The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will look to regain the upper hand in their best-of-seven series when they battle the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup on Friday in the 2025 NBA playoffs. OKC evened the series with a 149-106 win on Wednesday as the Thunder set a new season-high in points scored, while Denver tied a season-high in points allowed. The Thunder (68-14), who won the Northwest Division, are 34-8 on the road in 2024-25, including the playoffs. The Nuggets (50-32), the fourth seed in the West, are 29-16 on their home court this season.
Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 10 p.m. ET. The teams have split four previous playoff series and split their four matchups in the 2024-25 regular season. They’ve also split their six total games this season versus the spread. The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 232.5. OKC is priced at -246 on the money line (risk $246 to win $100), while Denver is at +201 (risk $100 to win $201). Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, including a 3-0 mark in the playoffs, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Nuggets vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 at DraftKings
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 232.5 points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets money line: Oklahoma City -246, Denver +201
- OKC: The Thunder have covered the spread in 57 of their last 90 games (+25.10 units)
- DEN: The Nuggets have hit the game total over in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.50 units)
- Thunder vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Nuggets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been dominant this postseason. In six playoff starts, he is averaging 29.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.2 steals in 35 minutes. In Wednesday’s rout of the Nuggets, he poured in 34 points, while dishing out eight assists and grabbing four rebounds. He registered a near triple-double in the Game 1 loss to Denver, scoring 33 points, while adding 10 rebounds, eight assists and two steals.
Forward Jalen Williams is one of four Oklahoma City players averaging double-figure scoring this postseason. In six starts, he is averaging 21 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.3 steals and one block in 33.3 minutes.
After an impressive performance in Wednesday’s win, where he recorded 17 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, he continued his strong play in a 114-108 victory over Memphis on April 24, scoring 26 points, along with six rebounds, five assists, and two steals. The Denver Nuggets are looking strong heading into their next game.
Center Nikola Jokic has been a standout player this postseason, averaging nearly a triple-double with 25.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, two steals, and one block per game in nine starts. He had a stellar performance in the Game 1 win against the Thunder, putting up 42 points, 22 rebounds, six assists, and two blocks.
Point guard Jamal Murray has also been a key contributor for the Nuggets, averaging 21.7 points, 5.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and one steal in nine starts. He had a solid showing in the series opener against the Thunder with 21 points, six boards, and six assists.
The SportsLine model predicts a total of 220 combined points in the Thunder vs. Nuggets game, with one side of the spread hitting in over 50% of simulations. For more detailed insights and NBA picks, check out SportsLine.
If you’re wondering who will come out on top in the Thunder vs. Nuggets matchup and which side of the spread to bet on, visit SportsLine now to make an informed decision. Get access to the model that has generated over $10,000 in top-rated NBA picks.