This is it for Billy Wagner on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. He’s in his 10th and final season. He’s off the ballot next year, it’s just a matter of if that’s because he’s made it to Cooperstown or missed out on his last chance.
I think he gets in. I think he deserves to. I’ll be voting for him. Before we get to that, though, let’s take a glance at his ballot progression and chances.
Ballot progression
Remember, a player needs at least 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot and 75% to make the Hall of Fame. Here’s how things have gone for Wagner in his first nine years on the ballot.
- 2016: 10.5%
- 2017: 10.2%
- 2018: 11.1%
- 2019: 16.7%
- 2020: 31.7%
- 2021: 46.4%
- 2022: 51%
- 2023: 68.1%
- 2024: 73.8%
He was only five votes short out of 385 total last year. It doesn’t always happen, but there’s often a final year bump. There are also new voters (hello!) joining the party. Some voters lapse. The voting body changes.
Wagner’s case
The biggest mark against Wagner is his position as a reliever. Relief pitchers in Hall of Fame voting have, for the most part, faced the stigma that “relievers are failed starters.” Wagner was, sort of. He was a starter in the minors before moving to the bullpen, though he never made a major-league start. His is a case where he switched to reliever in the minors and very quickly stuck in the majors. He was such a stud that there was never a consideration to move him back.
Wagner ranks eighth in career saves at 422, trailing the Gold Standards of his generation — Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman — greatly. If you put his rate stats beside Hoffman, though, you’ll see what a beast Wagner was.
Wagner had a 2.31 ERA and 0.998 WHIP. Hoffman finished at 2.87 and 1.058, respectively. Wagner struck out 1,196 hitters, a rate of 11.9 K/9. Hoffman fanned 1,133 at a rate of 9.4 K/9.
This isn’t to denigrate Hoffman. Wagner’s 2.31 ERA through a heavy offensive era meant that he posted a 187 ERA+. Compare that to Hall of Fame relievers Hoyt Wilhelm (147), Goose Gossage (126), Hoffman (141), Lee Smith (148), Rollie Fingers (120) and Bruce Sutter (136) and you get the picture. Rivera’s 205 is obviously another indicator that he’s the best ever, but Wagner trails only him.
The shortfall on Wagner is workload. He managed 903 innings pitched in his career, spent primarily with the Astros with stops with the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. Of all the closers mentioned above, the one with the lowest innings total is Sutter at 1,042. Hoffman sits at 1,089 ⅓.
My argument here is that Wagner was so much better on a rate basis in his time that it makes up for the shortfall, but it’s always tough to line those things up.
WAR is a stat that attempts to do so.
Wagner finished with a career WAR of 27.7. Hoffman was at 28. Smith was at 28.9, Fingers at 25.6 and Sutter at 24. In JAWS, Wagner ranks sixth all time among relievers after Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman (though rounding to one decimal, Hoffman and Wagner are tied at 23.7). Behind Wagner? Smith, Fingers and Sutter.
Does Wagner really look out of place anywhere here? He has more saves than Sutter, Fingers and Gossage. He has more strikeouts than Sutter, Hoffman and Rivera.
Compared to the other closers, other than The G.O.A.T. Rivera and Eckersley — who got a lot of work as a starter — I’m just not seeing much separation to warrant keeping Wagner out.
If you wanted a fame factor, yes, living through his career as a baseball fan, Billy Wagner was that big a deal. Plus, he had a legendary fastball. In fact, it’s widely hailed as one of the greatest fastballs in MLB history.
There’s another component to consider.
The impact of Wagner in the Hall of Fame
The closer back in the ’70s and into the ’80s saw pitchers working multiple innings quite often. We rarely see that nowadays with the role becoming more and more specialized.
I’m of the opinion that a specialization shouldn’t be completely shut out of a Hall of Fame. As a gigantic Devin Hester fan, I can’t imagine thinking a returner shouldn’t be allowed in the Football Hall of Fame.
The bar should be higher, of course, for specialists. And it is. There are only eight Hall of Fame relievers. The next lowest position has 17 (catcher and third base). There are 66 Hall of Fame starting pitchers.
It’s also hard for me to look ahead and think that it’s possible no future closer can top Wagner. There will be more Hall of Fame relievers. I agree the bar should be higher, but it shouldn’t be non-existent.
With the era of the multi-inning closer long gone, we aren’t very likely to see many closers moving forward get to 1,000 innings and, to reiterate, it seems like the penalty thrown on Wagner has been his workload.
As examples, Kenley Jansen has 868 ⅓ innings right now. Craig Kimbrel has 809 ⅔. Aroldis Chapman has 760.
I’m not saying any or all of those pitchers are Hall of Famers, but that’s the top three of the generation following Wagner.
The next wave of relievers with a chance to make it into the Hall of Fame includes Josh Hader and Emmanuel Clase. While Clase has 158 saves in 312 ⅔ innings, his chances are uncertain at this point.
With Billy Wagner’s induction into the Hall of Fame, there is hope for other deserving relievers like Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman. This opens the door for a new generation of fans to witness Hall of Fame-caliber relievers, unlike the older generation who may argue that the game was better in the past.
Another intriguing candidate on the ballot is Francisco Rodríguez, also known as “K-Rod.” He ranks sixth all-time in saves with 437 and has worked more innings than Wagner. However, his statistics fall slightly short in comparison, with a lower ERA and WHIP.
While Rodríguez falls slightly below Wagner in terms of Hall of Fame credentials, he is not far behind. His rate stats are impressive, but he lacks the overwhelming impact that Wagner had. Nevertheless, his candidacy is worth considering, and with time, his chances of making it into the Hall of Fame may improve.