NBA Predictions! Here are 36 bold takes for 2024-25, including one for every team

Here are 36 predictions about this upcoming NBA season, including at least one involving every single team:

1. The NBA will break a 3-point barrier.

It’s no secret that the 3-point rate has soared over the past decade, but lately it hit a plateau. In the 2020-21 season, teams took 39.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. That went up to 39.9 percent during the following year, then dropped. Last season, the number nudged down to 39.5 percent. After years of rapid growth, the league reached a tipping point where the exponential rise started to level off.

Then the Celtics flipped the script. They stormed to an NBA Finals victory by hoisting nearly half of their shots from deep, making 3-pointers a central part of their winning formula.

Fast forward to this preseason, and the trend took another leap. NBA teams attempted a preseason record 44.1 percent of their shots from 3-point range:

Percentages listed represent the share of total shots taken from 3-point range.

Given this trajectory and historical trends, I’m betting that the NBA’s regular-season 3-point rate will eclipse the 40 percent mark for the first time ever. Love it or hate it, this is a copycat league, and teams are always looking to emulate what works. More teams are going to join the Long Ball revolution, pushing the league’s 3-point rate into uncharted territory.

2. Three teams will win 60-plus games this season.

Boston, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. The Celtics brought back their whole team and with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still improving, the ceiling is even higher. They’ve got depth, continuity, and motivation after last year’s Finals. The Timberwolves are built to win in the regular season. They’ve got lineup flexibility, a mix of size and defense, and a rising superstar in Anthony Edwards. OKC, meanwhile, has a legitimate MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the perfect blend of young talent and veteran additions to take the next step.

3. The Celtics go back-to-back.

I was more wrong about last year’s Celtics than any other champion in my 11 seasons covering the NBA. I doubted that Tatum and Brown could finally get them over the hump after so many close calls. I didn’t trust Joe Mazzulla to pull the right strings following such a shaky rookie season as head coach. And even after Boston bulldozed its way through the East, I chalked it up to a run of injured stars and predicted the Celtics would fall to Dallas in the Finals.

Well, I couldn’t have been more off. And now, I’m convinced they’re primed to repeat. Why the change of heart? Besides seeing them actually finish the job last year, there are multiple reasons to believe the Celtics could be even better this season. For one, Tatum’s jumper looks like it’s back to where it needs to be. Brown’s handle has visibly tightened up. Derrick White keeps ascending, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to stop. On top of that, young contributors like Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are showing signs of further development.

Add to that another year of continuity and the deeper layers Mazzulla can implement in the system, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a team in the East with fewer questions than Boston. While other contenders are wrestling with uncertainty, the Celtics have only solidified their foundation.

Even after raising Banner 18 in Boston tonight, they’ll remain doubted as a group. Tatum got benched for Team USA, and Brown was snubbed altogether. So while they may have silenced critics last season, this team is still hungry. With the roster taking another step forward, Boston looks ready to prove themselves all over again.

4. Everyone will soon realize the 2024 NBA Draft didn’t actually suck.

The criticism of this class being light on superstar talent is fair in some respects. There isn’t a surefire franchise-changing player in the mix. But championships aren’t just won by one superstar, especially in today’s NBA. Just look at the Celtics last season. They didn’t win the Finals because they had one transcendent star; they did it by rolling out six high-level starters and a deep bench.

This draft is filled with potential championship-level role players who can elevate the stars on their teams. And in both summer league and preseason alone, we already saw players begin to stand out, whether it was lottery picks like Reed Sheppard and Donovan Clingan, or sleepers like Ryan Dunn and Jaylen Wells. All throughout the draft, players are already beginning to prove that the 2024 class was an opportunity for teams to find versatile, reliable contributors who can fill their roles to perfection.

5. Dalton Knecht will be named first team All-Rookie.

Knecht’s 35-point preseason performance was a reminder of what he did regularly at Tennessee: Get so hot as a scorer that he’s unstoppable. It happened when he dropped 40 against Kentucky, 39 against Florida, and 37 against North Carolina. He had over 35 points six times last season, and at least 25 points a grand total of 13 times. While the Lakers have LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and veterans who will eat touches, it’s the presence of those proven entities that can help Knecht play with variety. There will be nights when they put the ball in his hands and let him cook, there will be others when they run him through off-ball screens to get him going. At 23 years old already as a rookie, he’s physically ready for the NBA. And with the Lakers, he looks like he’s going to get a lot of opportunities.

6. “Kawhi Leonard’s albatross contract” will become a commonly used phrase.

It was over five years ago I stood in the Raptors locker room following their NBA Finals victory over the Warriors, and watched Kawhi walk through with the limp of an elderly man. He carried the Raptors on one leg, and won a championship for his efforts.

Since leaving the Raptors for the Clippers, Kawhi has missed a staggering 40 percent of his regular-season games and 35 percent of his playoff games. Last postseason, he tried to gut it out for the Clippers, but his knee gave out again. He worked all summer to get back for opening night, only to end up sidelined indefinitely due to lingering inflammation. We’re talking about a guy who’s suffered a partially torn ACL, a torn right meniscus, and tendinopathy in both legs. His list of injuries reads like a medical textbook.

Yet somehow, the Clippers just handed him a three-year, $149.5 million extension this summer. Kawhi might still have flashes of brilliance left, but his availability is unreliable at best. This is going to be an albatross contract for LA. You can’t keep banking on Kawhi to suddenly stay healthy when his body is clearly breaking down. We’re not just looking at minor setbacks or freak accidents here. We’re talking about chronic, recurring issues. And if the Clippers are counting on him to be the cornerstone of a championship team moving forward, they’re living in a fantasy world.

7. Franz Wagner’s jumper will become the big topic in Orlando

As much as Magic fans know that I love Wagner, he is in the midst of an eight-month-long 3-point shooting slump. Look at these ugly numbers:

Ever since the calendar turned to February, Wagner has gone from an acceptable shooter (34 percent in his career at the time) to a dreadful one to close last season, which carried into the playoffs and then the Olympics. And things didn’t seem better this preseason with Wagner missing all of his seven attempts.

If Wagner continues to struggle shooting the ball, his place on a Magic roster in need of proficient shooters will be questioned. Regardless of the fact he does everything else extremely well as a 6-foot-9 shot-creator who also brings high-end, versatile defense. Which is why, if he starts shooting 3s well, he has the upside to someday become one of the 20 best players in the NBA.

Wagner is a good bet to figure it out since he’s an excellent free throw shooter (85 percent in his career) with soft touch near the basket on floaters and layups. But the results are all that matter, and whether his results are promising or worrying, his results will be one of the topics of the year in Orlando.

8. Lonzo Ball gets traded to a contender.

The last regular season game that Lonzo Ball played in was on Jan. 14, 2022. The Bulls were 27-13 and the top seed in the East. Chicago won’t be that great this season, but the team should be much better. Lonzo is back following a two-year absence, and joins a much improved Coby White with Zach LaVine set to return. Plus, head coach Billy Donovan has dramatically changed Chicago’s shot diet. Last season, the Bulls ranked 29th in 3-point rate with only 35.8 percent of their shots coming beyond the arc. In preseason, they ranked seventh with 47.2 percent of shots from 3. Better players operating in a modernized system should lead to improvement.

So, why wouldn’t the Bulls keep Lonzo? After all, Chicago has historically been happy with just making the postseason. But Lonzo will be a free agent next summer alongside Josh Giddey, then White’s deal is coming up during the 2026 summer, and LaVine is still signed to a borderline-untrad