The playoff scenarios at Martinsville are looking quite clear-cut. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already secured their spots. Hamlin emerged victorious at Las Vegas in the first race of the third round, while Briscoe claimed the win at Talladega last week.
Now, there are six drivers vying for the remaining two spots. It’s likely that Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson will clinch those spots, or possibly one of them alongside Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron, or Joey Logano if one of the latter four drivers manages to secure a win.
Both Bell and Larson have a significant lead over the other four contenders in the points standings. Bell is 37 points ahead of Byron, who is in fifth place, while Larson is 36 points ahead of Byron. In order for Byron and Logano, who are 38 points behind Larson, to advance without a win, they would need Bell and Larson to encounter early setbacks as a maximum of 60 points can be earned in a race, with 20 of those points coming from the first two stages.
If a driver is going to secure a spot in the final round through a victory, Blaney seems to be the most likely candidate. He has triumphed in the last two fall races at Martinsville, including a thrilling win over Elliott last year and a victory over Almirola in 2023 before ultimately winning the championship.
In terms of odds, Blaney is listed at +350 to win the race at BetMGM, followed by Hamlin at +425. Hamlin boasts the best track record at Martinsville among all drivers. Meanwhile, Elliott, who last won at Martinsville in 2020 and cannot advance on points, has odds set at +650.
Despite not yet securing a spot in the title race, Bell is considered the favorite to win the championship at BetMGM, with odds currently at +250. However, there is a plausible scenario where he could miss out on the final round if Blaney wins and Larson outperforms him by two points.
Hamlin is the second-favorite for the title, ahead of Larson and Briscoe.
Martinsville favorites
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