Nothing is ever guaranteed in baseball, though the safest bet of the offseason is the Chicago White Sox trading ace Garrett Crochet. The ChiSox somewhat surprisingly did not move Crochet at the deadline, possibly because he demanded an extension in exchange for pitching in the postseason, but Chicago is unlikely to keep him this winter. Crochet’s trade value has never been higher and now is the time for the 121-loss White Sox to cash him in as a trade chip.
“They’re going to trade him this winter,” one rival evaluator told ESPN at last week’s GM Meetings. “It’s not a matter of if. It’s a question of when.”
Crochet, who turned only 25 in June, is our No. 1 trade candidate this offseason. He has been connected to several teams since the World Series ended a little more than two weeks ago, and given his affordable salary and two years of control, Crochet makes sense for every single team. Contenders, rebuilders, teams on the bubble, etc. There is never a bad time to add an ace-caliber starter, especially one you can keep for more than one season.
In 2024, Crochet threw 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, though the White Sox were statistically the worst defensive team in the game, so Crochet’s ERA is inflated. The under-the-hood numbers indicate he was much better than a 3.58 ERA pitcher: 2.69 FIP, 2.83 expected ERA, and 2.75 deserved run average. Crochet pitched at an ace level, truly, and it was his first season as a big-league starter. He initially broke into the show as a reliever.
Watch Crochet pitch and it’s fairly obvious why he’s an in-demand trade candidate. Lefties who reside in the upper 90s and have a wipeout breaking ball are rare. Crochet has closer stuff as a starter. Here are three more reasons the southpaw is the most attractive starting pitcher on the trade market this winter.
1. The strikeout and walk rates are absurd
In his first season as a starter, Crochet proved to be one of the game’s top bat-missers and also one of the game’s best control artists. Some guys run high strikeout rates but also have high walk rates because they try to get hitters to chase. Others have low walk rates and also low strikeout rates because they’re in the zone a lot. Crochet fits neither group.
Among the 81 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2024, Crochet had the highest strikeout rate (by a lot) and also the 12th lowest walk rate. Here are the strikeout rate leaders among those 81 pitchers:
- Garrett Crochet: 35.1% of batters faced
- Chris Sale: 32.1%
- Tarik Skubal: 30.3%
- Sonny Gray: 30.3%
- Jack Flaherty: 29.9%
That 35.1% strikeout rate came with a 5.5% walk rate, which is in the same range as control artists like Seth Lugo (5.7%) and Logan Webb (5.8%). The MLB averages for starting pitchers were 22.0% strikeouts and 7.6% walks in 2024. Crochet was comfortably better than the league average in both categories. Missing this many bats while walking that few is a rare combination.
There is more to life than strikeout and walk rates, and these days we can measure exactly what kind of contact a pitcher allows. Crochet this year was almost perfectly league average in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed, and he did a good job generating ground balls and infield pop-ups. He’s not elite, like his strikeout and walk rates, but he’s very good.
Put it all together — elite strikeout rate, elite walk rate, above average ground ball and infield pop-up rates, average contact quality — and you have one of the top starters in the game. Usually there’s some give and take. You take the strikeouts and live with the walks, you take the ground balls and live with some hard contact, but not with Crochet. He’s very well-rounded.
2. He added a new pitch late in the season
Crochet’s move into the rotation was as successful as it was because he added a cutter, a pitch that bridged his upper-90s fastball and mid-80s sweeper nicely. The cutter sits low-90s and the movement profiles fits in snuggly between his fastball and sweeper. Basically, the cutter forces hitters to look in a third location and makes Crochet that much more unpredictable.
Late in the season, Crochet added another new pitch, this time an upper-90s sinker. He threw it only 50 times all year and all 50 came after Aug. 3. He threw 36 of those 50 sinkers in his final three starts. Clearly, Crochet was tinkering with a new pitch as the season wound down, the results were promising. Opponents hit .154 and missed with a third of their swings against the sinker.
Coming into 2024, Crochet was a fastball/sweeper guy with a show-me changeup. Now he’s a fastball/cutter/sweeper guy with a burgeoning sinker and a show-me changeup. And thanks to that expanding arsenal, Crochet was more effective against righties (.640 OPS) than lefties (.651 OPS) in 2024. This isn’t a lefty who runs into trouble against lineups stacked with righties.
As important as the raw stuff is the aptitude. Crochet showed us this year that he can learn new pitches, is willing to throw them in games, and can quickly incorporate them into his arsenal. It’s not easy! Some guys add new pitches and are a bit skittish about using them in games, or they simply can’t figure out the grip. Crochet can do all those things. He’s coachable and adaptable.
3. He’s dirt cheap
The White Sox called Crochet up to the big leagues soon after selecting him with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 draft. He made just 12 starts before the 2024 season, but in those 12 starts, he showed enough for White Sox decision-makers to pencil him into the 2024 rotation. And he was great. The White Sox have Crochet under team control for two more seasons and he won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season. He’s making the league minimum right now and will for the next two years.
The 2020 draft saw the selection of a promising player at number 11. He made an immediate impact by helping his team reach the postseason in 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, his elbow suffered a major setback in April 2022, leading to Tommy John surgery and forcing him to sit out the entire 2022 season and most of 2023. However, he made a strong comeback in the 2024 season after fully recovering from the surgery.
Due to his early jump to the big leagues and subsequent success as a frontline starter, this player is now just two years away from free agency. Despite his potential, his salary remains low due to his past injury and time spent as a reliever. In 2024, he earned $800,000 as an arbitration-eligible player, with a projected salary of $2.9 million for 2025. This affordability makes him a valuable asset for any team.
With his low salary, every team in the league can afford to acquire this player. Unlike some high-priced stars, he offers a cost-effective option that allows teams to maintain payroll flexibility for additional roster improvements. His performance, potential, and affordability make him an attractive trade target for many teams.
Despite the injury risk associated with his past Tommy John surgery, this player’s overall skill set and cost-effective contract make him a desirable trade asset. He has proven himself as a dominant pitcher with room for growth and adjustment, making him a valuable addition to any team looking to strengthen their pitching rotation.