Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot | UFC 315 co-main breakdown
Who will win Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot? MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 315 co-headliner.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 315 co-main event between women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and Mannon Fiorot.
Valentina Shevchenko UFC 315 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC
- Height: 5’5″
- Age: 37
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 65.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Alexa Grasso (Sept. 14, 2024)
- Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- +UFC women’s flyweight champion
- +17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
- +9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
- +Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
- +6 KO victories
- +7 submission wins
- +6 first-round finishes
- +KO power
- +Solid footwork
- ^Seldom out of position
- +Accurate check hook and counter cross
- +Hard knees, elbows and kicks
- +Crafty clinch game
- ^Good trips and tosses
- +Strong positional grappler
- +/-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Manon Fiorot UFC 315 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC
- Age: 35
- Height: 5’7″
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 66″
- Last fight: Decision win over Erin Blanchfield (March 30, 2024)
- Camp: Boxing Squad (France)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- +Regional MMA titles
- +IMMAF amateur world champion (MMA)
- +Karate black belt
- +Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- +Multiple muay Thai accolades (12-0 as a pro)
- +6 KO victories
- +1 first-round finish
- +Aggressive pace and pressure
- +Good striking ability
- ^Favors headhunting but will mix in kicks
- +Strong inside the clinch
- ^Shows good over and underhook awareness
- +Serviceable takedown ability
- ^Defensively and offensively
- +/-0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
The co-main event for UFC 315 features a women’s flyweight title fight between two southpaw strikers.
Shevchenko, who has a bit more of a southpaw sample size, officially stands at 2-1 opposite UFC-level lefties.
Indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat sports since she was 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check hooks to counter crosses on a hair trigger. Whenever someone tries to step off to the champion’s weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled.
I suspect that Shevchenko will lean heavier on jabbing and leg kick dynamics given that she’s facing a fellow southpaw, but she’ll need to be mindful of the hooks and crosses coming back her way.
Enter Manon Fiorot.
A karateka since the age of seven, Fiorot embodies much of the in-and-out movement that one would associate with sport karate.
Practically keeping the same approach when fighting fellow lefties, Fiorot throws a lot of the weapons that southpaws should never leave home without. Whether Fiorot’s variating between jabs and hooks or parlaying missed Thai kicks into sidekicks, the French fighter seems to maintain a decent flow to her offensive output.
Despite sometimes having the propensity to headhunt, Fiorot will mix up said sidekick to both the legs and body in an attempt to halt her opponent’s advances. However, I’m not sure how much Fiorot will be looking to kick given the looming grappling threat that Shevchenko presents.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot breakdown: Potential grappling threats
As alluded to in the previous section, Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light in closed quarters.
Like we’ve seen in past Shevchenko fights, fighters who come in hot on the champion tend to get grounded accordingly – particularly when trying to do so from the clinch.
No longer underrated inside this space, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does Shevchenko wield mean elbows off the break, but the Kyrgyzstani is also better about getting her back off of the fence at this weight class.
Aside from not being shy about incorporating clinch throws and tosses during her muay Thai days, Shevchenko has also developed a taste for level-changing takedowns in MMA (at least since the latter end of her championship run).
Even though wrestling may not always be the most strategic adjustment, Shevchenko seems to rely on it as a go-to option when she needs to make a comeback.
Shevchenko had some impressive moments in her fights with Grasso, particularly on the ground where she secured advantageous positions like rear mounts and crucifixes. However, taking Fiorot down has proven to be a challenge in the UFC, despite her recent drop in takedown defense statistics.
Fiorot has a good grasp of using over and underhooks to defend against takedowns, with a preference for a strong whizzer that allows her to sprawl her hips and break grips effectively. She has also shown the ability to score takedowns of her own, even if they are not always well-timed.
In terms of grappling skills, Fiorot has displayed decent skills from topside in her octagon appearances. It will be interesting to see how she fares against a fighter like Shevchenko who poses a significant threat with her takedowns.
The odds slightly favor Fiorot over Shevchenko, but I find it challenging to justify Fiorot as the favorite. Despite some questionable tendencies and lower-volume fights, Shevchenko is still the more skilled and experienced fighter in my opinion.
While Fiorot initially impressed with her high-volume style, she has struggled to maintain that output against tougher competition. She also shows signs of a questionable gas tank and decision-making, which could be exploited by a seasoned fighter like Shevchenko.
I anticipate a tactical fight with Shevchenko using her jab, counters, and wrestling to control the pace. Despite the potential for head kicks given Fiorot’s predictability, I predict Shevchenko will secure a decision victory.
Prediction: Shevchenko by decision
The fight between Shevchenko and Fiorot is scheduled as the co-main event and is expected to start around 11:45 p.m. ET. Viewers can watch the fight on ESPN+ pay-per-view. phrase “take a deep breath” as “inhale deeply”