There’s the eye test, and there’s the numbers, and in between, there’s a whole lot of argument.
It’s a common tale, in the NBA and elsewhere: A player looks the part of a bona fide star, and maybe even produces admirably in certain statistical categories, but lagging performance in other, more holistic and perhaps finer-tuned metrics leaves open the question of just how much that player “contributes to” or “drives” winning. (“If he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”)
That, to some degree, has been the rap on Paolo Banchero through two pro seasons that traced a very familiar path on the star map. No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Instant-offense 20-point scorer and no-doubt-about-it selection as Rookie of the Year. Across-the-board offensive upticks in his sophomore season, resulting in an All-Star nod and his first playoff appearance, driving the Orlando Magic back to the postseason after a three-year drought.
But as impressive as the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Duke product’s raw production was, his means of arriving at it — midrange and 3-point jumpers accounting for more than 60% of his field-goal attempts, despite him making fewer than 40% of them — earned Banchero that most divisive of tags among players vying for modern stardom: inefficient.
The Magic finished bottom-10 in points scored per possession in Banchero’s first two seasons despite his bucket-getting and actually scored more effectively with him off the floor last season. Among 65 qualifying players to use at least 25% of their teams’ offensive possessions over the past two seasons, Banchero was tied for 62nd in effective field-goal percentage, which accounts for 3-pointers being worth more than 2-pointers. (Right alongside him? Russell Westbrook.) That goes a long way toward explaining why so many advanced metrics — estimated plus-minus, LEBRON, DARKO, value over replacement player, win shares per 48 minutes, you name it — have pegged Paolo more as “pretty OK” than “premier operator,” despite box-score stat lines that put him on par with the likes of young Michael, LeBron and Luka.
Sometimes, though, the space between the eye test and the numbers disappears, and when they start saying the same thing, there’s no room for argument or misinterpretation; what’s left is the truth, or something like it. And holy hell, was Paolo Banchero ever the truth Monday night:
Banchero bulldozed the Pacers with panache and precision, scoring a career-high 50 points — the first 50-ball of this still toddling 2024-25 NBA season — on 16-for-26 shooting to lead Orlando to a 119-115 win. He contributed to winning elsewhere, too, pulling down a game-high 13 rebounds and dishing nine assists in 40 minutes on his way to multiple entries in the history books.
With his 37-point blitz through two quarters, Banchero became just the third player in the last 27 years to put up 35 points, five rebounds and five assists in a half, and tied Tracy McGrady for the highest-scoring half in Magic history, according to Justin Kubatko at Statitudes. By the time he’d finished, Banchero had become just the fourth Magic player ever to score 50, and only the fourth player ever to go for 50 and 10 before turning 22.
Even applying the stat-buff that is Playing Against the Pacers’ Defense, Banchero’s performance was breathtaking. It’s not just that he scored 19 points on nine shots in the first quarter, added 18 more on eight attempts in the second and bounced back from a slow third with nine more on just three shots in the tell-tale fourth. It was, if you’ll forgive some repetition, his means of arriving at it.
How Banchero Juggernauted through Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin, Isaiah Jackson, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard and whoever else Rick Carlisle could think to send after him, those sledgehammer shoulders powering through all resistance without losing any momentum, always steaming forward. How he played off the drive with the pull-up, eating up the space that résumé and results afforded him by locking into a shot-making rhythm.
How he leveraged the extra help that Indiana sent, insufficiently and unsuccessfully, by making the easy pass to deliver nine assists, with seven producing 3-pointers, layups or dunks.
The level of control he displayed over the game was truly impressive, as evidenced by his ability to draw 13 fouls (imagine how much higher his score could have been if he hadn’t missed seven free throws). This led to an impressive 81 points and a commanding presence that ultimately secured another victory for the Magic. Their offense has notably improved this season, complementing last season’s second-ranked defense. Currently, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA for points scored per possession, a significant improvement from last season. By focusing more on long-range shots and shifting away from midrange attempts, the team has seen positive results reflected in the shot selection of their All-Star player. As they continue to emphasize outside shooting, it opens up opportunities for their interior offense to thrive, particularly with Banchero excelling at attacking the rim and drawing shooting fouls. The Magic’s shooters have been performing well from beyond the arc, contributing to a potential rise in overall shooting accuracy and transforming their offense from a bottom-10 to an average one. With a player like Banchero leading the charge, the Magic have the potential to make a significant impact in the league. His impressive performance has not gone unnoticed by his teammates, who believe he is on the path to becoming a household name. While scoring 50 points in a game is a remarkable feat, the true test lies in how the Magic can combine their offensive improvements with their elite defense to make a strong playoff push. If successful, they could establish themselves as a formidable force in the league, with Banchero emerging as a new superstar. The document needs to be rewritten in a more concise manner.