Major League Baseball’s regular season is entering its final month. In a matter of weeks, most of the league’s front offices will shift their attention toward the future by beginning to plot out their offseason strategies. We’re not ready to do that just yet — there are still playoff races to be decided, pennants to be earned, etc. — but we understand that for a lot of the reading audience, it’s time to look forward.
With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports decided to bring in the stretch run by offering an early preview of our annual free-agent rankings. For those new to this endeavor, every winter we rank the top 50 players in the class based on a combination of expected average annual value and their expected impact heading forward. Below, we’ve engaged in a modified version of the exercise, going only 20 players deep instead of 50.
We insist that you take these rankings for what they are — a snapshot in time — because we can guarantee you that our offseason rankings will have a different look to them. That’s for a few reasons, including improved clarity on the statuses of Roki Sasaki and other players with contractual options. By the time those rankings are published, we’ll also have a better feel for how front offices are sizing up the class. (Plus, you know, whatever revelations pop up over the next month-plus of games.)
With all that mumbo jumbo out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff.
Did you expect someone else? Soto will enter the market as a 26-year-old riding a Hall of Fame trajectory. Players who fit that description seldom become free agents; when they do, they get top billing. Soto will be coming off another impressive effort, as he’s likely to finish the season with 40-plus home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He’s as reliable an offensive force as there is in the majors, having never posted an OPS+ below 140 — that despite debuting as a teenager. In an ideal world, he’d be better than a scratch defender. Let’s be serious though: if Soto’s glove has a team shying away from him, they were never going to be a serious bidder anyway. He’s going to get paid, and paid something fierce this winter. He deserves it.
Burnes has scuffled as of late, turning in poor starts against several potential playoff foes, including the Astros, Guardians, and Red Sox. We’re not too worried about that; the more interesting, potentially ominous development we have our eyes on concerns the declining effectiveness of his cutter: opponents have both their best average (.263) and highest contact rate (over 83%) versus it since he made it his primary pitch in 2021. That explains why Burnes’ strikeout rate has slipped for a fourth consecutive season, making him more dependent on managing contact. Burnes is still an above-average starter with a great track record, don’t get us wrong, but the above trend is something that teams will have to assess before handing him a long-term deal this winter.
It’ll be interesting to see how teams value Bregman. He’s far enough removed from his best slugging years that we assume they’ll value him for what he is: a skilled contact and on-base merchant with a good glove and the ability to hit around 20 home runs (we don’t think he’ll find a ballpark fit as beneficial as Houston’s, meaning the 25-plus homer threshold might end up being beyond his reach). Adding to the intrigue is the fact that he’s had an odd season, hitting the ball hard more frequently than normal while also walking far less often and having to fight uphill after a poor start.
It’s hard for a player to fly under the radar when they have Fried’s track record, but he seems to manage. He’s a two-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove Award winner who could trot into the offseason with a career ERA+ above 140. Yet he feels overlooked, probably because of his workload limitations. He’s started more than 30 games just twice, and he’s averaged more than six innings per pop in a season once. Fortunately for Fried, he’s pitching in an era where teams are at greater ease with such numbers. In turn, we suspect he’s going to feel very comfortable with the figures he gets this winter.
We’re pairing Snell and Chapman together because they have a few things in common, including their current employer and the likelihood that they’ll opt out of their contracts this winter in search of greener pastures. Each is a highly accomplished player with some blemishes to their game. Still, we suspect both will find a kinder free-agent experience than what they suffered through last offseason.
Adames hasn’t returned to the heights he soared to earlier in his career, when he posted a 122 OPS+ over the 2020-21 seasons. He has, nonetheless, done enough this year to erase the sour taste left from last season. Adames will be the best power-hitting shortstop available this offseason, having averaged more than 25 home runs per 162 games for his career. He’s also sporting would-be career bests in both walk and strikeout rate. His defensive metrics have taken a hit, but it’s reasonable to think he has at least a few more years left at the six. Add in how Adames is on the sunny side of 30, and he should have plenty of long-term offers in hand come the winter.
This may strike some folks as an overrank given that Kim has never made an All-Star Game, hit 20 home runs, or batted higher than .260.
By boiling down his game to its essence, Kim emerges as a top defensive shortstop with solid hitting numbers that have been consistent over the years. This kind of player has always been valued in baseball, and Kim is still young, not even reaching his 30th birthday yet. Additionally, Kim’s offensive skills should not be overlooked – while not a power hitter, he has good contact ability and base-stealing prowess. Overall, he may not have flashy stats, but he is a reliable starter on a competitive team.
Alonso, on the other hand, may be a divisive figure in free agency. While he possesses exceptional power and a history of above-average hitting, his game is limited to that aspect. Being a right-handed first baseman approaching his 30s, Alonso may not draw the same level of interest as elite hitters like Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols. A comparison to the Paul Goldschmidt contract (five years, $130 million) might be more realistic for Alonso.
Flaherty is set for another round of free agency, and it’s likely he will fare better than his previous one-year deal. However, in a market where pitchers are abundant, teams may opt for more stable options than Flaherty, who has shown some inconsistency in recent years.
Santander’s success since being drafted in the Rule 5 draft proves that it still has value, despite some opinions that it should be retired. He has developed into a strong middle-of-the-order hitter with power and contact skills, although his defensive abilities are lacking. Turning 30 before free agency, Santander still presents an attractive option for teams.
Scherzer’s desire to continue pitching into his 40s despite recent injuries will likely attract lucrative one-year offers from contenders. Bieber’s recent elbow surgery could affect his free agency prospects, with teams possibly offering him a short-term contract to prove his health. Eovaldi’s transformation from an underperformer to a reliable starter with World Series experience makes him an appealing option for teams seeking a certain intangible quality in their rotation.
Hernández’s offensive contributions to the Dodgers lineup are noteworthy, but his age and defensive shortcomings may deter teams from committing to a long-term deal. Walker’s age and position as a right-handed-hitting first baseman may limit his market value. Despite Holmes’ increased blown saves, teams are likely to overlook this statistic and pursue him in free agency.
Severino’s pitching evolution has been successful, leading to potential multi-year offers from teams. Manaea’s return to the rotation has been positive, especially with his effective pitch repertoire. Kikuchi’s adjustments with the Astros have shown promise, indicating a potential upward trajectory in his performance. The book needs to be rewritten.