Crashes are a common occurrence at Talladega, making it a challenge for Cup Series drivers to avoid getting caught up in one. However, steering clear of a crash is crucial for drivers looking to secure a good finish and valuable points in the playoffs.
History shows that crashes are almost inevitable at Talladega. In the last nine races at the track, there have been at least six cautions in each race. The 2015 fall race had just three cautions, with the final caution resulting from an 11-car crash on the last lap.
With the high likelihood of large crashes at Talladega, making predictions for the race is difficult. While we may have an idea of who could perform well, one mistake from a driver can quickly take out multiple cars around them.
Standings
1. Kurt Busch (win at Las Vegas)
2. Kevin Harvick, 3,104
3. Denny Hamlin, 3,101
4. Brad Keselowski, 3,059
5. Martin Truex Jr., 3,058
6. Joey Logano, 3,054
7. Chase Elliott, 3,053
8. Alex Bowman, 3,052
9. Kyle Busch, 3,043
10. Clint Bowyer, 3,032
11. Aric Almirola, 3,025
12. Austin Dillon, 3,029
Talladega
Sunday, Oct. 3, 2 p.m. ET (NBC)
The favorite: Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (12) is the betting favorite after winning each of the last two Talladega races by slim margins. (AP Photo/Ray Carlin)
Best bets among the favorites
Denny Hamlin (+1100)
Hamlin is a top contender at +1100 along with Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. We’re leaning towards Hamlin due to his expertise at Daytona and Talladega in recent years and his secure position in the points standings. While Hamlin hasn’t won at Talladega since 2014, he has consistently finished in the top four in his recent starts at the track.
Aric Almirola (+1400)
Almirola presents great value with his impressive track record at Talladega. Since 2016, he has finished no lower than eighth at the track, including a win. While this streak may come to an end, Almirola remains a strong contender for another Talladega victory.
Best bets among the longshots
Clint Bowyer (+2500)
Bowyer, despite being considered a longshot at +2500, has a history of success at Talladega with two wins and multiple top-five finishes. While his recent performances have been inconsistent, Bowyer is still a formidable competitor at the track.
Matt DiBenedetto (+4000)
DiBenedetto, driving a Wood Brothers car affiliated with Team Penske, has the potential for a strong finish at Talladega. Despite his lack of top-10 finishes at the track, his equipment and team support make him a viable longshot for a surprising result.
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Nick Bromberg is a writer for Yahoo Sports.
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