Julius Randle becomes eligible to sign a contract extension with the New York Knicks on Saturday, and the number he can sign for looks simultaneously too high and too low in the broader context of his team’s offseason. Based on the league’s veteran extension rules, Randle is eligible for a 40% raise in the first year of a new deal and 8% raises in all subsequent seasons. Such a deal would make an extension worth $181.5 million. Add in the $30.3 million he will make this season and he would be set to earn $211.8 million over the next five seasons.
On the “too high” end of the equation: Jalen Brunson just extended for only $156.5 million over four years. Jalen Brunson is a much better player than Julius Randle. On the “too low” end of the equation: OG Anunoby just re-signed for $212.5 million over five years, more than Randle would make over the same time period. Randle is a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA player. Anunoby, for all of his virtues, is, at the very least, less accomplished on an individual level than Randle is.
In short, placing a fair value on Randle, even within the context of the Knicks, is difficult. Doing so within the league as a whole? That’s a good deal harder. There was a time in league history in which a player with Randle’s resume was an automatic max. As we’ve learned with Brandon Ingram this offseason, that time is gone. The second apron killed it. The sub-superstar shot-creator is one of the player archetypes hit hardest by the new collective bargaining agreement. Nobody wants to get stuck holding the bag on the next Zach LaVine contract.
Randle is not LaVine. He’s much more than a bucket. He’s an all-around shot-creator who has grown leaps and bounds as a passer in New York and unlocks a bully-ball style that figures to be pretty effective against certain specific opponents. If the Celtics even have a weakness, it’s probably their lack of bulk. New York’s best chance at unseating Boston probably starts with Randle and Mitchell Robinson spending seven games muscling Kristaps Porzingis out of the paint. There’s something to be said for a modern power forward that at least partially checks the “stretch-4” spacing box without sacrificing the old-school traits that were once prized at that position.
Of course, if Randle married those skills perfectly, his salary wouldn’t be up for debate. He’s not LaVine, but he’s not LeBron James either. His on-ball work is messy. He settles for bad jumpers. He turns the ball over. He’s the sort of creator that’s great at soaking up possessions but not as adept at maximizing them. Run everything through him and he’ll keep you afloat. The Knicks obviously don’t need to run everything through him anymore. That’s what Brunson is for. But if you don’t need quite as many innings to be eaten and you’re not getting the sort of efficiency bump you’d hope for out of a pecking order drop, what exactly are you getting out of Randle that justifies a $45 million per year extension?
Well… we don’t know quite yet. On the surface, Randle looks like a player whose value dips as his roster improves. He’s settled in as roughly a 35% catch-and-shooter on 3-pointers. That’s… fine. He’s never been an especially strong screening weapon in the pick-and-roll, preferring to create his shots on the ball and lacking the sort of obvious weapon (Mitchell Robinson’s verticality, Isaiah Hartenstein’s floater) that have made New York’s centers so dangerous in that play. His defense is inconsistent, and New York’s utter refusal to use him as a backup center so far becomes much more significant with Hartenstein gone. On-ball power forwards that aren’t great defenders or catch-and-shoot weapons become less valuable the less they get the ball.
The Knicks can still give him the ball plenty. They don’t necessarily need to. Mikal Bridges was underqualified to lead Brooklyn’s offense. He was also overqualified as a glorified role player in Phoenix. There’s a world in which he, not Randle, emerges as Brunson’s sidekick and New York’s secondary creator. Donte DiVincenzo can dribble. Deuce McBride wants to dribble. These aren’t the 2021 Knicks anymore. They don’t need Randle to do everything.
And if Randle isn’t doing everything, justifying a $181.5 million extension becomes much harder to justify. That’s especially true in light of this team’s overall finances. Right now, the Knicks have nine players under contract for the 2025-26 season and roughly $53.3 million in second apron room. Re-sign Randle at his max and you’re immediately down to around $10 million in second apron space. That’s barely enough to fill out a roster, much less pay the Hartenstein replacement the Knicks are going to need to find at some point. Things get even tighter during the 2026-27 campaign, when Bridges starts whatever his next deal is and Robinson will either need to be re-signed or replaced.
It’s very, very hard in second apron world to pay four players a lot of money. Brunson, for all of the money he left on the table, is still earning a lot of money. Bridges isn’t quite there yet. Even if he takes a discount, he’ll join Brunson in the “very well-paid even below the max” club. There are a lot of role-player mouths to feed. Josh Hart isn’t going anywhere. Neither is DiVincenzo. Someone is going to be playing center for the Knicks and getting well compensated for it throughout this run. Anunoby is earning more than all of them.
Anunoby is an instructive comparison here, considering where the league is going.
The player in question may not have the same level of accomplishments as Randle, but he is a much smoother fit. He adds value to the team regardless of how much or how little he is involved in the game. Considered one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, he can effectively guard players across different positions. He is always a threat from the three-point line, and while he may not be a playmaker, he excels at making simple passes and taking advantage of defensive mistakes. His versatility allows him to thrive on any team, much like Bridges. It’s no wonder that many teams in the league have shown interest in both players.
Randle’s fit with the Knicks may be ideal for now, but the future is uncertain. There are scenarios where he thrives as a secondary creator on the team, and others where his shot-creation abilities may not be as crucial. The question remains: what happens when his offensive output is overshadowed by the need for solid defense from players like Josh Hart? Unlike Bridges and Anunoby, finding a new home for Randle may prove to be challenging due to his specific skill set and contract demands.
As the season progresses, Randle could choose to wait and see how things unfold. However, this approach comes with risks, such as being traded before securing a new deal or facing a tough free-agent market. While the potential rewards of waiting until next summer for a better contract offer are enticing, the uncertainty of the situation makes it a gamble. Finding a balance between Randle’s value to the team and the financial constraints of the Knicks will be a complex negotiation for the front office. Ultimately, the decision on Randle’s future will be a crucial test for the team as they strive to build a championship-winning roster. paragraph in your own words:
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