Last month the Toronto Blue Jays failed to reach a long-term contract extension with first baseman and franchise player Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero set a Feb. 18 deadline for talks (Toronto’s first full squad workout) and the two sides were unable to reach a deal. He will become a free agent after the season and will test the open market.
“We didn’t get an agreement. Now they’re going to have to compete with 29 other teams,” Guerrero said following his self-imposed deadline. “… They had their numbers, I had my numbers. It’s just business, like I always say. Things happen. We’re all good.”
Guerrero confirmed the Blue Jays offered a $340 million extension early in the offseason, before Juan Soto changed the landscape with his record 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. We don’t know what Toronto offered at the Feb. 18 deadline. We do know what Guerrero asked for though. He confirmed this week he sought a deal worth less than $600 million.
Here’s what Guerrero told ESPN’s Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez earlier this week:
“It’s much less than Soto. We’re talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. … It was the same number of years [as Soto’s contract], but it didn’t reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn’t reach 600,” Guerrero said.
“I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. … I’m looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way.”
Guerrero, like Soto, is entering his age 26 season. Soto was a year younger than Guerrero when he hit free agency and his 15-year contract takes him through his age 40 season. Guerrero said he asked for “the same number of years” as Soto, meaning a 15-year deal that takes him through age 41. For a star player in his mid-20s, a deal that takes him to age 40 is not an unreasonable ask.
Prior to his extension deadline, we listed Guerrero as one of 10 extension candidates entering spring training, and we workshopped an offer that came out to $585 million. Here’s the write-up:
These days, stars get signed through age 39 (Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge) or 40 (Soto, Manny Machado). That’s the magic number. To sign Guerrero through age 39, it would be a 13-year deal starting in 2026. Call it $45 million a year and that’s $585 million total. And given the leverage Vlad Jr. has over the Blue Jays, that could become 14 years at closer to $50 million per year real quick. Crazy? Yeah, maybe, though contracts for stars in their mid-20s always wind up larger than expected. Remember, at this time last year, we were talking about Soto maybe cracking $500 million. Whatever you think Guerrero will get, take the over.
Guerrero said his offer to the Blue Jays was the same number of years as Soto (15) but also worth less than $600 million, so less than $40 million per year. Soto ($51 million), Shohei Ohtani ($46.1 million after deferrals), Judge ($40 million), and Alex Bregman ($40 million before deferrals) are the only $40 million per year position players in baseball right now.
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Whether giving Guerrero a 15-year deal worth close to $600 million is a smart baseball move is a separate matter. Given the contract landscape for star players in their mid-20s, Guerrero and his camp were not being unreasonable by seeking a contract that locked him up through age 40 and approached $40 million a year. That’s what it costs to sign top players this young.
Last season, Guerrero authored a .323/.396/.544 batting line with 44 doubles and 30 home runs. That earned him a sixth-place finish in the AL MVP voting on a last-place team that went 74-88 and missed the postseason by 12 games. Since his MLB debut in 2021, Guerrero’s 137 OPS+ is the seventh highest among the 41 players with at least 3,000 plate appearances.
Toronto has a few key players, including Guerrero, Bassitt, Bichette, and Green, who are set to become free agents after this season. The Blue Jays have shown interest in top free agents like Ohtani and Soto in recent years, but they have struggled to convince players to sign with them despite having the financial resources to make competitive offers.