Roki Sasaki free agency: Why Dodgers are favorites for Japanese ace, and which teams may be in the running too

Chiba Lotte Marines to Post Roki Sasaki for MLB Consideration

Over the weekend, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league announced their intention to post right-hander Roki Sasaki for MLB consideration. Sasaki, 23, gained international attention after throwing a 19-strikeout perfect game during the 2022 season. As the most talented pitcher not currently signed by an MLB team, Sasaki’s earning potential as an amateur free agent will be limited by MLB’s international signing bonus pools.

While all MLB teams are expected to reach out to Sasaki once he is posted, only the Dodgers and Orioles have more than $2 million available in their 2024 signing bonus pools. However, there is a strategic advantage for Sasaki to wait until January 15 to sign, when all teams will have their full 2025 pool available, potentially increasing his earning potential.

Despite the financial implications, Sasaki’s decision to enter the MLB as an amateur suggests other factors are driving his choice. The Los Angeles Dodgers are considered the frontrunners to sign him, given their financial resources, recent World Series win, and reputation for player development. Additionally, the presence of Sasaki’s Japanese teammates, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, on the Dodgers roster adds to their appeal.

Potential Suitors Beyond the Dodgers

1. Baltimore Orioles: With over $2 million to spend, the Orioles have a young core and a strong player development program.
2. New York Yankees: The Yankees, with the third-highest bonus pool, offer prestige and a global brand.
3. San Diego Padres: While limited in this cycle, the Padres could make a move for Sasaki in January, leveraging their trading abilities and connections to Japanese players like Yu Darvish.

Ultimately, Sasaki’s decision will depend on a combination of financial considerations, winning potential, and personal development. While the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunners, other teams present compelling cases for why Sasaki might choose them.