The 2024 World Series is complete and the 2024-25 offseason is already underway. More than 100 players became free agents the day after the World Series ended and soon teams will have to make decisions about contract options and qualifying offers. Here are the important offseason dates and deadlines you need to know.
The qualifying offer entitles teams to draft pick compensation in the event they lose a free agent to another team. The QO is a one-year deal set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, and this offseason it is worth $21.05 million, per ESPN. That is a record and up from $20.325 million last offseason, and $19.65 million the offseason before that.
Teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to tender their free agents the QO, and players who receive it then have until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 19 to accept or reject. Players who accept the QO remain with their team, and players who reject it hit free agency with draft-pick compensation attached. Simple, right? The process is, but the decisions aren’t always.
With that in mind, let’s run down this offseason’s QO candidates. Here are the draft-pick compensation rules to get us started.
Compensation rules
Once upon a time, teams that lost an eligible free agent received a compensation draft pick after the first round. It was nice and easy. The current rules are a bit more complicated. Here are compensation rules for teams that lose a qualified free agent:
| Received revenue sharing | Less than $50 million | Pick after competitive balance round B (before third round) |
| Received revenue sharing | $50 million or more | Pick after first round |
| Paid competitive balance tax | N/A | Pick after fourth round |
| All other teams | N/A | Pick after competitive balance round B (before third round) |
The Athletics, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, and Twins received revenue sharing this season, so the first two scenarios apply to them. The Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and Yankees will pay competitive balance tax (CBT), so they’re the third scenario. The Angels, Cardinals, Giants, Nationals, Padres, Red Sox, and White Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid CBT. They’re in the fourth bucket.
Now here are the penalties for signing a qualified free agent:
| Paid CBT | Second and fifth highest | $1 million |
| Received revenue sharing | Third highest | none |
| All other teams | Second highest | $500,000 |
The Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and Yankees will pay CBT and are in the first group. The Athletics, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, and Twins received revenue sharing and are in the second group. The Angels, Cardinals, Giants, Nationals, Padres, Red Sox, and White Sox are the third group. Got it? Good.
Seven players received the QO last offseason: Cody Bellinger and Aaron Nola signed new contracts to remain with their teams; Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Shohei Ohtani, and Blake Snell rejected the QO and signed with new teams, giving their former clubs compensation draft picks. Teams do not gain or lose draft picks for re-signing their own qualified free agent.
Not eligible to receive QO
Players are eligible for the QO as long as they spent the entire 2024 season with one team and did not receive the QO previously. That means a not-insignificant number of high-profile free agents are not eligible for the QO this offseason. Here are the notables:
The Tigers traded Flaherty to the Dodgers for catcher Thayron Liranzo, their No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline, and Trey Sweeney, their starting shortstop during their late-season surge and in October. That’s a much better haul than the one compensation draft pick Detroit would have received had they kept Flaherty all year and made him the QO. Anyway, these free agents are among those not eligible for the QO for one reason or another this offseason.
Locked to receive the QO this offseason are Willy Adames (Brewers), Pete Alonso (Mets), Alex Bregman (Astros), Corbin Burnes (Orioles), Max Fried (Braves), Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers), Sean Manaea (Mets), Anthony Santander (Orioles), and Juan Soto (Yankees). Hernández may be most likely to accept the QO due to his strange free agency last year, but is expected to decline.
Likely to receive the QO are Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, and Christian Walker, with Walker likely to decline due to age and looking for a big contract.
On the bubble for the QO are Nick Pivetta (Red Sox), Luis Severino (Mets), Michael Wacha (Royals), and Gleyber Torres (Yankees). The Yankees may not offer Torres the QO due to financial reasons.
Injured players who would have been top free agents, Shane Bieber (Guardians) and Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), are rehabbing from surgeries and it seems unlikely they will receive the QO. The financial situation of the club suggests that a clean break is highly likely, resulting in no Qualifying Offer for Bieber. Kim underwent labrum surgery on October 10 and is targeting an early return in 2025. His contract includes a mutual option worth $8 million with a $2 million buyout, making it a $6 million decision that one side will likely decline. It is anticipated that either Kim will decline the option to seek a better deal in free agency, or the Padres will decline it due to concerns about his medical condition. Mutual options are often turned down as a way to defer money to the following year’s payroll.
There is speculation that a Qualifying Offer could pave the way for Kim to reunite with the Padres. By accepting the QO, he could demonstrate his health in 2025 and become a free agent at age 30 the following year. This scenario would allow the Padres to bring back their shortstop on a one-year contract, albeit an expensive one, during a crucial time when their World Series chances are at their peak. However, the likelihood of Kim receiving a QO depends on his progress in rehab.
In a bold prediction, CBS Sports forecasts that 15 free agents will receive Qualifying Offers this offseason, including Adames, Alonso, Bregman, Burnes, Fried, Hernández, Manaea, O’Neill, Pivetta, Profar, Santander, Severino, Soto, Wacha, and Walker. If this prediction holds true, it would set a new record for the most QOs issued in an offseason, surpassing the previous high of 14. The trend seems to be moving towards more players receiving Qualifying Offers with each passing offseason.