UFC Vegas 105 predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Lerone Murphy a legit title threat?

Nothing screams UFC in 2025 like two international pit stops in London and Mexico City before a return to the lifeless Las Vegas APEX Facility for UFC Vegas 105. Enjoy the escapes when they happen, folks.

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This weekend’s evening of action centers around the featherweight division, with perennial contender Josh Emmett looking to inch his way closer to a first career title shot. Standing in his way will be the undefeated rising Brit, Lerone Murphy.

With the 145-pound division wide open after the now-former champion Ilia Topuria vacated his crown to move to lightweight, every contender’s chances of battling for gold instantly improved. The co-main event will be more of a prospect battle within the division when Joanderson Brito looks to earn a statement win over Pat Sabatini.

UFC Vegas 105 overall is somewhat backward in its organization. The preliminary portion features several familiar faces who have been around for a hot minute, therefore the card is bottom-heavy. You don’t see that very often, but that’s just fine and dandy. Let’s make our weekly picks, shall we?

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

145 pounds: Josh Emmett (+260) vs. Lerone Murphy (-325)

I don’t have any real explanation for it, but Emmett just doesn’t seem like he’s 40 years old. Maybe it’s because he’s still one of the best featherweights on the planet, capable of breaking anyone’s jaw in the blink of an eye while also being stupendously durable, suffering only one knockout loss in 23 fights.

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Father time catches up to everyone at some point, though.

Emmett is one of those super-talented wrestlers out of Team Alpha Male who fell in love with his knockout power. However, it hasn’t been a negative, as he has that death touch similar (but not equal) to a prime Johny Hendricks at welterweight. If you were around for the Hendricks days as UFC champion, you know how high of praise that is.

As well-rounded as Emmett is, Murphy can say the same with his sharp and refined game. The man has yet to lose in his 16-fight career. In this one, wrestling will be used in a defensive or positional manner, and Emmett’s X-factor will need to be negated by Murphy closing the distance and making it a dirty boxing match against the cage. As seen in his Edson Barboza win, Murphy’s ability to control the pace and dictate a five-round fight was a surprisingly good sign of where he’s at.

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If there’s one aspect to highlight about the danger of Emmett’s power, it’s that he’s generally only bolted fighters with significantly lesser striking. An exception was Michael Johnson, who was on his way to winning a decision against Emmett before the Hail Mary blow. Murphy’s recent win against Dan Ige was relatively lackluster, but the guy knows how to win and adapts well to all opponents. The oddsmakers have these lines a bit too wide. Regardless, I’m still confident Murphy is the real deal.

Pick: Murphy

145 pounds: Pat Sabatini (+200) vs. Joanderson Brito (-250)

Joanderson Brito has been a firecracker in the Octagon.

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Between the Brazilian’s first and last UFC fights, he brutalized five opponents and finished them all impressively. He’ll go for the kill with strikes or submissions when blood is in the water. Obviously, that’s the big swing in the odds here because Sabatini is better than he gets credit for, especially after a flawless first-round submission of Jonathan Pearce this past October.

Sabatini is your prototypical strong, stocky wrestler, which makes this an interesting challenge for Brito, considering his losses to William Gomis and Bill Algeo in the UFC. However, Sabatini’s chin is a question mark despite only two knockout losses on his record. Brito is just that dynamic and explosive with his offensive striking. If he catches Sabatini, the autopilot reaction will be to wrestle, which he already wants to do.

Brito is a winnable matchup for Sabatini. The former CFFC champion just doesn’t have as many paths to victory.

Pick: Brito

135 pounds: Cortavious Romious (+105) vs. Lee Chang-ho (-125)

This is a battle of UFC feeder leagues. It’s Contender Series vs. Road to UFC.

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Cortavious Romious and Lee Chang-ho saw their UFC careers get off to opposite starts in 2024. Romious lost a unanimous decision to talented former kickboxer and Bellator vet Gaston Bolanos, while Lee earned a split decision against Long Xiao.

Lee has been a smashing machine at bantamweight, picking up a healthy handful of his wins via ground-and-pound. You don’t want this guy on top of you.

Romious will be well aware of that. While he’s capable of submissions, the battle within the battle will be for control. It’s somewhat of a coin flip because of each’s strengths, but Lee’s been the more consistent.

Pick: Lee

265 pounds: Martin Buday (-155) vs. Uran Satybaldiev (+130)

Everybody loves a whacky short-notice tussle. That’s what Martin Buday gets to work with after a late withdrawal from Kennedy Nzechukwu. LFA light heavyweight champion Uran Satybaldiev now gets his opportunity to hold a UFC roster spot.

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Despite the new division, Satybaldiev is a big dude who should fit in for this potential one-off appearance. His 80-inch reach surpasses Buday’s by three inches and matches his 6-foot-4 height.

Skill-for-skill, Satybaldiev is a very talented, undefeated 9-0 light heavyweight prospect. However, the circumstances may be too much to overcome, especially against an experienced Buday. Satybaldiev just fought in March when he successfully defended his LFA title in an all-out war against Leon Soares. He scored the third-round kimura finish, but took damage in the process. If not fully recovered, this could be a tough night for the newcomer.

Expect Satybaldiev to come out aggressive, seeking a fast, statement-making finish. I’m just going to keep things on the safe side and go with the fresher man, Buday.

Pick: Buday

185 pounds: Brad Tavares (-210) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+170)

The odds on Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert are the most stunning on the UFC Vegas 105 lineup.

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This is a proper veteran matchup. It’s kind of surprising to see the UFC go in the direction of putting these two together rather than against rising contenders. Meerschaert did have his opportunity against the submission wizard Reinier de Ridder in his most recent fight, however as the MMA world should know by now, Meerschaert is the face in the dictionary next to “got-or-get-got.”

“GM3” has only gone the distance seven times in his 55-fight career. Against Tavares, he’ll have his work cut out with him in the form of a very refined, poised and durable veteran. Tavares has always had strong takedown defense and holds a fundamental boxing edge. Ultimately, Meerschaert will go for takedowns and won’t care if he’s on top or bottom. The man finds a way with his submissions, and the history books reflect it at middleweight.

Tavares has never been submitted before. That changes on Saturday.

Pick: Meerschaert

185 pounds: Torrez Finney (-275) vs. Robert Valentin (+220)

Torrez Finney is just a big, physical, intimidating presence at 185 pounds. The undefeated 10-0 prospect will finally make his UFC debut after having to win two Contender Series bouts in another feeder-style matchup, with Robert Valentin coming in off “The Ultimate Fighter.”

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Stylistically, Finney is a tall task for Valentin, who was put away with ground strikes by the strong wrestler Ryan Loder in the finals of TUF 32’s middleweight bracket. This fight will come down to physicality and power — Finney’s wheelhouse.

Pick: Finney

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