Think about the great roster-building failures around superstars in recent NBA history, the ones that drove stars to force their way to new teams. Damian Lillard spent 11 years in Portland, but at least had one teammate make and All-Star team (LaMarcus Aldridge) and another win Most Improved Player (C.J. McCollum). Anthony Davis got one All-Star season out of DeMarcus Cousins and two All-Defense selections for Jrue Holiday during his New Orleans Pelicans tenure. LeBron James, the absolute poster boy for stars carrying mismanaged organizations during his first tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers, at least managed to milk a single All-Star season each out of Mo Williams and Zydrunas Illgauskas and an All-Defense year out of Anderson Varejao.
But Nikola Jokić? In a full decade with the Nuggets, not a single teammate of his has ever made an All-Star Game or won an individual trophy. He has never played with an All-NBA player, an All-Defense teammate or for a Coach or Executive of the Year, and both his head coach (Michael Malone) and lead executive (Calvin Booth) just got fired. The only way he has ever seen a teammate honored for their own performance is through an All-Rookie selection. Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Bones Hyland were chosen. Neither made First Team.
Typically, the single easiest way to keep a star happy is to surround him with other stars. The Nuggets have done as poor a job of that as almost any team in recent memory. If we were talking about any other superstar, there would be probably be trade request rumblings by now.
There are a variety of possible reasons we haven’t in Jokić’s case, but the Nuggets need to remember that none of them are bulletproof. Yes, he’s won a championship in Denver. If championships guaranteed eternal harmony, Giannis Antetokounmpo wouldn’t drop trade request hints every summer. He seemingly has a pretty low-maintenance personality, but plenty of unassuming stars have gotten antsy. Kawhi Leonard was the Spursiest Spur that ever Spurred. We assumed San Antonio was immune to the player empowerment era until it wasn’t. Damian Lillard was the face of NBA loyalty in Portland. He now plays for the Bucks.
The allegiance of almost any Jokić-level player is fickle. It cannot be taken for granted. And even if Jokić pledged to spend the rest of his career in Denver tomorrow, the alternative of wasting that career is just as bad. This is perhaps one of the 10 greatest players in the history of basketball. He plays in a conference that is not only loaded, but young and improving. The Thunder aren’t going away. The Spurs are coming. Luka Dončić is building his own contender with the Lakers. Maybe there was a time in which having Jokić, alone, was enough to meaningfully contend for championships. It isn’t anymore. He needs an organization capable of helping him.
Even at the best of times, the opposite has been true. Advocates for Denver’s front office would point to the job they’ve done in surround Jokić with players whose skill sets he can maximize. Aaron Gordon, as a middling lottery pick turned seamlessly fitting role player, is a perfect example. Russell Westbrook’s renaissance is another. It’s just worth wondering how much credit the front office deserves for moves like that when Jokić may simply be a miracle worker. LeBron James couldn’t make Westbrook work. That Jokić could suggests that he is uniquely capable of lifting just about any teammate, not that his front office was especially skilled at finding the right ones. He’s helping them, not the other way around.
And if that is true, what does it say about the roster Denver has assembled that Jokić hasn’t been able to lift it into guaranteed contention? The Nuggets will win between 47 and 50 games this season. They won 48 in 2022, when Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. combined to play nine games. Jokić has been better statistically this season than he was then. The overall supporting cast has just been that much worse.
The problems with Denver’s roster
Obviously, the primary culprit here is the bench. The Nuggets are 18.6 points per 100 possessions worse whenever Jokić rests. Just about every measure Booth took try to fix that bench failed. His two mid-level signings since winning the championship were Reggie Jackson, who was later cap-dumped, and Dario Šarić, who does not play. Westbrook is the only minimum-salary veteran who has given them much, and even he is pretty hit or miss. Booth draft picks like Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson have shown little. Peyton Watson hasn’t grown on offense. Booth was confident letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk because he trusted Christian Braun to fill in for him as a starter. He has… but nobody has replaced Braun on the bench. The Zeke Nnaji contract has thus far proven untradable.
But the starters have been far from unimpeachable in their own right, at least as individuals. While the five-man unit of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Porter and Braun has a +12.2 net rating, according to Cleaning the Glass, that number plummets to -11.3 in the admittedly small 103-possession sample the other four have played without Jokić. The samples remain small on a year-to-year basis, but that’s been a relatively consistent trend. Last year’s starters posted a -12 net rating without Jokić. During the championship season, it was -7.3. Strip down those lineups even further to just the two centerpieces and things look even grimmer. Not once in Murray’s career have Nuggets lineups featuring him without Jokić ever posted a positive net rating over a full season.
This is pretty problematic in the context of his contract.
Last offseason, Denver made the decision to re-sign Murray to a four-year max extension despite a challenging 2023-24 season and a disappointing Olympic performance with Team Canada. Porter Jr. also received a five-year max extension following his rookie deal. While Porter’s contract has not faced as much criticism due to Jokić’s stellar play overshadowing it, the Nuggets are now facing challenges with these expensive contracts hindering their ability to make significant improvements to the team.
The Nuggets are finding it difficult to make impactful moves in free agency or through trades due to their limited assets and the high value their core players hold within the team. Gordon, Porter, and Murray all have unique roles alongside Jokić, making it hard for other teams to see them as valuable assets. With the departure of key front office personnel in the past, the Nuggets may struggle to find innovative solutions to their current predicament.
As the situation grows increasingly dire, there is a possibility that Jokić may consider leaving the team to pursue success elsewhere. This could result in him spending the remaining years of his prime on a team that does not fully appreciate his talents. The Nuggets may be at risk of squandering the opportunity to maximize Jokić’s potential and secure a legacy befitting his exceptional skills.
With Jokić’s contract running through 2026-27, the Nuggets face the prospect of potentially losing a generational talent without providing him the support needed to achieve his full potential. The organization’s failure to build a championship-caliber team around Jokić raises concerns about their commitment to maximizing his talents and securing his place among the all-time greats. The replacements currently in place face a challenging task in rectifying the situation. The team lacks valuable trade assets and is burdened by numerous unwise contracts, compounded by the most restrictive NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement ever devised. Furthermore, the group in charge has a history of reluctance to invest in top talent to address these issues.
Acknowledging the problem is the first step for the Nuggets to start the repair process. However, with star player Jokić entering his 30s and a multitude of obstacles hindering roster development, time is of the essence. If the new coach and general manager hires are not successful, the era of Nuggets basketball may be remembered as a squandered opportunity for greatness in the annals of the sport.