Every year, I write a preview for the impending Most Improved Player race, and every year, I remind you that the award’s name is a lie. This award does not go to the player who improves the most. It goes to the player who improves in a specific way. This is the first-time All-Star award. The only active player to win Most Improved Player outside of his All-Star debut was C.J. McCollum. Four of the six Western Conference guards chosen that season were MVP winners: Stephen Curry, Kobe Bryant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. The fifth was an MVP runner-up in Chris Paul. The sixth, Klay Thompson, was on a 73-win team. If McCollum had been in the Eastern Conference we’d likely have a clean sweep.
Sure enough, last season’s race boiled down to a first-time All-Star (Tyrese Maxey) and a non-All-Star (Coby White). Maxey eeked out the vote by 14 points despite entering the 2023-24 season as a 20-point scorer a year earlier. White more than doubled his scoring total. It didn’t matter. One was an All-Star and the other was not. Gone are the days when Bobby Simmons and Aaron Brooks earned trophies. This is a star award now.
And we’re looking for a certain kind of star. No second-year player has won since Monta Ellis in 2007, but third-year players have won six of the past 14 awards, while fourth-year players have taken home four of the remaining eight. Of the past 17 winners, 16 have been first-round picks. We’re looking for former high draft picks in the second half of their rookie deal. Nine of the past 12 winners have been on playoff teams, so we want a winner, and while it isn’t necessary, four of the last eight winners have been in either their first or second season with a new team. The easiest way for improvement to come across statistically is usually for a player to find himself in a better situation.
It may not be just to box out no-name second-round picks who become valuable role players, but this award just isn’t for them anymore. The voters have spoken. They’re giving this award to first-time All-Stars. So let’s attempt to figure out who those players could be and what sort of value they offer in the betting market for this award.
The favorites
The following players have odds no longer than +1000
This is the second award we’ve covered in which Victor Wembanyama is literally alone in the favorites tier. He’s available at +850 or shorter. Everyone else has four-figure odds on the board. As I covered, I absolutely would not make a preseason bet on Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year. But Most Improved Player? Well… that’s another story.
Wembanyama is by far the likeliest first-time All-Star this season. He’s practically a lock if he stays healthy and plays at the level he did after the All-Star break a season ago, and he’s likely to be far better in his second season. If you assume that there are, say, five first-time All-Stars in any given season, you are locking up 20% of the pool of possible winners for a price that implies a 10.53% chance of winning. That’s just good value. I don’t think Wembanyama is going to win the award. He’s a second-year player on a team unlikely to reach the playoffs, and even if he didn’t make the All-Star Team, he’s starting from such a high point at the end of last season that I suspect he’s already too good to win this thing.
But I’d want the peace of mind that would come with owning a Wembanyama ticket. I suspect there will be three or four real candidates in the middle of the season. Even if Wembanyama isn’t at the top of the list, you’re buying injury insurance or “Wembanyama exceeds even our wildest expectations” insurance at a reasonable price.
The middle of the pack
The following players have odds between +1000 and +2500
Something to keep in mind at this point on the list is that odds tend to vary wildly between books for this award. This is an award where you really need to shop for the best price. In this tier, for example, Scottie Barnes is between +1500 and +1600 at three major books… but at +2900 at another and +3000 at his longest odds. This isn’t an award like MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, in which you generally know the five or six strong candidates before the season. It’s inherently based on surprises, which means different books are likely taking different amounts of money on different candidates, and the odds reflect that.
With that said, I’m not fond of anyone with odds shorter than +2000. Josh Giddey (+1700) is an extremely common MIP pick right now based on the logic that Chicago traded for him to put the ball in his hands, but how much will they really be able to do that? Coby White and Zach LaVine are still in place. Nikola Vucevic only provides value on offense. Even Ayo Dosunmu and Matas Buzelis need touches. Giddey, frankly, isn’t good enough to pass the first-time All-Star test.
Evan Mobley (+1200) is… just not on his current roster. If Jarrett Allen gets traded in the 2025 offseason, I will be all over Mobley’s 2026 odds. Until then, he’s a center stuck playing power forward. He’d basically need to start making 3-pointers to win this award. I’m not betting on that. Jonathan Kuminga (+1400) is going to shake off the perception that last year was his Most Improved Player campaign and take another significant leap on top of what he’s already done.
With Andrew Wiggins hopefully returning to form and the Warriors hyping up Brandin Podziemski, I don’t see the volume being there for Podziemski unless he improves as a jump shooter. So, who do I like in this range? Jalen Williams is a clear “first-time All-Star” candidate in this group. He made a strong push for a selection last season and has the potential to be a key player on a strong Thunder team. Jalen Johnson is another player to consider, as he has the opportunity to take a leap in volume playing alongside Trae Young in Atlanta. However, I’m not sold on Podziemski due to the crowded offense in Golden State.
Immanuel Quickley’s stats declined when he went from a sixth man in New York to a primary ball-handler in Toronto, but he has room for improvement this season. RJ Barrett is a player to watch as he showed improvement in Toronto last season and could be in the All-Star conversation with a higher-volume role. Jalen Suggs, available at long odds, has the potential to be a traditional point guard for the Magic.
Alperen Sengun, Cade Cunningham, Coby White, and Cam Thomas are also possible first-time All-Star candidates to consider. Michael Porter Jr. has talked about increasing his scoring volume this season and could be a dark horse candidate for the All-Star game. Lastly, Devin Vassell is worth keeping an eye on as he fights for an All-Star spot on a contender. If the Spurs manage to secure one All-Star spot, it’s unlikely to be Vassell. San Antonio would have to be among the top six teams in the Western Conference by January for Vassell to even be considered. However, he is the second-best player on a team that is on the rise, with their best player potentially already surpassing the level of this award. Just like Desmond Bane was in the running when Ja Morant won, this could be a similar scenario. At odds of 100-to-1, it might be wise to view this as a Wembanyama hedge more than anything else.