prowess in center field may hinder his chances of securing a spot on the Phillies roster. However, if given the opportunity, Stevenson could prove himself at the big-league level with his ability to hit, get on base, and steal bases.
Ultimately, each player faces their own set of obstacles and opportunities in the world of professional baseball, but with determination and skill, they may be able to overcome them and succeed in their respective careers. following sentence: “I am excited to go on my vacation next week.”
My vacation next week has me feeling excited.