The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Cleveland Guardians in the third and deciding game of their interleague series on Sunday Night Baseball. Cleveland secured a 6-0 victory in the series opener, while Philadelphia responded with a 7-1 win on Saturday. The Phillies, currently second in the National League East with a record of 23-16, have won four of their last five games. On the other hand, the Guardians, sitting in second place in the American League Central with a matching 23-16 record, have won five of their last seven contests.
The game is scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook favor Philadelphia as a -175 favorite on the money line, with the over-under set at 7 runs. Before making any predictions for the Phillies vs. Guardians game, it’s advisable to check out the MLB insights from SportsLine’s reliable model.
The SportsLine Projection Model has a track record of simulating every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 7 of the 2025 season with a 10-5 (67%) run on top-rated MLB money-line bets. Those who followed its picks on sportsbooks and betting apps have seen significant returns. Here are the top three bets from the model for the Phillies vs. Guardians matchup on Sunday Night Baseball:
Phillies to win (-175)
Right-hander Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA) is set to start for Philadelphia. In his eight starts this season, he has pitched 51 innings, giving up 39 hits, 19 earned runs, and nine walks, while striking out 66 with a WHIP of 0.94. Wheeler’s last outing was an 8-4 win against Tampa Bay, where he allowed just four hits, two earned runs, and no walks over seven innings. The Phillies have a 5-3 record when Wheeler is on the mound this season.
Shortstop Trea Turner has been in exceptional form for the Phillies, boasting a .318 batting average with seven doubles, two home runs, and 14 RBI in 37 games. He has also stolen nine bases and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak. Bet365 Sportsbook and DraftKings offer the best odds for the Phillies to secure a victory at -175.
Over 7 total runs (-118)
The model predicts a 68.6% chance that the teams will score more than 7.5 runs combined. In six of their last ten head-to-head matchups, the Phillies and Guardians have scored eight or more runs. The over has hit in three of the Phillies’ last six games and in eight of the Guardians’ last ten games. While Wheeler will start for Philadelphia, Cleveland will counter with right-hander Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA).
According to the model, Wheeler is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs, with Philadelphia’s relievers giving up 1.4 earned runs. Ortiz, on the other hand, is expected to allow 2.6 runs, with Cleveland’s relievers conceding 1.7 earned runs. The model anticipates a total of 9.6 runs scored in the game.
Phillies Bryce Harper to have 1+ hits (-225)
First baseman Bryce Harper has recorded hits in seven of his last ten games, including a standout performance with three hits, including a double, a home run, and two RBI in the previous game. Harper, a career .286 hitter against right-handed pitchers, is projected by the model to tally 1.02 hits and 1.99 total bases. DraftKings Sportsbook offers this prop at -225.
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