Let’s get this part out of the way quickly: re-signing Lauri Markkanen, in a vacuum, was a good move by the Utah Jazz. His new contract, worth $238 million over five years, will almost certainly represent surplus value compared to production. The Jazz will be using roughly $24.1 million in cap space to bump Markkanen’s 2024-25 salary up to its maximum of around $42.2 million, and in exchange, they can create savings elsewhere in the deal, when that money is likely to matter more.
Even at his max, Markkanen is probably a reasonable bet. He’s 27, shoots at an elite level from practically everywhere, and most importantly, actually seems to want to be in Utah. That matters! Generally speaking, Utah isn’t an especially desirable market for younger professional basketball players, especially when they have clear paths to more traditionally enticing cities. As a rule of thumb, teams tend to want to have young All-Stars who want to play for them. You can’t exactly fault the Jazz for wanting to have Markkanen on their team, at least for the moment.
It’s everything else that raises question marks here. Markkanen’s past two seasons in Utah have followed similar paths. The Jazz outperform expectations, at least early on, thanks largely to Markkanen’s play and stellar coaching from Will Hardy. In February, Danny Ainge pulls the plug by trading away veterans. Markkanen plays far less down the stretch. The Jazz wind up picking toward the end of the lottery. Rinse. Repeat. In a loaded Western Conference, it’s hard to imagine the Jazz doing much better than that with their current roster. With so many truly deplorable rosters populating the bottom of the Eastern Conference, it’s hard to imagine them doing much worse. As it stands right now, the Jazz appear primed to pick somewhere between, say, No. 7 and No. 12 in the loaded 2025 NBA Draft.
This is where the Markkanen trade rumors came from. Markkanen is an All-Star. He’s not an All-NBA player. He is, for now, probably not a top-20 player in the NBA. He is also certainly in the top 35. That is a very good and very valuable player that is made quite a bit better and quite a bit more valuable by being placed next to a top-20 player in the NBA. You need multiple stars to genuinely compete. Shocking, I know. The Jazz seemed to acknowledge this with quiet pursuits of Mikal Bridges and Jrue Holiday, but both swim in Markkanen’s end of the pool. Very effective supporting pieces. Not likely leaders of true contenders.
Getting such a player to Utah is no easy task because, again, not a lot of stars tend to want to move there. Signing one in free agency seems almost impossible. Trading for one would certainly be harder than it would be in the glamour markets. Drafting one is the likeliest path the Jazz have to getting such a player, and Markkanen makes doing so substantially harder. There’s a reason they’re jettisoning veterans every February, after all. It’s hard to lose too many games with him on your team, and it’s hard to win too many games without someone better. They’re in middle-lottery purgatory at the moment. That doesn’t mean they can’t escape it. They have plenty of leftover assets from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves acquired in previous deals, and sometimes you find Kawhi Leonard or Giannis Antetokounmpo at No. 15. But exploring Markkanen trades was the cleanest path the Jazz had to maximizing their odds at drafting a star. That’s why they considered it in the first place.
It’s not fair to say whether or not they should have pulled the trigger without knowing what the full offers were. It is fair to wonder if Brandin Podziemski was a reasonable sticking point if the Warriors were willing to put control of all or most of their first-round picks on the table. Imagine a world in which the Jazz are among the NBA’s worst teams in the years preceding very strong 2025 and 2026 draft classes… and then having nearly infinite draft capital from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Warriors to trade with afterward. That’s about as asset-rich as any team can possibly be, depending on how those 2025 and 2026 picks pan out. This was, at least, a viable path for the Jazz, one that was almost certainly on the table and would not have required another February fake out. In short, it would have been a declaration of intent. We’d know what their plan is if they’d pulled the trigger.
Just because we don’t currently know what their plan is doesn’t mean they don’t have one. Danny Ainge’s track record buys him credibility other front offices lack. He’s earned enough trust to operate with a bit more opacity than, say, the Bulls or the Lakers, and the decision to retain Markkanen does largely align with his history of opportunism.
The 2007 Celtics tanked for Greg Oden and Kevin Durant and the 2008 Celtics won a championship because when that approach failed he saw a chance to pivot toward Ray Allen and eventually Kevin Garnett so he took it. Ainge’s roster-building philosophy has largely emphasized making the best move in the moment rather than sticking to a defined philosophy or outline. Trading for Isaiah Thomas in the middle of a rebuild followed that same approach. So have most of the infamous “almost Ainge” trades that didn’t materialize. When Ainge makes a move, really any move, he usually makes it more because the move is a major win in terms of isolated value rather than serving as a smaller step toward a larger goal.
When it comes to blockbuster decisions, he is more renowned for the ones he hasn’t made rather than the ones he has. However, it is important to recognize that the blockbusters he has executed have all been massive successes.
This brings us back to the starting point. The decision to re-sign Markkanen was a solid move, but it likely occurred because there were no better options available. If a lucrative trade offer for Markkanen had surfaced, he would have probably taken it. Alternatively, if there was a chance to exchange surplus picks for a suitable teammate for Markkanen, that route would have been pursued. Instead, the decision was made to delay any major moves, which may not have been a bad choice.
Due to the league’s extension rules, the Jazz cannot trade Markkanen for a year. However, they can revisit his market value next summer if necessary. The value of his new contract is not expected to decrease significantly, making it easier to match an $18 million salary compared to a max contract. Perhaps favorable circumstances will arise in the future. Just like how the Hawks unexpectedly won the lottery after participating in the Play-In Tournament, a stroke of luck could benefit the Jazz next spring. It is also possible that one of the young players currently on the team will excel. Alternatively, the Jazz could trade their veteran players and rebuild around Markkanen with a younger squad.
There are a lot of uncertainties involved in every team-building strategy unless, of course, you are signing prime players like LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Opting for a full-on tanking strategy raises just as many questions but offers more control over the outcome. While you cannot compel another team to trade a star player or guarantee that your mid-first-round picks will develop into stars, you can control where your draft pick lands to some extent, providing a certain level of predictability. This does not mean that tanking is the only correct approach—it simply offers a different set of advantages and disadvantages.
Based on the current information available, it is probable that the Jazz will finish in the mid-lottery range this season. While this may not be the most desirable outcome, it is not detrimental to the team’s long-term prospects. It is a gamble that Ainge can navigate the middle ground effectively and produce a better outcome than an all-out tanking strategy. Given his track record, it is a reasonable bet, especially since the Jazz can reassess their options in the trade market later on. There are plenty of reasons for optimism about the future of the Jazz, even though the exact path forward is still uncertain. statement: “The company will be implementing a new software system next month.”
Next month, the company is set to implement a new software system.