The Cleveland Guardians scored a dramatic, season-saving walk-off victory on Thursday night in Game 3 of their American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees, cutting their deficit in the best-of-seven series to a 2-1 margin. David Fry notched the game-winning home run in the 10th inning to send the Cleveland faithful home happy. Fry’s clutch home run was the fourth and final jaw-dropping blast against a high-leverage reliever in the game.
The previous inning, Jhonkensy Noel had delivered a game-tying home run against Yankees closer Luke Weaver. Weaver, who had a phenomenal year for the Yankees, had allowed just two home runs since the start of September, including one on Sept. 2 and the other in Game 2.
Even before Noel’s blast, the Yankees had turned a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 victory with two outs in the top of the eighth inning, doing so in improbable fashion by homering in consecutive at-bats against Emmanuel Clase, the game’s best closer. Clase had been impregnable during the regular season, earning Cy Young Award support by amassing a 0.61 ERA and surrendering two home runs in 74 innings.
Just what led to each of those four big home runs? Let’s break them down.
1. Aaron Judge, 8th inning off Emmanuel Clase
If you know one thing about Clase, it’s that he’s an elite pitcher. If you know two things about Clase, it’s that he also has a great cutter. Predictably, he’s fond of the pitch, using it 78% of the time during the regular season.
Clase threw four pitches to Judge on Thursday night. Shocker: they were all cutters. Locational intent is tougher to discern now than in the past: some teams have taken to having their catcher always present targets over the middle of the plate as a means of improving control by giving them a greater area to target.
Even so, we know from historical data that Clase likes to throw his cutters on the inner half of the plate to right-handed batters. A lot of the time, that entails starting the ball in off the plate and allowing its natural cut to bring it back to the plate. Other times, Clase starts it within the zone and lets it track back toward the middle.
Either way, right-handed batters know they’re in for an uncomfortable at-bat. Clase’s cutter checked in at 99.5 mph during the regular season, the fastest in the majors. The movement profile on the pitch also graded as well above average: he had about a half foot more horizontal break than the average right-handed cutter, and nearly three inches more induced vertical break. Again, it’s a monster pitch.
Interestingly, Clase did not attack Judge the way you might’ve expected based on the aforementioned information. The first pitch, fouled off, was indeed located over the middle. Clase then went away on three consecutive pitches: one Judge fouled off, one he took for a ball, and then another swing — this one resulting in the game-tying homer:
That’s not a bad pitch by any measurement other than the result. It’s 99 mph. It has the same drop and cut profile as the previous offering … except this time it’s located on the outside corner. And so on. Yet Judge was able to get his barrel head to the ball, and, because he’s one of the strongest players in the sport’s history, he was able to muscle it out and over the right-field fence. That’s a good process and a bad result.
Judge, for his part, did not think it was gone off the bat.
“I thought it was too low,” Judge told reporters.
We’d write that Clase could throw that pitch another 100 times and never get burned on it. We’ll do one better and note that, during the regular season, that hypothetical was almost exactly on the nose. He threw 82 cutters to the outer third of the plate against righty batters: they resulted in four hits, with three of those being singles and one a double — that came on a defensive misplay versus Judge’s teammate Anthony Volpe.
Clase, perhaps reeling a bit from the Judge home run, did something unusual to begin the Stanton at-bat: he threw a slider.
We’ve already referenced how much Clase leans upon his cutter, but let’s put the slider into greater perspective. During the regular season, he threw 28 first-pitch sliders all year. He faced 270 batters. That works out to a first-pitch slider every, oh, time or so through the order. Yet on Thursday, he felt it was necessary against his second hitter.
Clase’s slider was fouled off by Stanton, opening things with an 0-1 count. From there, Clase would operate as he often has: spamming cutters on the inner half of the plate. Stanton would whiff on a high-and-tight cutter to put himself in an 0-2 hole. Stanton would then foul off three of the next four pitches, including a cutter that was well in, off the plate. The exception was a pitch he took for a ball: a slider down and away.
Clase couldn’t seem to retire Stanton with his cutter, so he went back to his slider for the seventh pitch of the sequence. That proved to be a mistake.
In spite of placing the pitch near the target area, Emmanuel Clase lost the battle as Giancarlo Stanton hit a powerful shot to right-center field. It’s worth noting that Clase’s slider is often overshadowed by his cutter, but it’s rare to see anyone hit it as Stanton did. Throughout the regular season, Clase only allowed one extra-base hit on his slider, which was this play against Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants.
The game wasn’t over yet, as it was now the Guardians’ turn to defy the odds. Jhonkensy Noel came up big in the 9th inning against Luke Weaver with a solid hit. Weaver, who typically mixes his fastball and changeup, faced Noel after pitching to three other Guardians. Noel might have recognized the pattern and capitalized on a changeup that caught too much of the plate to deliver a strong hit.
Moving on to the 10th inning, David Fry sealed the win for the Guardians with a game-winning home run off Clay Holmes. Holmes, who had a stellar postseason record prior to this game, struggled in this inning. Despite rarely giving up home runs on his sinker throughout the season, Fry managed to connect on an elevated pitch for the decisive shot.
Postseason baseball is unpredictable and thrilling, showcasing unexpected moments like these that keep fans engaged. Each player’s performance in these critical moments defied expectations and added to the excitement of the game. following sentence:
The cat chased the mouse around the house.
The mouse was chased around the house by the cat.