Middleweight headliner season is in full swing. UFC Vegas 102’s main event will be the third straight UFC event with a 185-pound tilt closing the show, as Jared Cannonier meets Gregory Rodrigues.
After last weekend’s title fight rematch between the champion Dricus du Plessis and challenger Sean Strickland, the time is now for each to capitalize.
Outside of the stakes in the matchup, UFC Vegas 102 is mostly your bare-bones typical APEX Facility amalgamation of warehouse fisticuffs. Let’s break it all down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185 pounds: Jared Cannonier (+190) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-225)
Saturday’s UFC Vegas 102 main event is as much of a crossroads matchup as it gets. Cannonier, 40, is on a downward skid after back-to-back losses, while Rodrigues, 32, can extend his win streak to four.
Cannonier has been an inconsistent yet still dangerous middleweight fighter of late. He holds wins over former champions Sean Strickland and Anderson Silva and set a UFC record for the most significant strikes landed in a middleweight bout with his performance over Marvin Vettori in his most recent victory — a June 2023 unanimous decision. Since then, both Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho proved once again that time is every athlete’s biggest enemy, as the youthful duo out-volumed and out-damaged Cannonier en route to wins in 2024.
Rodrigues is fearless when it comes to a good, old-fashioned war. That will help — and potentially hurt — him against a fighter who still packs the power Cannonier does. However, Cannonier’s once-impressive durability has appeared to fade after a long career competing against top-level fighters. Imavov and Borralho both hurt him standing. “Robocop” lives up to his nickname and won’t go away.
This should primarily be a striking affair, and the pressure Rodrigues brings in exchanges and clinch warfare will wear on Cannonier over time. In the end, the tides will continue to turn in the 185-pound waters.
Pick: Rodrigues
145 pounds: Calvin Kattar (+360) vs. Youssef Zalal (-500)
If there’s one fight not to miss on this card, it’s the co-main event between Calvin Kattar and Youssef Zalal.
Kattar, a perennial featherweight contender, has recently fallen onto hard times of late and is riding a three-fight losing streak. Similar to the main event, this is also a crossroads fight, with Zalal on the other side surging and looking better than ever. Zalal left the UFC after a majority draw in August 2022 ended his first stint with the promotion, but he hasn’t lost in six straight appearances — three since returning to the Octagon.
Kattar, 36, is as tough as they come, but the miles may be catching up to him after hard-fought losses to Josh Emmett and Aljamain Sterling, with an ACL tear against Arnold Allen sandwiched between. Boxing is where Kattar typically shines, and seeing how he and Zalal collide in that department is a compelling possibility, however the fight IQ of the Morrocan has expanded tremendously over his recent stretch, as Zalal has taken fights to the ground when necessary and submitted his past four opponents with rear-naked chokes and arm triangles (two each). His combinations are nasty as a striker and deliver damage with more than just punches.
Kattar vs. Zalal is another case of momentum in opposite directions, and Zalal is putting it all together at just 28 years old.
Pick: Zalal
185 pounds: Edmen Shahbazyan (-375) vs. Dylan Budka (+300)
Speaking of inconsistent middleweights, Edmen Shahbazyna is back in action.
The career of the former Edmond Tarverdyan protégé has been a roller coaster, to say the least. When you actually dissect the path of Shahbazyan, it’s a classic story of “too much, too soon.” Shahbazyan has only lost to veterans or ranked contenders like Imavov, Jack Hermansson, Derek Brunson, Anthony Hernandez and Gerald Meerschaert. All it took was one stellar head kick against Brad Tavares in November 2019 to get the UFC overly excited.
Outside of the opponents listed, Shahbazyan beats those on a similar experience level to him, and on paper, Budka is a relative layup.
Having suffered losses in each of his first two UFC appearances after earning a contract through the Contender Series, Budka will have to overcome the fast start of Shahbazyan. Budka needs to catch him with a big shot or tire Shahbazyan late for a stoppage — both of which are easier said than done.
Pick: Shahbazyan
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